Crude oil prices posted modest gains on Monday following a 5 percent year-on-year rebound in China’s March import volumes.
The recovery was driven by increased in shipments from Iran and Russia that cushioned the market already grappling with global economic headwinds and intensifying trade tensions between the United States and China.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 6 cents to $64.82 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate gained 9 cents to trade at $61.59 as of 07:32 a.m. Nigerian time.
The slight uptick follows a sharp decline of nearly $10 per barrel for both benchmarks since the beginning of April as recession fears and tariff disputes weighed on the demand outlook.
According to Chinese customs data released Monday, crude imports climbed after two months of weakness. Analysts attributed the improvement to higher volumes from Iran and a recovery in Russian flows.
However, the bounce in imports did little to reverse bearish sentiment driven by weak global growth projections and oversupply concerns.
Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent forecast for the rest of 2025 to $63 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is now expected to average $59.
The bank projected further declines into 2026 with Brent seen at $58 and WTI at $55 citing reduced demand for petrochemical feedstocks and sluggish global consumption.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, also revised its Brent outlook for 2025 down to $68 from $76, citing a broad slowdown in economic activity.
The trade conflict escalated further last week after Beijing imposed a 125 percent tariff on select US imports in response to President Trump’s decision to increase duties on Chinese goods.
While Trump temporarily excluded certain electronics from higher tariffs, additional measures on semiconductors are expected soon.
Weak inflation data from China highlighted growing internal pressures with consumer prices falling for the second consecutive month and producer prices marking a 30th straight decline.
Moody’s Analytics noted that China’s economy appears unprepared for a prolonged trade confrontation.
In the United States, energy firms reduced oil and gas rigs by the largest amount since June 2023, according to Baker Hughes.
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to influence market sentiment. The United States has indicated potential moves to halt Iranian oil exports as part of a broader strategy to address Tehran’s nuclear program.
Talks held in Oman over the weekend were described as constructive with further meetings expected.
ING analysts said progress in diplomatic negotiations may ease some sanctions risk and provide short-term stability to oil markets.
However, persistent demand concerns and ample supply suggest that upside in prices may remain limited through the second half of 2025.
