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Ethiopia Boosts Spending by 21%, Eyes IMF Program for Economic Relief

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Northern Ethiopia - Investors King

Ethiopia has announced a 21% increase in its 2025 budget, marking the first budget since defaulting on a Eurobond payment and committing to economic reform discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The nation’s Finance Minister, Ahmed Shide, revealed the new budget details to lawmakers on Tuesday, outlining plans to spend 971.2 billion birr ($16.9 billion) in the fiscal year starting July 2024.

The increased budget reflects Ethiopia’s commitment to addressing its economic challenges head-on. Despite the heightened expenditure, the fiscal deficit is projected to remain stable at 2.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), unchanged from the current fiscal year.

Financing the Deficit

Minister Shide outlined a plan to cover the 358.5 billion-birr deficit through a combination of local and foreign borrowing.

The domestic borrowing component will be managed via government treasury bills and medium-term bonds. Shide emphasized that until substantial external donor support is secured, Ethiopia will continue to rely heavily on its domestic markets to finance budget deficits.

“While the government has secured some external financing from the World Bank and the European Union, negotiating an IMF program will be crucial to alleviate pressure on local banks and secure overall debt relief,” said Giulia Filocca, a senior analyst at Standard & Poor’s for sovereign and international public finance ratings.

IMF Program and Economic Reforms

An agreement with the IMF is seen as a pivotal step for Ethiopia. The nation failed to remit a $33 million coupon payment for its $1 billion bond in December 2023, leading to agreements with some creditors, including the Paris Club, to suspend debt repayments.

In exchange, Ethiopia is expected to reach a staff-level agreement with the IMF, which will likely include economic reforms such as devaluing the birr currency.

“Our expectation is that an IMF program will be signed this year, but the timeline remains unclear due to ongoing political developments and challenges over foreign-exchange reforms,” added Filocca.

Budget Highlights

The new budget includes 451.3 billion birr for recurrent spending, 283.2 billion birr for capital expenditure, and 236.7 billion birr allocated for regional subsidies.

The government projects income of 612.7 billion birr, with tax revenue expected to contribute 502 billion birr and non-tax income 61.6 billion birr. Sector budget support is anticipated to bring in 7.3 billion birr, with aid and grants expected to add 41.8 billion birr.

Economic Outlook

Ethiopia’s economy is forecasted to expand by 8.4% in the coming fiscal year, up from an expected 7.9% growth rate in the current period. The budget increase is designed to support this growth trajectory by enhancing public investment and stimulating economic activity.

“Our partnership with the IMF and other international financial institutions will be key to ensuring Ethiopia’s economic resilience and sustainable growth,” Minister Shide concluded. “We are committed to implementing the necessary reforms to secure a brighter economic future for our country.”

As Ethiopia navigates its economic challenges, the government’s proactive approach to increasing spending and engaging with the IMF reflects a strategic effort to restore fiscal stability and drive long-term economic development.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Economy

FG Awards N158bn Lekki Port Service Lanes Construction to Dangote 

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The Federal Government of Nigeria has awarded the construction of service lanes connecting the Lekki Deep Sea Port through Epe to the Shagamu-Benin Expressway to the Dangote Group, one of the leading private sector giants in the country.

The approval for the construction of the project was made at the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu.

Investors King learned that the project which seeks to reduce traffic congestion within Lagos, particularly with the concentration of industries in the Lekki Free Trade Zone, is worth N158 billion.

A statement issued by Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to President Tinubu on Information and Strategy disclosed that the project will be handled by Dangote Industries under the Federal Government’s Road Infrastructure Development Fund and Refurbishment Investment Tax Credit Scheme.

Aside from tackling traffic challenges, the planned service lanes are expected to facilitate hitch-free movement of goods, easing pressure on Lagos’ internal road networks and improving connectivity to other regions.

The Dangote Group benefits from reduced tax liabilities by carrying out public projects that contribute to national development.

Under the Federal Government’s Road Infrastructure Development and Refurbishment Investment Tax Credit Scheme, companies like Dangote Industries can receive tax credits in exchange for funding and completing public infrastructure projects, allowing them to “pay” for the project through future tax deductions.

As of August 2024, nine major road projects across the country were being funded by Dangote Group under this scheme, according to a review by the Ministry of Works.

With the recent FEC approval of the construction of service lanes from the Lekki Deep Sea Port through Epe to the Shagamu-Benin Expressway, the number of road projects being handled by Dangote Group has now risen to ten, making it the top private sector player in the scheme.

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Dangote Advocates for Full Subsidy Removal, Says Refinery Will Tackle Consumption Challenges

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The founder and Chief Executive of Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, has urged the President Bola Tinubu-led government to place its trust in the Dangote Refinery.

