Nigeria’s gross external reserves declined by about $3.5 billion in the first half of 2025 to $37.37 billion as at June 26 from $40.87 billion recorded at the end of December 2024, according to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
CBN figures show that the reserves fell from $38.45 billion in May to $37.37 billion by late June following a consistent slide that began early in the month.
The reserves lost about $1.07 billion within the last three weeks of June alone, reflecting increased foreign exchange interventions and softening oil prices.
Last week’s data also indicates that gross reserves dropped by $293.87 million week-on-week, down 0.78 percent.
Coronation Research, in its latest note, warned that the moderate decline, combined with limited FX inflows, could keep the foreign exchange market sensitive to renewed demand-side pressures.
“The moderate decline in gross external reserves and the relatively modest FX inflow from the CBN suggest that the market may remain sensitive to demand side pressures,” Coronation analysts wrote.
Nigeria’s oil production and prices remain key drivers of FX inflows.
However, Brent crude fell sharply to below $68 per barrel, slipping from around $77 per barrel in the preceding week, after tensions between Israel and Iran eased.
The ceasefire announcement by U.S. President Trump ended a 12-day conflict that had briefly lifted Brent above $80 per barrel.
Despite the reserves drawdown, the naira showed relative stability in both official and parallel markets. The naira appreciated by 52 basis points week-on-week to close at ₦1,539.24/$ at the official window, while the parallel market rate improved to ₦1,570/$ from ₦1,595/$ the previous week.
Analysts at United Capital noted that inflows from non-bank corporates, exporters, and sustained portfolio investments have supported the naira’s resilience. They added that further currency stability will depend on the pace of reserve accretion and the CBN’s intervention strategy.
CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso reaffirmed the apex bank’s commitment to rebuilding reserves buffers through measures aimed at boosting export proceeds, encouraging remittances, and limiting unnecessary imports.
“Our foreign exchange reserves have risen to over $38 billion, giving us close to 10 months of import coverage. This provides the country with a stronger buffer to withstand external shocks,” Cardoso said during a recent engagement with Airtel Africa’s management team.
However, with updated data showing reserves trending below the $38 billion mark, analysts say the pace of fresh FX inflows and oil market stability will be critical in the second half of the year.
