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Internet Subscriptions Hit 159 million in August ’23 – Coronation Economic Note

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According to the latest data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), internet subscriptions stood at 159 million in August ’23, reflecting a 4.4% y/y increase.

Meanwhile, on a m/m basis, internet subscriptions declined marginally by -0.3%. Internet subscriptions remain resilient despite visible changes in consumption patterns. Indeed, the importance of social connectivity remains high, even in times of economic challenges.

Social media platforms, messaging apps, and online communities continue to be crucial for maintaining connections, sharing information, and staying informed, driving sustained internet usage.

Furthermore, Nigeria has witnessed a surge in entrepreneurship and digital innovation. Startups
and small businesses often rely on the internet for their operations, from marketing to sales.

This entrepreneurial ecosystem contributes to the consistent demand for internet services.

In a separate report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which broke down subscription levels by states, Lagos state recorded the highest number of active internet subscribers in Q3 ’23 with 19.2 million, then Ogun state with 9.5 million and Kano with 8.7 million.

Meanwhile, Bayelsa recorded the lowest with 1,2 million. The demand for and accessibility of internet services vary among states.

The differences in internet subscriptions between Lagos and Bayelsa can be attributed to population density, infrastructure development, business ecosystems as well as educational and entertainment centers.

Returning to the NCC data, MTN accounted for the largest share (38.6%) of internet subscriptions
in August ’23.

Meanwhile, Globacom, Airtel, and 9mobile accounted for 27.9%, 27.3%, and 6.3% respectively. It is worth noting that Airtel, 9mobile and Globacom recorded marginal m/m increases in total internet subscriptions at +0.1%, +0.3%, and +0.1% respectively. Meanwhile, MTN recorded a -0.4% decline during this period.

Based on MTNN ‘s 9-month financial results (Jan-Sep ’23), service revenue increased by 21.7% y/y. The y/y uptick can be attributed to increases in both data revenue (15.3% y/y). Despite the commendable revenue generation, we saw a notable contraction in profit due to rising operating expenses.

The latest national accounts released by the NBS show that telecommunications grew by 7.7% y/y and accounted for 13.5% of total GDP in Q3 ’23. If Nigeria’s ICT sector maintains double-digit growth over five consecutive years, it could lead to substantial economic expansion.

Our in-house estimate suggests a GDP growth rate in the range of 1-2 percentage points per year. This
projection considers the sector’s direct contribution to GDP, as well as its indirect impact on other sectors through increased productivity, innovation, and connectivity.

Broadband penetration increased to 45.6% in August ’23 vs 44.4% recorded in the corresponding period of 2022. The FGN had set a broadband penetration target of 70% by 2025. This goal was outlined in the National Broadband Plan (NBP) 2020-2025. The current gap can be closed by 2025.

However, roadblocks need to be addressed. Such as delays and difficulties in obtaining the right of way for laying fiber optic cables which are slowing down broadband deployment.

In 2020, the Nigerian Governors’ Forum resolved that telecom operators should pay a RoW fee of N145 per linear meter of fiber. Notably, only Nasarawa, along with Kaduna, Ekiti, Katsina, Plateau, and Ekiti,
opted for zero charges.

Meanwhile, the FCT had disclosed a charge of N14.50 per linear meter RoW charges (a 90% reduction from the regular fee) in 2022.

Effectively mitigating RoW challenges in Nigeria demands a nuanced, strategic approach. Streamlining regulatory frameworks and establishing transparent fee structures are imperative to diminish unnecessary delays and financial uncertainties for infrastructure developers. Additionally, introducing digital platforms for RoW processes aligns with global best practices, enhancing administrative efficiency and minimizing bureaucratic hurdles.

Engaging stakeholders through sustained dialogue and community sensitization becomes paramount, fostering a collaborative environment conducive to infrastructure development. Public-private partnerships should be strategically leveraged, with a focus on incentivizing private sector involvement in broadband deployment.

The creation of standardized RoW agreements and dedicated task forces can institutionalize efficient decision-making processes, ensuring consistency and fair negotiations.

Regarding opportunities within ICT, digital transformation services feature on the list. Businesses are increasingly seeking innovative solutions such as cloud computing, cybersecurity, and data analytics to enhance efficiency and competitiveness.

Furthermore, telecommunications infrastructure development continues to offer avenues for expansion and upgrades, including the deployment of advanced technologies such as 5G. This addresses the escalating demand for data and connectivity in a rapidly digitizing society. Cybersecurity Services also remain important, the increasing reliance on digital platforms necessitates robust solutions to safeguard businesses from evolving cyber threats.

The FGN has shown a commitment to expanding digital infrastructure. Initiatives aimed at improving broadband penetration and increasing internet accessibility, especially in rural areas, contribute to the overall growth and resilience of internet subscriptions and by extension, the broader economy.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Telecommunications

Telecom Tax, Other Levies Back on the Table for $750m Loan

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In a bid to secure a $750 million loan from the World Bank, Nigeria is considering the reintroduction of previously suspended telecom taxes and other fiscal measures.

This potential move comes as part of the Stakeholder Engagement Plan for Nigeria – Accelerating Resource Mobilisation Reforms program between the country and the World Bank.

The program, aimed at strengthening the government’s financial position by enhancing its capacity to manage and mobilize domestic resources effectively, outlines plans to improve tax and customs compliance and safeguard oil revenues.

Among the proposed measures are the reintroduction of excises on telecom services and the EMT levy on electronic money transfers through the Nigerian Banking System.

