Global oil traded largely flat on Wednesday as traders weighed the prospect of increased supply from OPEC+ producers against signs of a weaker US dollar and mixed economic indicators from the world’s largest oil consumer.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian crude oil, edged up by 5 cents to $67.16 per barrel at 9:45 a.m. in Nigeria, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained unchanged at $65.45 per barrel.
Industry sources said data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) late Tuesday showed US crude inventories rose by 680,000 barrels last week, counter to typical seasonal draws during the summer driving season.
The build in stockpiles added to investor caution as traders await official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday.
“Today’s oil price moves are being pushed by the interplay of potentially rising OPEC+ supply, confusing US inventory signals, uncertain geopolitical outlook, and macro-policy ambiguity,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
Four OPEC+ sources confirmed last week that the group plans to lift output by an additional 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month, mirroring the incremental hikes for May, June, and July. Analysts say the planned supply boost is already largely priced in, with investors now focusing on how quickly this crude will reach global markets.
“We are all talking about additional supply coming to the market, but the supply has not really hit the market,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS. “Probably because it’s being consumed domestically.”
Data from commodity analytics firm Kpler indicates that Saudi Arabia increased shipments in June by 450,000 bpd from May — its highest in over a year — yet overall OPEC+ exports have remained relatively stable or slightly lower since March. Staunovo expects this trend to persist over the summer as strong domestic demand and high temperatures boost regional energy consumption.
Supporting crude prices, the US dollar continued to weaken, touching a three-and-a-half-year low against major currencies earlier on Wednesday. A weaker dollar typically supports oil demand by making dollar-priced crude cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
Meanwhile, investors are watching for fresh macroeconomic signals from the US. Non-farm payrolls data due Thursday will likely influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates.
“Lower interest rates could boost economic activity and support oil demand growth in the second half of the year,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.
The oil market remains range-bound as traders assess the balance between incoming OPEC+ supply, shifting US economic indicators, and the dollar’s trajectory. Official EIA inventory figures are expected at 10:30 a.m. ET and could provide further clarity on near-term demand trends in the US.
