The World Bank has warned that Africa’s labour force is set to almost double by 2050, a development that will mount unprecedented pressure on governments to create millions of decent jobs or risk growing youth unrest.
According to the bank’s biannual assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa, more than 600 million people are expected to join the working-age population over the next 25 years, making it the largest and fastest demographic expansion in modern world history.
While the region’s economic growth is forecast to improve to 3.8 percent in 2025 from 3.5 percent last year, the report cautioned that the pace of job creation remains far below what is needed to absorb the growing youth population.
“The consequences of not solving these problems are hard to contemplate,” said Andrew Dabalen, Chief Economist for the Africa Region. “Certainly, they will be very disruptive, and we’re beginning to see the signs of it.”
Dabalen referenced recent protests in Madagascar, Kenya, and Nigeria as early warnings of a broader generational frustration with high unemployment, inequality, and poor governance.
He noted that Gen-Z movements are emerging across the continent as young people vent their anger at economic stagnation and entrenched political elites.
Youth Frustration and Economic Pressures
The World Bank found that only 24 percent of employment across Sub-Saharan Africa qualifies as wage-paying, meaning most new entrants are confined to low-income informal jobs with limited prospects for social mobility.
This structural weakness, the report said, has intensified the sense of economic exclusion among young people who feel trapped in poverty despite the region’s vast resource potential.
“We should be very, very concerned about that,” Dabalen warned. “It’s not obvious the status quo will remain.”
The bank emphasised that sustainable job creation will require a structural shift toward larger, more productive companies capable of driving industrial growth, increasing competitiveness, and reducing business costs.
It also urged governments to invest in workforce development, strengthen private sector participation, and embrace new technologies, including artificial intelligence, to enhance productivity.
Debt Challenges and Fiscal Constraints
The report identified rising debt distress as a major constraint to development, noting that 23 African countries are now either in or at high risk of debt distress — nearly half of the continent — up sharply from just eight countries in 2014.
Despite these challenges, the bank said the region has shown greater economic resilience than expected, citing declining inflation rates, currency stabilisation, and improved fiscal management among several governments.
It warned, however, that protest movements driven by weak job creation, rising living costs, and disputed tax measures could undermine fiscal consolidation efforts and complicate debt management if not addressed.
“These movements, fueled by economic hardship, can stall reforms, sap revenues, and delay development progress,” the report noted.
Policy Priorities for Inclusive Growth
To avert future instability, the World Bank recommended a comprehensive approach anchored on industrialisation, digital transformation, and policy reforms that attract private investment and unlock regional trade.
It highlighted tourism as one of the continent’s key growth enablers, noting that every job created in tourism supports another 1.5 jobs in related sectors, underscoring the sector’s potential for widespread employment.
Dabalen stressed that Africa’s youth are not seeking to destroy institutions but are demanding better governance, transparency, and opportunity.
“The Gen-Z demonstrators, for the most part, are not trying to tear down their countries,” he said. “There is a lot of demand for better governance from young people.”
Outlook
Africa’s demographic trajectory presents both a threat and an opportunity. If harnessed effectively through policy reforms, private investment, and human capital development, the continent’s young workforce could power decades of economic expansion.
However, failure to address the employment gap could deepen discontent, disrupt growth, and erode social cohesion, the World Bank warned.
As the global economy transitions toward digital innovation and green energy, the report concluded that Africa’s ability to adapt and industrialise inclusively will determine whether its demographic boom becomes a demographic dividend or a demographic crisis.
