Global crude oil prices held steady on Thursday, supported by optimism over U.S.-China trade talks despite headwinds from rising OPEC+ supply and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 43 cents or 0.7 percent to $61.55 per barrel at 09:03 a.m. Nigerian time while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil advanced 49 cents or 0.8 percent to $58.56 per barrel.
The steady performance reflects investor anticipation ahead of scheduled trade talks between the world’s two largest economies, which collectively account for a significant portion of global oil demand.
Analysts say the market is seeking clarity on whether the talks will ease existing tariffs, which have weighed heavily on global trade flows and energy consumption forecasts.
“The market has almost stabilised slightly above $61 per barrel,” said Ole Hvalbye, oil analyst at SEB, noting that the upcoming diplomatic meeting and mild price movement are providing a buffer against downside risk.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with China’s top economic official in Switzerland on May 10 for a fresh round of discussions aimed at resolving trade tensions.
Despite the diplomatic optimism, downward pressure persists. OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are expected to increase oil output in the coming months.
The added supply could counterbalance any demand-side support generated by a breakthrough in trade negotiations.
Adding to market caution, Citi Research revised its three-month Brent price forecast downward to $55 per barrel, citing anticipated oversupply.
However, it maintained a full-year forecast of $60 per barrel, assuming a balanced demand recovery in the second half of the year.
The bank also flagged that a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could drive Brent prices down to $50 per barrel through increased Iranian exports, while failure to reach an agreement could push prices above $70 due to sustained geopolitical risk.
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady but highlighted ongoing risks tied to elevated inflation and a softening labor market.
The central bank’s cautious stance, combined with a stronger dollar, has weighed on broader commodity markets by increasing the cost of dollar-denominated assets for non-U.S. buyers.
In a research note, ING analysts said, “The Fed signalled that rates will likely remain on hold until the effects of tariffs become clearer. This boosted the U.S. dollar, which added to headwinds facing the broader commodity markets.”
While crude prices remain off their recent lows, market volatility is expected to persist amid mixed signals on trade policy, production strategy and global economic growth.
Traders will closely monitor developments from the U.S.-China meeting, OPEC+ output guidance and upcoming U.S. inventory reports for fresh direction in the days ahead.
