Naira

Nigeria’s Naira to Stabilize at 1,450 to Dollar by Year-End, Fitch Ratings Predicts

Published

3 weeks ago

June 5, 2024

Fitch Ratings, the international credit rating agency, has forecasted that Nigeria’s currency, the naira, will stabilize at 1,450 against the United States dollar by the end of the year.

This prediction comes amidst ongoing reforms in the foreign exchange market and other sectors of the Nigerian economy.

Gaimin Nonyane, Director of Sovereigns at Fitch Ratings, revealed this projection during a post-sovereign rating webinar on Tuesday, which focused on Nigeria and Egypt.

Nonyane highlighted the recent revision of Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to Positive from Stable by Fitch Ratings in May.

The agency affirmed the IDR at ‘B-‘, citing reforms in the foreign exchange market, oil industry, and monetary policy over the past year as contributing factors to the positive outlook.

Speaking specifically about the trajectory of the naira, Nonyane acknowledged the currency’s recent struggles since its floating in June 2023.

He stated, “The Naira is still finding its feet. It is still in price discovery mode. So we would expect a lot of volatility in the near term.”

However, he expressed optimism regarding the potential impact of anticipated multilateral donor funding in the third quarter of the year, coupled with improved oil receipts, in reducing volatility.

Fitch Ratings projects that the naira will average about 1,200 per dollar throughout the year and ultimately stabilize at 1,450 against the dollar by the end of 2024.

Looking ahead to the following year, Nonyane noted a gradual depreciation of the naira, contingent upon the momentum of foreign exchange reforms.

Regarding the possibility of further upgrades for Nigeria, Nonyane outlined key factors that could contribute to a sustainable recovery, including a robust foreign exchange position, sustained current account surpluses, reduced inflation, greater stability in foreign exchange markets, and stronger domestic non-oil revenue mobilization.

However, he emphasized the importance of addressing Nigeria’s low tax revenue base, which currently poses challenges for fiscal sustainability.

In terms of the oil sector, Fitch Ratings anticipates a recovery that will support the country’s current account in the short term.

The agency also expects an increase in oil refining capacity with the ramp-up of the Dangote refinery, which is projected to commence operations later this year or early next year.

This development is expected to reduce transport costs, lower refined oil imports, and ease foreign exchange demands.

Despite recent fluctuations, Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves have remained relatively stable, hovering around $32.7 billion.

Fitch Ratings projects a modest rise in reserves by year-end, driven by oil receipts, multilateral funding, and potential commercial borrowing. However, the agency warns of external risks, particularly concerning the significant portion of reserves tied up in bank swaps.

The anticipated $2.25 billion funding package from the World Bank, expected to be considered by the board in the coming weeks, underscores Nigeria’s efforts to bolster its economy.

This funding, characterized by its low interest rates and lack of conditionalities, reflects international confidence in Nigeria’s economic policies and reforms.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Nigeria’s Foreign-Exchange Woes Intensify with Prolonged Naira Decline

Published

11 hours ago

June 28, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The Nigerian naira continues its downward spiral, making its ninth consecutive day of depreciation against the US dollar and the worst-performing currency in the first half of 2024.

The naira weakened by 0.2% to 1,510 per dollar by the close on Thursday, according to FMDQ.

This persistent decline represents the longest losing streak since July 2017, resulting in a year-to-date devaluation of 40%.

The naira’s performance stands out as the worst among global currencies tracked by Bloomberg, aside from Lebanon’s pound, which is undergoing severe economic turmoil and dollarization.

Analysts attribute the naira’s plunge to a combination of steep devaluation, insufficient dollar liquidity, and market volatility, which have hampered efforts to stabilize the currency.

“While the naira is undervalued and has seen significant adjustment, the supply of dollars needs to improve for the currency to be supported,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in London. “Portfolio inflows have yet to pick up, even amid still-attractive local rates.”

Nigeria has been grappling with chronic foreign-exchange shortages and instability, largely due to reduced crude oil production and a lack of economic diversification.

The local unit has lost approximately 70% of its value against the dollar since June 2023, following policy changes introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration aimed at attracting foreign inflows to revive the economy.

The currency experienced heightened volatility between mid-April and May, driven by the imbalance between demand and supply for the greenback.

However, this volatility moderated in June with an improvement in dollar inflows.

Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso recently expressed optimism about the future stability of the naira.

“The currency’s volatility may be a thing of the past,” Cardoso stated, highlighting efforts to promote investor confidence.

Since assuming office in September, Cardoso has increased interest rates by 750 basis points to 26.25%, cleared a foreign-exchange backlog, and negotiated multilateral dollar inflows to support the naira.

Despite these measures, the naira’s decline underscores the challenges faced by Nigeria’s economy. The currency’s depreciation has been accompanied by inflationary pressures, complicating monetary policy efforts and economic planning.

Besides the naira, other African currencies such as Egypt’s pound and Ghana’s cedi have also been among the world’s worst performers in the first half of 2024.

“Adjustment and rebalancing in 2024 after years of a heavily managed and misaligned currency regime account for the weakening of these currencies,” Gadio noted. For the naira, “what will matter going forward is whether it can stabilize on improving foreign-exchange inflows and perhaps see some appreciation.”

The ongoing decline of the naira highlights the urgent need for comprehensive economic reforms and effective foreign-exchange management to restore confidence in the currency and ensure sustainable economic growth. As Nigeria navigates these challenges, the path to stabilization remains fraught with uncertainty.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 24th June 2024

As of June 24th, 2024, the black market rate stands at ₦1,510 per USD, reflecting ongoing fluctuations in Nigeria’s forex landscape.

Published

5 days ago

June 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 24th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,510.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,480 and sold it at ₦1,470 on Monday, June 18th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,510
Selling Rate: ₦1,500

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 18th June 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 18th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,480.

Published

2 weeks ago

June 18, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 18th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,480.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,510 and sold it at ₦1,500 on Monday, June 17th, 2024.

This indicates an improvement in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.