Crude oil and condensate exports from Gulf producers recovered to 91 percent of their pre-war levels in September as Saudi Arabia sharply increased shipments and regional producers adapted to persistent disruption around key shipping routes.
Fresh shipping data showed crude and condensate flows recovering close to the levels recorded before the Middle East conflict, providing additional supply to a global oil market that has faced months of disruption.
Data from Vortexa showed crude and condensate exports recovered to 91 percent of the pre-war level of 16.3 million barrels per day.
When refined fuels and liquefied petroleum gas are included, shipments from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates averaged about 19.2 million barrels per day in September.
That represented more than 81 percent of the approximately 23.6 million barrels per day averaged during the year before the conflict began.
Separate Kpler data estimated total September oil exports from the region at about 18.6 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia was responsible for much of the recovery.
Saudi crude and condensate exports climbed by approximately 4.2 million barrels per day from August to reach 6.6 million barrels per day in September.
The increase was large enough to offset weaker shipments from some other Gulf producers and came despite attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure during the month.
Combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran consequently increased to approximately 14.7 million barrels per day in September from 10.8 million barrels per day in August.
The recovery has occurred even as Iranian exports have fallen to zero under a United States-led blockade and shipments from Kuwait and Qatar declined.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq increased exports sufficiently to offset those losses.
Regional producers have also changed how they move crude through increasingly dangerous shipping corridors.
Some tankers have travelled with tracking systems switched off to reduce their exposure as attacks on commercial vessels and energy infrastructure continue.
The improvement in crude supply, however, has not been matched by refined petroleum products.
Vortexa data showed exports of refined fuels, including liquefied petroleum gas, remained at only about 60 percent of their pre-war level of 7.3 million barrels per day.
The disparity helps explain why crude prices have eased while diesel and jet fuel markets remain under significant pressure.
Reduced Middle Eastern refinery output and product exports have contributed to shortages in international fuel markets even as more crude becomes available to refiners.
The changing supply picture has started to weigh on international crude prices.
Brent crude fell 83 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $99.49 per barrel at around 0650 GMT on Tuesday, while United States West Texas Intermediate declined $1, or 1.1 percent, to $88.43 per barrel.
The decline also followed an agreement by G7 countries to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves, adding another source of supply to the international market.
However, the recovery in Gulf exports remains vulnerable to renewed disruption.
Attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz have increased in recent days, while tensions involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces continue to threaten oil infrastructure and shipping.
The latest figures therefore point to a divided global energy market: crude supply from the Gulf is recovering rapidly, but the supply of refined products remains substantially below normal levels.
If Gulf crude exports remain near current levels, the additional barrels could continue to limit upward pressure on international crude prices.
But without a similar recovery in refinery operations and petroleum-product exports, consumers could continue facing elevated diesel, aviation fuel and other refined-product prices even if Brent crude remains around or below $100 per barrel.
