A critical supply disruption is unfolding at one of the world’s most significant copper mines as Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.’s Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to grapple with extensive underground flooding triggered by seismic activity earlier this month.
According to a statement from Ivanhoe, operations at the Kakula underground section — which accounts for an estimated 70% of the complex’s current output — were temporarily suspended after seismic shocks led to widespread water ingress.
The company confirmed damage to key pumping infrastructure and electrical systems, raising concerns about prolonged production delays and potential output losses.
The incident has introduced material uncertainty into global copper supply projections for the year.
Analysts at Citigroup Inc. noted in a client briefing that the mine may remain offline until at least Q4 2025, projecting potential losses between 84,000 and 275,000 metric tons of copper output.
This could significantly dent the International Copper Study Group’s earlier global surplus forecast of 289,000 tons for the year.
Ivanhoe, which jointly owns the project with China’s Zijin Mining Group Co. and CITIC Metal, is currently deploying high-capacity pumps to accelerate water evacuation.
The company reported it is pumping 1,000 liters of water per second from the mine’s western shaft, with plans to triple that rate to stabilize underground levels.
However, no updates were provided regarding the eastern section of the mine, which Zijin previously flagged as structurally compromised.
Zijin and Ivanhoe each hold 39.6% of the Kamoa-Kakula operation, while the Congolese government maintains a 20% stake. Zijin also holds a more than 10% equity interest in Ivanhoe.
The discrepancy between Ivanhoe and Zijin over the extent of the damage has further complicated investor sentiment. While Zijin claimed a roof collapse had occurred, Ivanhoe publicly denied evidence of such structural failures, insisting that a full impact assessment is still underway.
Nonetheless, Ivanhoe has withdrawn its 2025 production guidance of 520,000–580,000 tons due to current operational uncertainties.
The Kamoa-Kakula complex has been a cornerstone of copper supply growth in recent years. The mine, which taps into one of the world’s richest copper seams, had been on track to become the third-largest copper supplier globally.
Its sustained output has been pivotal for meeting rising demand from clean energy, electric vehicle, and infrastructure sectors.
For now, surface concentrator facilities at the complex remain operational, processing stockpiled ore to maintain partial throughput.
The Kamoa underground and surface processing plants continue to run normally, according to Ivanhoe.
However, the interruption has cast a shadow over short-term copper market dynamics. Goldman Sachs, in a recent note, highlighted “high uncertainty on the timing of a restart and the level of remediation or mine redesign which may be needed.”
The development at Kamoa-Kakula follows a series of recent supply disruptions in the copper sector, including the forced closure of First Quantum Minerals Ltd.’s Panama operations and output cuts by Anglo American Plc. These incidents highlight growing structural fragility in global copper supply chains at a time when demand is accelerating due to global electrification and energy transition trends.
Ivanhoe has pledged to provide a comprehensive update in the coming days. Until then, the mining industry and global commodity markets remain on edge as one of copper’s most promising producers battles its most serious operational setback to date.