President Bola Tinubu had previously ordered the suspension of the five percent excise duty on telecommunications and the Import Tax Adjustment levy on certain vehicles in July 2023.

However, negotiations between the government and the World Bank suggest that this suspension may be lifted to meet the targets of the new loan program.

The World Bank’s contribution of $750 million constitutes a significant portion of the program’s budget, with the government expected to contribute $1.17 billion through annual budgetary allocations.

The proposed tax reforms under the ARMOR program are expected to have far-reaching implications across various economic sectors.

Stakeholders that would be affected by these measures include telecom and banking service providers, manufacturers of goods such as alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, and sugar-sweetened beverages, as well as the general tax-paying public, importers, and international traders.

Key industry groups, such as the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria, are being engaged regarding the excise duties on telecom services.

The planned reintroduction of these taxes is part of a larger governmental initiative aimed at reforming tax and excise regimes, enhancing the administrative capabilities of tax and customs, and ensuring transparency in oil and gas revenue management from 2024 to 2028.

The program also emphasizes the importance of engaging vulnerable groups to mitigate any disproportionate impact of these changes.

Additionally, the program outlines specific allocations for technical assistance, including investments in better data sharing systems, risk-based audits, compliance processes, and capacity building for institutions such as the Federal Inland Revenue Service and the Nigeria Customs Service.

While the reintroduction of telecom taxes and other levies may face resistance from some stakeholders, the government sees them as essential steps toward achieving its fiscal targets and unlocking much-needed financing for development projects.

As negotiations with the World Bank continue, Nigeria must balance its revenue needs with the potential impact on businesses and consumers.

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Nigeria’s Mobile Subscriptions Drop by 5.4 Million in Q1 2024, NIN Enforcement Blamed

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Active mobile subscriptions dropped by 5.4 million in the first quarter of 2024, according to data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

The total active mobile subscriptions stood at 219 million, a 2.4% decrease from the previous quarter’s 224.4 million.

This decline has been directly attributed to the stringent enforcement of the National Identity Number (NIN)-Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) linkage policy by the NCC.

Since its inception, the policy has aimed to bolster national security measures and enhance accountability within the telecom sector by mandating the linkage of mobile phone numbers to individuals’ unique NINs.

The regulatory directive, which came into effect in December 2023, required telecom operators to deactivate SIMs not linked to their owners’ NINs by February 28, 2024. The process unfolded in three phases with subsequent deadlines set for March 29 and April 15.

However, due to various challenges and requests for extensions, the final phase was postponed to July 31.

During this period, over 40 million lines, encompassing both active and multiple lines registered to a single subscriber, were reportedly barred by telecom operators.

The majority of these lines were found to be inactive, suggesting a considerable impact on non-compliant subscribers.

The National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) disclosed that as of April 2024, a total of 105 million Nigerians had enrolled for the NIN, indicating a widespread response to the government’s initiative to bolster identity verification processes.

In April 2022, the telecom sector experienced a similar wave of disruption as operators commenced the initial phase of enforcing the SIM-NIN rule.

During that period, over 72.77 million active telecom lines were barred, signaling a pivotal moment in regulatory compliance efforts.

MTN Nigeria, the country’s largest telecom operator, revealed in its first-quarter 2024 financial report that it had deactivated 8.6 million lines due to non-compliance with the NIN mandate.

However, the company emphasized its efforts to minimize the net impact of barred subscribers through effective customer management strategies.

Karl Toriola, CEO of MTN Nigeria, underscored the resilience of the company’s customer value initiatives in mitigating subscriber churn and driving gross connections amid regulatory challenges.

Despite the substantial drop in active subscriptions, MTN Nigeria closed the quarter with a total of 77.7 million subscribers, showcasing the effectiveness of its retention strategies.

As Nigeria navigates the evolving telecom landscape amidst regulatory reforms, stakeholders anticipate further measures to enhance compliance and fortify the integrity of the country’s telecommunications ecosystem.

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MTN Nigeria to Convene Extraordinary General Meeting to Address Capital Loss

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MTN Nigeria, one of the country’s leading telecommunications giants, has announced plans to hold an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) with its shareholders to deliberate on strategies for managing the significant capital loss it incurred in 2023.

The decision was disclosed in a corporate notice filed with the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Tuesday and the EGM is scheduled to take place later this month in Lagos.

The primary agenda of the meeting will be to discuss and explore possible measures to mitigate the loss of capital suffered by the company during the financial year ended December 2023.

The telecom giant posted a net loss after tax of N137 billion, largely driven by a N740 billion foreign exchange loss.

Consequently, MTN Nigeria’s retained earnings and shareholders’ fund plummeted to negative N208 billion and N40.8 billion, respectively.

In a statement, Karl Toriola, the Chief Executive Officer of MTN Nigeria, acknowledged the daunting operating environment characterized by inflationary pressures, currency devaluation, and foreign exchange shortages.

Toriola explained that the adverse impact of these factors on the company’s financial performance necessitates a comprehensive reassessment of strategies to navigate the complexities ahead.

Toriola further expressed the company’s commitment to sustaining commercial momentum and accelerating service revenue growth, despite the challenging economic landscape.

The decision not to declare a final dividend for 2023 reflects MTN Nigeria’s prudent approach to prioritizing financial stability and long-term resilience amid ongoing uncertainties.

The upcoming EGM signifies a pivotal moment for the company and its shareholders to collaboratively chart a course towards recovery and sustainable growth.

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