Nigeria’s smartphone market recorded a 7 percent decline in shipments during the first quarter of 2025, according to data from global research firm Canalys.
This was due to rising inflation, exchange rate volatility and weakening consumer purchasing power that forced households to cut back on non-essential spending, including mobile devices.
The contraction reverses the 63 percent growth seen in the final quarter of 2023, which was driven largely by the influx of affordable models and seasonal sales. However, mounting macroeconomic headwinds have drastically reshaped consumer priorities in recent months.
“I’ve been trying to replace my phone since last year,” said Boluwatife Akanbi, a Lagos-based resident. “I looked at Samsung A-series like the A30s, but the prices are now over N500,000. That’s far above what I can afford.”
The Samsung A32, which retailed at about N130,000 in 2021, has seen a price increase of 284.62 percent in three years, outpacing the national minimum wage, now pegged at N70,000 per month. This widening affordability gap reflects the pressure on consumers who now face tough choices between digital access and basic survival needs.
Nigeria’s food inflation, which peaked at over 40 percent in early 2024, eased to 21.26 percent in April 2025 following a rebasing of the consumer price index by the National Bureau of Statistics.
However, real household income remains under pressure, as headline inflation stood at 23.71 percent in the same month.
“The smartphone is no longer just a gadget—it’s a necessity,” said Adeolu Ogunbanjo, president of the National Association of Telecoms Subscribers (NATCOMS). “But when people can’t feed themselves, phones become a secondary priority.”
The broader smartphone market in Nigeria continues to reflect this shift. Demand has tilted towards entry-level devices, particularly from brands such as Transsion Holdings (makers of Tecno and Infinix), Xiaomi and OPPO. These brands have gained traction by offering installment-based financing schemes such as Easy Buy and PalmPay to cushion high upfront costs.
“Financing schemes have helped improve access,” said Manish Pravinkumar, senior consultant for Middle East and Africa at Canalys. “However, they come with growing concerns about consumer debt sustainability as income levels remain stagnant or declining.”
Phone dealers are also feeling the strain. “We import our phones, and any increase in the exchange rate impacts prices,” said Ifeanyi Akubue, president of the Phone and Allied Product Dealers Association of Nigeria (PAPDAN). “The forex unification policy and naira depreciation have raised our costs significantly.”
The naira has fallen sharply from N470/$ in June 2023 to N1,585.76/$ as of May 27, 2025. This has compounded the cost of importing smartphones and other electronics, making them increasingly unaffordable to the average Nigerian consumer.
The implications extend beyond individual purchasing decisions. With smartphones serving as the primary gateway to the internet for most Nigerians, the ongoing affordability crisis poses a serious threat to the country’s digital inclusion agenda. As of April 2025, mobile internet subscriptions stood at 141.47 million.
However, smartphone penetration remains uneven—59 percent in urban areas and just 26 percent in rural regions, according to the GSMA.
Karl Toriola, Chief Executive Officer of MTN Nigeria, has repeatedly flagged the high cost of smartphones as a major barrier to inclusive digital access. “Without affordable devices, many Nigerians will be excluded from the digital economy,” he warned during a recent telecoms industry event.
While Nigeria’s smartphone market struggles, other African markets are showing resilience. Canalys data shows Africa’s smartphone shipments rose 6 percent year-on-year in Q1 2025 with Egypt, Algeria and South Africa leading regional growth. Nigeria’s performance contrasts sharply with these gains due to its unique combination of inflation, currency pressure and reduced consumer confidence.
Despite near-term challenges, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Canalys projects a 3 percent growth for Africa’s smartphone market in 2025, supported by demographic factors such as a large youthful population and rising demand for connectivity.
Nigeria remains central to this forecast, though its recovery is contingent on broader economic stability and policy effectiveness.
In the interim, device manufacturers are expected to continue rolling out financing models, and investors will monitor Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators closely for signals of consumer recovery.
Until then, affordability remains the dominant challenge, with smartphones slipping further out of reach for many Nigerian households.
