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Euro Dips to Month-Long Low After Macron Calls Snap Vote

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The euro slid to its weakest level in nearly a month on Monday, falling as much as 0.3% against the dollar after French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap legislative vote in the wake of the European Parliament elections.

This political uncertainty coupled with a strong US jobs report, also triggered declines in several Asian currencies.

Macron’s decision to call for an early legislative election came after far-right parties made notable gains in the European Parliament elections, though centrist parties are expected to retain their majority across the European Union.

The announcement caused the euro to retreat, mirroring the fall in French bond futures.

Asian markets responded to the developments with the South Korean won and Malaysian ringgit both slipping.

Also, MSCI’s Asia-Pacific stock index edged lower, although Japan’s Topix index rose following revised data showing that Japan’s economic contraction was less severe than initially estimated.

Markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia remained closed due to public holidays, leading to lighter trading volumes in the region.

Adding to the market’s cautious sentiment, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries climbed for a third consecutive day. This increase was driven by Friday’s solid US jobs report, which suggested that the labor market remains robust despite high interest rates and inflation.

This data has led to a reassessment of the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the near term, easing concerns about an imminent economic slowdown.

“We’re still expecting a soft landing in the States — as long as that’s a scenario, I think Asian markets have upside potential,” said Lorraine Tan, director of Asia equity research at Morningstar Inc., on Bloomberg Television.

Investors are now looking ahead to several key events that could influence market sentiment further.

The Federal Reserve is set to update its interest rate forecasts on Wednesday, which will be closely scrutinized for any indications of future monetary policy adjustments.

The Bank of Japan is also scheduled to make an announcement on Friday, with economists predicting that it will maintain its current policy stance.

Lloyd Chan, a currency strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., said, “Asia markets will take their cue from the FOMC and BOJ meetings, as well as the US CPI data, which will be released just hours before the Fed’s policy rate decision. Asia FX could face volatility amid the rise in US yields.”

The broader geopolitical landscape also remains tense. In the Middle East, Israeli political instability increased as Benny Gantz resigned from the emergency government, calling for elections and criticizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict with Hamas.

This move leaves Netanyahu more dependent on his right-wing coalition partners.

As the week progresses, markets will also be watching for other significant data releases, including UK wage numbers, China inflation figures, and US consumer and producer price indexes.

These reports will provide further insights into the global economic outlook and potentially add to market volatility.

Overall, the euro’s dip and the broader market reactions underscore the complex interplay of political and economic factors currently influencing global financial markets. As traders digest the implications of these developments, volatility is likely to remain a key theme.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Forex

Nigeria’s Remittances Surge 163% in Five Months, Says CBN

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U.S dollar - Investors King

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reported a substantial increase in direct remittances, recording a 163% surge over the past five months.

The data reveals that remittances totaled $138.56 million in January, $39.14 million in February, $104.90 million in March, $193.31 million in April, and $365.44 million in May 2024.

This dramatic rise from April to May alone accounted for a 90% increase, amounting to an additional $172 million, culminating in a robust total of $365.44 million.

The CBN attributes this growth to strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing foreign currency remittance flows through formal channels.

The CBN has taken decisive steps to respond to various challenges that previously hindered these flows, including the in-principle approval of 14 new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs).

This move is designed to streamline processes, eliminate bottlenecks, and encourage more remittances through official avenues.

Sidi Ali, the Acting Director of Corporate Communications at the CBN, emphasized the bank’s commitment to facilitating smoother remittance transactions.

“We are wasting no time driving progress to remove any bottlenecks hindering flows through formal channels permanently. We have a determined pathway and a sequenced approach to tackling all challenges ahead, working hand in hand with key stakeholders in the remittance industry,” Ali stated.

The recent regulatory changes also played a pivotal role in this positive trend. In January 2024, the CBN removed the exchange rate cap previously imposed on IMTOs, allowing for more flexible currency quoting.

This regulatory adjustment was complemented by revised operational guidelines and increased licensing fees for IMTOs, underscoring the CBN’s efforts to bolster the sector’s operational standards and financial requirements.

