Nigeria’s political landscape is shifting ahead of the 2027 presidential election as former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, formally exits the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
The defection, widely seen as a strategic realignment, signals mounting opposition against President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
El-Rufai, who has been at odds with the APC leadership since being denied a ministerial appointment, announced his decision on Monday, citing disillusionment with the party’s trajectory.
In a statement shared on X (formerly Twitter), he accused the APC of abandoning its founding principles, declaring that he would seek a new political platform to advance his vision for governance.
“Developments in the last two years confirm that those who currently control and run the APC do not desire to acknowledge, much less address, the party’s unhealthy situation. I have raised concerns in private and, more recently, in public regarding the party’s capricious trajectory.
Therefore, at this point in my political journey, I have come to the conclusion that I must seek another political platform to pursue the progressive values I cherish,” El-Rufai stated.
The move comes amid intensifying efforts by opposition figures to consolidate power ahead of the next election. El-Rufai’s defection follows a series of high-profile meetings with political heavyweights, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State governor Peter Obi, both of whom contested against Tinubu in the 2023 presidential election.
El-Rufai’s political maneuvers have reignited discussions about a possible grand opposition alliance. Just days before his defection, he met with former Interior Minister Rauf Aregbesola and Pastor Tunde Bakare in Lagos, fueling speculation of a broader realignment.
The former Kaduna governor has also reportedly initiated reconciliation talks between Atiku and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), in an effort to unify opposition forces.
Atiku, who has been vocal about the need for a strong opposition to challenge the APC’s dominance, hinted at his discussions with El-Rufai in a post on X, where he disclosed details of a meeting held during Ramadan.
“After tonight’s Iftar (breaking of fast), I received in audience former Governor of Kaduna State, @elrufai, former Governor of Adamawa, Jibrilla Bindow, and Musa Halilu, Dujima Adamawa. Our robust discussions were the dessert of the meal,” Atiku wrote.
Further fueling speculation, El-Rufai’s son, Bashir El-Rufai, responded to claims that the SDP cannot defeat the APC without Obi by simply stating, “He is coming.” The cryptic remark has intensified rumors that Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, may also be considering joining the alliance.
El-Rufai’s departure is the latest in what analysts predict could be a wave of defections from the APC. Party insiders suggest that several disenchanted chieftains, including former Attorney General Abubakar Malami and former APC National Chairman Abdullahi Adamu, may soon follow suit.
Many of these figures were key players in the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), one of the legacy parties that merged to form the APC in 2015.
Political analyst Kunle Okunade believes El-Rufai’s exit underscores growing dissatisfaction within the ruling party.
“El-Rufai’s defection is an indication that the APC is not well managed, and the situation may still lead to the party losing many stalwarts before the third quarter of this year,” Okunade told BusinessDay.
Another analyst, Tope Musowo, sees a potential implosion in the APC as the president’s handling of internal party affairs continues to alienate key figures.
“Many leaders are not happy with the way the party is being run now. The president is not carrying everyone along. Many are just silent and waiting for the time to leave. He would lose many leaders in the North, and it can affect his re-election bid,” Musowo warned.
Despite the growing uncertainty within the APC, the presidency has dismissed El-Rufai’s move as insignificant. Daniel Bwala, a spokesperson for the Tinubu administration, described the defection as a desperate attempt to unseat the president.
“Senior, @elrufai, I read the news today that you resigned from APC to join SDP. Well, I have nothing against you because you exercised your constitutional right. However, the MOTIVE is what we would interrogate in the coming days and remind Nigerians that associating with sore losers to unseat the incumbent is not an IDEOLOGY, neither is it PROGRESSIVISM; it is simply an inordinate AMBITION that is destined to fail,” Bwala wrote on X.
While the APC remains publicly confident, the opposition’s evolving coalition suggests that the 2027 election may not be a straightforward contest. With El-Rufai, Atiku, Kwankwaso, and potentially Obi in the mix, the race to unseat Tinubu is gaining traction.
As political realignments continue, all eyes are now on the next moves of Nigeria’s opposition leaders—and how the APC will respond to the growing cracks within its ranks.
