Nigeria generated ₦70.1 trillion in oil export revenue between January 2024 and March 2025, according to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Despite persistent production challenges and systemic underinvestment, the country’s oil and gas sector delivered a strong earnings performance over the 15-month period, driven by favourable global crude prices and exchange rate movements.
The export figures underline the continued dominance of crude oil in Nigeria’s external trade, even as daily production levels remained below the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota, averaging around 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd).
Brent crude prices, which averaged $80 per barrel during the review period, played a critical role in boosting export values. The depreciation of the naira further elevated export receipts in domestic currency terms, helping to offset volume shortfalls.
Crude oil accounted for a significant share of quarterly export earnings throughout the period. In Q1 2024, crude exports totaled ₦15.49 trillion, representing 80.80 percent of total exports.
This declined slightly to ₦14.56 trillion in Q2 2024, constituting 74.98 percent of exports. Despite the quarter-on-quarter decrease, the Q2 performance marked a 190.86 percent increase over the ₦5.01 trillion recorded in Q2 2023.
In Q3 2024, crude oil exports stood at ₦13.41 trillion, making up 65.44 percent of total exports. This was followed by ₦13.78 trillion in Q4, representing a 2.81 percent increase from Q3 and a 33.68 percent rise compared to Q4 2023.
However, the trend reversed in Q1 2025, when crude export earnings declined to ₦12.96 trillion, down 16.3 percent from the same quarter in 2024.
While the cumulative export performance was strong, analysts caution that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil remains a structural risk.
The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) recently warned that excessive dependence on oil exposes the economy to external shocks in an increasingly volatile global energy market.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, continues to face output constraints due to crude theft, pipeline vandalism, infrastructure decay, and regulatory uncertainty.
Despite proven reserves of over 37 billion barrels of crude oil and 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, production has struggled to consistently exceed 1.5 million bpd, excluding condensates.
Although modest recovery has been recorded, particularly with reforms aimed at improving operational stability, the gains remain fragile. Ongoing efforts to revitalise the sector have yet to deliver the level of output and diversification required to reduce fiscal vulnerability.
The Tinubu administration has reiterated its commitment to repositioning the oil and gas industry as part of broader economic reforms. Recent developments, including growing domestic refining capacity led by the Dangote Refinery and increased modular refinery investments, are expected to reduce import dependency and enhance export earnings through refined petroleum products.
Still, experts emphasise that long-term sustainability requires policy consistency, investor confidence, and a stable regulatory framework. Without these, the gains seen in naira-denominated export earnings may prove unsustainable.
