Global crude oil prices remained largely stable on Tuesday as market participants assessed the likelihood of a production increase by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) ahead of a key ministerial meeting scheduled later this week.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, gained $0.11 or 0.2% to trade at $64.85 per barrel as of 07:40 a.m. in Nigeria while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by $0.06 or 0.1% to $61.59 per barrel.
U.S. markets were closed on Monday due to the Memorial Day holiday, leaving WTI without a settlement.
The anticipated decision from OPEC+ comes amid increasing speculation that the group will approve a moderate production boost for July.
According to market sources, the alliance may finalise an additional output increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), reflecting the group’s gradual strategy of easing earlier cuts while responding to improving global demand.
“Crude oil edged lower as the market contemplated the outlook for rising OPEC supply,” noted Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ, in a research note to clients on Tuesday.
While the broader OPEC+ ministerial meeting is expected to be held online on May 28, three sources within the group told Reuters that the eight member countries that committed to additional voluntary cuts are scheduled to meet separately on May 31, a day earlier than previously planned.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on Monday that discussions regarding a potential output increase were still ongoing and had not yet reached a conclusion.
The final decision will hinge on a consensus across the 23-member alliance, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia and other major producers.
Despite the prospect of higher output, oil prices remained supported by ongoing geopolitical concerns, including unresolved U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Monday that the country is prepared to navigate ongoing sanctions if talks with the U.S. fail to produce an agreement.
Persistent sanctions could limit additional Iranian supply, a factor that may lend support to prices in the near term.
In parallel developments, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) raised its official selling price for June shipments of its light crude to Asian buyers, setting it at $1.80 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai average. This marks an increase from the May premium of $1.65, reflecting tightening market fundamentals in the Asia-Pacific region.
On the demand front, sentiment was mildly supported by U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to delay potential tariff action on the European Union until July 9. The postponement has eased immediate concerns about transatlantic trade tensions that could have curtailed fuel demand growth in major consuming markets.
OPEC+ previously accelerated supply increases for May and June as part of a cautious effort to normalise output following prolonged production cuts that were implemented to stabilise the market in the aftermath of the COVID-19 demand collapse.
With Brent trading near $65 and WTI holding above $61, markets are closely watching this week’s deliberations for signals on future output policy. Analysts suggest that a production hike aligned with the 411,000 bpd estimate is already partially priced in, but any deviation from expectations could trigger renewed volatility.
As global inventories tighten and demand gradually recovers, the balance between supply discipline and market share retention remains central to OPEC+ decision-making. The group’s communication and cohesion in the coming days will be pivotal in determining short-term price direction and investor confidence.
