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Decent Trade Surplus Recorded in FY2023 – Coronation Economic Note

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Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers

The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade in goods shows the total value of trade grew by +128.6% y/y to N26.8trn in Q4 ’23 vs +53.2% y/y in Q3 ‘23.

The total export value increased by 22.7% q/q to N12.7trn compared with N10.4trn recorded in Q3 ‘24. This can be partly attributed to c.20% depreciation of NGN/USD recorded in Q4 ‘23.

For FY2023, total exports increased by 34.2% y/y to N35.96trn. The import value increased by 56.04% q/q to N14.1bn from N9.0trn in Q3 ‘23. We note that imports were affected by the weaker naira following the fx liberalization policy.

For FY2023, imports increased by 40.4% to N35.92trn. Total trade as a percentage of nominal GDP (2023) stood at 30.4% in 2023, compared with 26.3% in 2022. In FY2023, Nigeria recorded a surplus of +N44.8bn.

According to the NBS report, the top six import sources were China N6.6trn (19.5%), India N2.8trn (N8.5%), USA N2.2trn (6.6%), Netherlands N1.8trn (5.3%), Brazil N810bn (2.4%), and the UK N688bn (2.0%). These countries collectively accounted for 44.4% of total imports in 2023. Imports from ECOWAS stood at N168bn, representing 19% of total imports within Africa.

Manufactured goods accounted for the largest share of imports, 51.2% and its import value grew significantly by 66.9%y/y. Following closely, petroleum oil products accounted for 33.42% of imports, and grew by 18.8%y/y. Raw materials accounted for 8.4%. Conversely, solid minerals registered a modest share of 0.53%. Agricultural goods followed suit with a 6.35% share, experiencing a notable growth in value of 22.3% y/y.

Regarding exports, the top six export destinations include Netherlands with exports valued at N4.5trn (12.6%), Spain N3.3trn (N9.4%), India N3.0trn (8.4%), the United States N2.6trn (7.3%), France N2.3trn (6.5%), and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) N2.2trn (6.2%). These destinations collectively accounted for 50.4% of total exports in 2023.

Crude oil accounted for 80.6% of total exports in 2023, its export value grew by 37.4% y/y to N29trn vs +46.4%y/y recorded in 2022. Based on a separate data from the NURPC, average crude oil production (condensates inclusive) in 2023 was 1.47mbpd compared with 1.38mbpd in 2022.

This is lower than the OPEC production quota for Nigeria which was 1.7mbpd.

Non-oil exports grew by 22.2% y/y to N6.9trn and accounted for 19.4% of total exports. Superior quality cocoa beans, cut flowers, sesamum seeds, soybeans, natural cocoa butter, soya beans, crude groundnut oil, frozen shrimps and prawns, shelled cashew nuts, crude palm kernel oil, and ginger among others were featured as top export commodities in 2023.

Nigeria exported goods worth N2.2trn to ECOWAS, compared with N1.7trn in 2022. This represented 60.2% of total exports within Africa. The most adopted port for exports in Q4 ’23 was the Apapa Port. Goods worth N11.9trn exited the country through this port which accounted for 94.4% of total exports. Other ports widely used include Tin can Island N(386.8bn), and Port Harcourt (N241.3bn)

GLOBAL FOCUS/REGIONAL TRADE

According to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), merchandise trade declined by -8.2% y/y to US11.8trn in Q3 ‘23 compared with USD12.9trn recorded in the corresponding period of Q3 ‘22.

Meanwhile, on a q/q basis, total merchandise trade declined marginally by -1.4%. The decline can be partly attributed to weakened global demand as well as shifts in its composition toward domestic services, the effects of a stronger USD and rising trade barriers.

The Black Sea grain deal was terminated by Russia in July ’23, leading to rising food prices in import-dependent countries. However, Ukraine discovered a new corridor (the Danube River) to export its grains. As at end ’23, Ukraine had exported over 5.6 million metric tons of grain and other products through this corridor.

As at end-February ’24, the price of wheat moderated by -8.5% m/m to close at USD576.3/MT. The price of wheat recorded a downward trend m/m.

This was largely due to increased Russian exports, competitive pricing in the Black Sea region, abundant global stocks, diminishing international demand, and the prospect of another massive Russian crop.

Maize prices also moderated by -4.8% m/m to close at USD189.1/MT. Meanwhile, Cocoa prices increased by +34.1% m/m due to a decline in the supply prospects on the back of poor harvests in West Africa.

The El Niño weather phenomenon has been causing drier weather in Ghana and Ivory Coast, which are the world’s two biggest producers of cocoa beans.

Turning to China, despite the challenges posed by the property sector, trade exports increased by 0.9% q/q to USD861.6bn in Q3 ’23 compared with USD853.6bn recorded in Q2 ’23.

Notably, China’s PMI increased marginally to 50.9 in February ’24 from 50.8 in January ’24. We expect a loosening or a hold stance in the near term as China continues to seek ways to bolster its economy amid the downturn in its property sector.

In Africa, total merchandise trade declined by -3.3% q/q to USD312.6bn in Q3 ’23, compared with USD323.3bn in Q2 ’23. It is worth noting that the region recorded a trade deficit of -USD23.1bn in Q3 ’23. It is worth highlighting that resource rich economies like South Africa recorded a trade surplus in Q3 ’23.

Meanwhile, non- resource rich economies like Kenya and Egypt recorded trade deficits in Q3 ’23. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development disclosed that, in 2019, intra-African trade accounted for less than 15% of total exports among African countries.