This surge in remittances comes at a crucial time as Nigeria seeks to stabilize its economy amidst rising external debt obligations.

Recent reports indicate that the Federal Government spent $2.18 billion on debt servicing between January and May 2024, highlighting the significance of foreign exchange earnings from remittances.

The increase in remittance inflows aligns with broader economic strategies aimed at diversifying revenue sources away from oil-dependent revenues.

Despite focusing on domestic borrowing, Nigeria faces substantial external debt servicing obligations.

This fiscal challenge underscores the critical role of remittances in bolstering foreign exchange reserves and mitigating external debt pressures.

The CBN’s proactive measures and collaborations with IMTOs are expected to sustain this positive momentum in remittance inflows.

An economic expert at Lotus Beta Analytics, Shadrach Israel, noted that the substantial increase in direct remittances underscores the effectiveness of recent regulatory reforms and strategic initiatives by the CBN.

“These efforts not only enhance the transparency and efficiency of remittance channels but also contribute significantly to Nigeria’s economic resilience amidst evolving global economic landscapes,” Israel said.

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Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 24th June 2024

As of June 24th, 2024, the black market rate stands at ₦1,510 per USD, reflecting ongoing fluctuations in Nigeria’s forex landscape.

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The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 24th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,510.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,480 and sold it at ₦1,470 on Monday, June 18th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,510
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,500

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

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Forex

Zimbabwe Mandates Partial Tax Payments in New Bullion-Backed Currency

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In a strategic move to reinforce its new bullion-backed currency, Zimbabwe will require businesses to pay a portion of their taxes in Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG), Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube announced on Wednesday.

The regulations, aimed at enhancing the stability and acceptance of the ZiG, are part of broader efforts to strengthen the nation’s fiscal and monetary framework.

“The Treasury is stepping up to complement the fiscal and monetary policy framework aimed at further anchoring the currency, exchange rate, and price stability,” Ncube stated in an emailed announcement.

Since 2020, Zimbabwe has allowed taxes to be settled in the currency businesses predominantly use. However, under the new system, specific ratios will dictate the portions of taxes that must be paid in ZiG and other foreign currencies, alongside those that can solely be settled in the new unit.

The ZiG, introduced on April 5, 2024, replaced the Zimbabwean dollar, which had depreciated by 80% against the US dollar in the official market earlier this year.

Backed by 2.5 tons of gold and $100 million in foreign currency reserves held by the central bank, the ZiG is part of Zimbabwe’s broader strategy to avoid the pitfalls that led to the collapse of its previous six currencies.

“The changes will add to a raft of measures aimed at ensuring the ZiG doesn’t suffer the fate of its predecessors,” Ncube stated.

The finance minister highlighted that the new tax policy is designed to foster greater stability in the ZiG’s value and ensure it becomes a cornerstone of Zimbabwe’s economy. The government hopes that by requiring businesses to transact in ZiG, it will boost demand for the currency, thereby strengthening its position in the market.

Additional measures to bolster the ZiG include urging miners to increase gold production and extending the currency crackdown to include more stringent regulations on companies. These efforts are geared toward ensuring a steady influx of gold to back the currency, thus reinforcing its value and credibility.

Economists have noted that the success of the ZiG will depend heavily on these regulatory measures and the government’s ability to maintain a stable economic environment. The ZiG’s introduction has already shown a “positive impact” on the economy, but sustained confidence in the currency will be crucial.

“Zimbabwe’s new tax policy is a bold step towards economic stability,” said John Mangudya, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe. “By ensuring that a portion of taxes are paid in ZiG, we are creating a consistent demand for the currency, which will help maintain its value and prevent the hyperinflation that plagued our previous currencies.”

The move has received a mixed reaction from the business community. While some see it as a necessary step towards stabilizing the economy, others are concerned about the immediate impact on cash flow and the complexities of adapting to the new system.

“We understand the government’s need to stabilize the currency,” said Takura Mugaga, CEO of the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce. “However, we urge the authorities to consider the implementation challenges businesses might face and provide adequate support during the transition period.”

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