In a 26-minute interview with Bloomberg Television in New York on Monday, Dangote stated that the refinery would address many of Nigeria’s issues, particularly the high consumption rates that have turned the nation into an importer of most goods.

However, the businessman also called on the Federal Government to fully eliminate fuel subsidies.

According to him, now is the right time to remove fuel subsidies so that the country can determine its actual petrol consumption.

He said, “Subsidy is a very sensitive issue. Once you are subsidizing something, people will inflate the price, and the government will end up paying more than they should. It is the right time to get rid of subsidies.”

He added, “This refinery will resolve a lot of issues. It will provide clarity on Nigeria’s real consumption because, right now, no one can give a definite figure. Some say 60 million litres of gasoline per day, while others say less. But once we start producing, everything will be measurable.

“Everything will be accounted for, especially with the trucks and ships loading from us. We will track them to ensure the oil stays within Nigeria, which I believe will help the government save a significant amount of money. Now is the right time to remove the subsidy.”

Dangote further revealed that the responsibility for removing subsidies rests solely with the government.

He continued, “We have the option of either producing and exporting or selling locally. As a large private company, we do need to make a profit. We have built something worth $20bn, so, of course, we have to generate revenue.

“The removal of subsidies is entirely up to the government, not us. We cannot adjust the price, but I think the government will have to compromise on certain things. In the end, the subsidy will have to be removed.”

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Fed Slashes Interest Rates by 0.5% to Steady Job Market and Inflation

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The Federal Reserve on Wednesday enacted its first interest rate cut since the early days of the Covid pandemic, slicing half a percentage point off benchmark rates in an effort to head off a slowdown in the labor market.

With both the jobs picture and inflation softening, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee chose to lower its key overnight borrowing rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, affirming market expectations that had recently shifted from an outlook for a cut half that size.

Outside of the emergency rate reductions during Covid, the last time the FOMC cut by half a point was in 2008 during the global financial crisis.

The decision lowers the federal funds rate to a range between 4.75%-5%. While the rate sets short-term borrowing costs for banks, it spills over into multiple consumer products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

In addition to this reduction, the committee indicated through its “dot plot” the equivalent of 50 more basis points of cuts by the end of the year, close to market pricing. The matrix of individual officials’ expectations pointed to another full percentage point in cuts by the end of 2025 and a half point in 2026. In all, the dot plot shows the benchmark rate coming down about 2 percentage points beyond Wednesday’s move.

“The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the post-meeting statement said.

The decision to ease came “in light of progress on inflation and the balance of risks.” Notably, the FOMC vote was 11-1, with Governor Michelle Bowman preferring a quarter-point move. Bowman’s dissent was the first by a Fed governor since 2005, though a number of regional presidents have cast “no” votes during the period.

“We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with this inflation. That’s what we’re trying to do, and I think you could take today’s action as a sign of our strong commitment to achieve that goal,” Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.

Trading was volatile after the decision with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping as much as 375 points after it was released, before easing somewhat as investors digested the news and considered what it suggests about the state of the economy.

Stocks ended slightly lower on the day while Treasury yields bounced higher.

“This is not the beginning of a series of 50 basis point cuts. The market was thinking to itself, if you go 50, another 50 has a high likelihood. But I think [Powell] really dashed that idea to some extent,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “It’s not that he thinks that’s not going to happen, it’s that he’s not he’s not pre-committing to that to happen. That is the right call.”

The committee noted that “job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.” FOMC officials raised their expected unemployment rate this year to 4.4%, from the 4% projection at the last update in June, and lowered the inflation outlook to 2.3% from 2.6% previous. On core inflation, the committee took down its projection to 2.6%, a 0.2 percentage point reduction from June.

The committee expects the long-run neutral rate to be around 2.9%, a level that has drifted higher as the Fed has struggled to get inflation down to 2%.

The decision comes despite most economic indicators looking fairly solid.

Gross domestic product has been rising steadily, and the Atlanta Fed is tracking 3% growth in the third quarter based on continuing strength in consumer spending. Moreover, the Fed chose to cut even though most gauges indicate inflation well ahead of the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed’s preferred measure shows inflation running around 2.5%, well below its peak but still higher than policymakers would like.

However, Powell and other policymakers in recent days have expressed concern about the labor market. While layoffs have shown little sign of rebounding, hiring has slowed significantly. In fact, the last time the monthly hiring rate was this low – 3.5% as a share of the labor force – the unemployment rate was above 6%.

At his news conference following the July meeting, Powell remarked that a 50 basis point cut was “not something we’re thinking about right now.”

For the moment, at least, the move helps settle a contentious debate over how forceful the Fed should have been with the initial move.

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