Saudi Arabia has called for a continuation of accelerated oil supply hikes through the coming months, signaling a renewed divergence within the OPEC+ alliance over output strategy.
The move has put Riyadh at odds with other key producers, including Russia, Algeria and Oman ahead of the group’s next meeting scheduled for July 6.
Sources familiar with internal deliberations disclosed that Saudi Arabia is pushing for an additional 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in August, with a possible extension into September.
The kingdom, which has taken a dominant role within the coalition, sees no rationale for slowing down supply growth as global demand peaks during the northern hemisphere summer.
This comes after OPEC+ had already agreed to raise output by 411,000 bpd monthly from May through July.
However, the most recent policy meeting exposed underlying tensions as Russia and its allies advocated a pause to assess market reaction. The Saudi position ultimately prevailed but disagreements remain unresolved.
Saudi Arabia’s strategy marks a departure from years of defending crude prices through coordinated supply cuts. Riyadh is now prioritizing volume and export share, particularly following a prolonged period of subdued demand and excess capacity.
Analysts say this pivot reflects a broader intention to reassert influence over key import markets, especially in Asia.
Benchmark crude futures fell to $60 per barrel in April following an unexpected OPEC+ supply increase that exceeded scheduled targets. Prices are currently hovering near $65 per barrel, indicating sustained pressure on revenue for oil-dependent economies.
The kingdom has reportedly dismissed calls for restraint, citing seasonal demand peaks and progress toward reviving the 2.2 million bpd previously withheld under voluntary cuts. If the current pace of restoration continues, the additional supply could be fully reinstated by September, one year ahead of schedule.
While consumers may benefit from lower oil prices, the shift introduces financial risks for producers with higher breakeven thresholds. Russian government oil revenues declined to a 24-month low in May, reflecting the fiscal implications of persistent price declines.
OPEC+ now faces a critical policy inflection point. With internal divisions resurfacing and price volatility increasing, the July 6 meeting will determine whether the group adopts a unified approach or reverts to fragmented strategies.
Saudi Arabia’s position remains unchanged. The kingdom is focused on output expansion, market penetration, and maximizing short-term export volumes. Any reversal in that stance is unlikely unless price deterioration becomes unsustainable or demand projections weaken significantly.
The alliance’s ability to maintain cohesion will depend on whether leading members can reconcile revenue stability with longer-term strategic interests in a rapidly shifting global energy landscape.
