Major international oil companies have cautioned that Venezuela remains commercially and legally uninvestible despite renewed pressure from the White House to accelerate foreign capital inflows into the country’s oil sector following recent political developments in Caracas.
The warning followed a high-profile meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and senior executives from leading American and European energy firms, where Washington signalled urgency around mobilising as much as $100 billion in new investment to revive Venezuela’s oil industry and lift crude output sharply from current levels of about 900,000 barrels per day.
Executives present at the meeting acknowledged Venezuela’s vast oil reserves but stressed that fundamental risks remain unresolved.
Exxon Mobil chief executive Darren Woods said the country is currently “un-investible” from both a commercial and legal perspective, citing the absence of enforceable legal protections, uncertainty over contract sanctity, and the lack of long-term regulatory stability.
Venezuela has endured nearly a decade of U.S. sanctions, while years of corruption, underinvestment, and operational decay have severely damaged infrastructure and production capacity.
Oil executives noted that reversing these conditions would require the establishment of a stable government capable of guaranteeing security, restoring fiscal discipline, and rebuilding investor confidence—steps that could take years rather than months.
The Trump administration has indicated it is moving quickly. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is working on lifting some sanctions on Caracas to stabilise the economy and facilitate oil exports.
Analysts, however, argue that partial sanctions relief would be insufficient to unlock meaningful investment.
Engagement with state oil company PDVSA remains restricted, while oilfield service providers such as SLB and Halliburton would still face limitations in deploying equipment and personnel.
Carlos Bellorin, an analyst at consultancy Welligence, said broader sanctions removal could unlock “low-hanging” production gains by allowing capital to flow into reactivating shut-in wells and rehabilitating pipelines and export terminals.
Even so, he cautioned that these gains would be modest relative to Venezuela’s historical production levels.
Chevron, currently the only U.S. oil major operating in Venezuela under a special licence, said production could rise by about 50 percent within two years by upgrading existing assets.
Spain’s Repsol also indicated it could significantly expand output over the medium term. Collectively, however, these increases would likely amount to only a few hundred thousand barrels per day, far short of Washington’s ambitions.
Another major obstacle remains unpaid debts. Several international oil companies and service providers are still owed billions of dollars from past nationalisations and contract disputes.
ConocoPhillips alone is seeking roughly $12 billion linked to the 2007 expropriation of its assets. While Trump suggested companies could write off such claims, industry executives signalled reluctance to commit fresh capital without clear mechanisms for debt recovery.
Beyond near-term production, oil majors argue that unlocking Venezuela’s long-term potential would require sweeping legal reforms, including changes to mandatory state participation in joint ventures, reductions in royalty and tax rates, and a loosening of PDVSA’s monopoly over crude marketing.
Despite possessing the world’s largest proven oil reserves, much of Venezuela’s crude is heavy oil, which is more costly to extract and process.
In addition, significant portions of reserves are tied up in joint ventures with Chinese and Russian partners, further complicating investment decisions.
Oil executives stressed that verbal assurances from Washington are unlikely to substitute for durable legal and fiscal reforms.
“The investments we make span decades,” Woods said, underscoring the industry’s need for long-term certainty.
While political pressure from the White House may prompt limited engagement, industry leaders warned that without concrete structural change, Venezuela’s oil sector is unlikely to see a sustained revival.