This suggests that there are potential benefits from increased regional trade. Overall, we expect the country’s external position to remain vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil price and weak domestic oil production.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Banking Sector

Access Holdings Plc Grants 23.81 Million Shares to Directors, Valued at N420 Million

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Access bank

Access Holdings Plc, a leading financial institution, has recently vested approximately 23.81 million shares valued at over N420 million to its directors.

The share vesting process, a common practice in corporate governance, allows employees, investors, or co-founders to gradually receive full ownership rights to shares or stock options over a specified period.

In this instance, Access Holdings Plc has chosen to reward its directors with shares, signifying confidence in their leadership and contributions to the company’s growth trajectory.

Among the beneficiaries of this share allocation are key figures within Access Bank, a subsidiary of Access Holdings Plc, as well as the acting Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO).

Recipients include Sunday Okwochi, the company secretary, who received 1.2 million shares at N17.95 per share, and Hadiza Ambursa, a director of Access Bank, who was allocated 1.72 million shares at the same price.

Other directors, such as Gregory Jobome, Chizoma Okoli, Iyabo Soji-Okusanya, Seyi Kumapayi, and Roosevelt Ogbonna, also received allocations ranging from 1.234 million to 12.345 million shares, each valued between N17.85 and N17.95 per share.

Bolaji Agbede, the acting Group CEO of Access Holdings, was granted 2.216 million shares at N17.95 per share, further solidifying his stake in the company’s success.

This move by Access Holdings Plc comes amidst a dynamic economic landscape, where organizations are strategically positioning themselves to navigate challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

By incentivizing its directors through share vesting, the company aims to foster a sense of ownership and accountability while motivating top talent to drive innovation and sustainable growth.

The share vesting scheme not only rewards directors for their past contributions but also incentivizes them to remain committed to the company’s long-term vision.

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Loans

Ghana’s $20 Billion Debt Restructuring Hangs in the Balance Amid LGBTQ Legal Challenge

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Ghana's Parliament

Ghana’s Supreme Court is set to commence hearings on a case that threatens the country’s $20 billion debt restructuring deal while simultaneously testing the World Bank’s commitment to LGBTQ rights support.

At the heart of the legal battle is a challenge to legislation that seeks to criminalize LGBTQ identities in Ghana.

The contentious law not only proposes severe penalties for individuals identifying as LGBTQ but also threatens punishment for those who fail to report individuals to the authorities, including family members, co-workers, and teachers.

If the Supreme Court upholds the legislation, Ghana risks not only perpetuating discrimination but also jeopardizing crucial financial support from international institutions, including the World Bank.

The implications extend beyond Ghana’s borders, potentially setting a precedent for how the World Bank engages with issues of LGBTQ rights and human rights more broadly across the globe.

The stakes are high for Ghana’s economy, which has been grappling with a heavy debt burden. The leaked memo from the finance ministry in April warned that endorsing the legislation could endanger approximately $3.8 billion of World Bank funding over the next five to six years.

Furthermore, it could derail a $3 billion bailout program from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and hamper efforts to restructure the country’s $20 billion of external liabilities.

The legal challenge comes amidst a broader debate about the balance between national sovereignty, international lending standards, and human rights. The World Bank, a significant source of development finance for Ghana, finds itself caught in a delicate position.

While it has historically emphasized non-discrimination and social standards in its lending practices, it also faces pressure to respect the sovereignty of the countries it engages with.

Ghana’s debt restructuring and economic recovery efforts hinge on continued support from international financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF.

However, the outcome of the Supreme Court case could complicate these efforts, potentially leading to a withdrawal of financial assistance and further economic instability.

The situation underscores the complexities of navigating the intersection of economic development, human rights, and national sovereignty.

As Ghana’s Supreme Court prepares to hear arguments on the LGBTQ legislation, the outcome of the case remains uncertain, leaving both advocates for LGBTQ rights and supporters of Ghana’s debt restructuring deal anxiously awaiting a decision that could shape the country’s future trajectory.

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Banking Sector

Central Bank of Nigeria Mandates Cybersecurity Levy on Transactions

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

In a bid to bolster cybersecurity measures within the financial sector, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued a directive mandating banks and financial institutions to implement a cybersecurity levy on transactions.

The circular, released on Monday, outlines the commencement of this levy within two weeks from the date of issuance.

According to the circular, all commercial, merchant, non-interest, and payment service banks, as well as other financial institutions, mobile money operators, and payment service providers, are instructed to enforce this cybersecurity levy.

The directive is a follow-up to previous communications dated June 25, 2018, and October 5, 2018, emphasizing compliance with the Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, Etc.) Act 2015.

The levy is to be applied at the point of electronic transfer origination and subsequently deducted by the financial institution.

This deducted amount will then be remitted to the designated Nigerian Cybersecurity Fund (NCF) account domiciled at the CBN. Customers will see a deduction reflected in their account statement with the narration, ‘Cybersecurity Levy’.

Exemptions from this levy include certain transactions such as loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, and intra-bank transfers among others.

The CBN aims to streamline and fortify cybersecurity efforts across the financial sector through the implementation of this levy.

This move by the CBN aligns with recent efforts to enhance regulatory oversight and mitigate risks within the financial ecosystem.

It follows closely after directives barring fintechs from onboarding new customers and warnings against engaging in cryptocurrency transactions.

Also, the Federal Government’s directive for the deduction of stamp duty charges on mortgaged-backed loans and bonds demonstrates a broader push for fiscal transparency and regulatory compliance.

The introduction of the cybersecurity levy underscores the CBN’s commitment to safeguarding digital transactions and ensuring the integrity of Nigeria’s financial infrastructure amidst evolving cyber threats.

As financial institutions gear up for implementation, the levy is poised to play a pivotal role in fortifying the nation’s cybersecurity resilience in an increasingly digitized landscape.

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