Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.84% in the fourth quarter (Q4) as the non-oil sector contributed 95.4 percent.
However, analysts have raised concerns over the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)’ failure to rebase the GDP figures despite earlier commitments to do so.
According to the latest NBS report, the oil sector contributed only 4.6% to GDP while the services sector expanded by 5.37% and contributed 57.38% to aggregate GDP.
Other key contributors included crop production (23.42%), trade (15.11%), telecommunications (14.4%) and real estate (5.88%).
The full-year 2024 GDP growth stood at 3.4%, surpassing projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which had forecast 3.2% growth for the year.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP expanded by 10.99% in Q4, signaling stronger production levels compared to the previous quarter.
Despite these positive indicators, economic analysts have criticized the NBS for failing to release rebased GDP figures, which they argue would provide a more accurate and updated reflection of Nigeria’s economic structure.
With rapid changes in key sectors such as technology and services, the continued reliance on an outdated GDP computation model raises concerns over data accuracy and economic planning.
“The economy has evolved significantly, especially with the rise of digital services, fintech, and informal trade,” one analyst noted. “Without rebasing, we may not be getting the full picture of Nigeria’s real GDP size and sectoral contributions.”
In nominal terms, the GDP stood at N78.374 trillion in Q4, reflecting 18.91% year-on-year nominal growth compared to N65.9 trillion in Q4 2023 and N71.131 trillion in Q3 2024.
However, the economic growth figures contrast sharply with rising inflation and deteriorating consumer purchasing power, which have forced many businesses to shut down or relocate.
The agriculture and industry sectors saw a decline in contribution, with agriculture’s share dropping to 25.59% and industry’s to 17.03%, lower than their respective contributions in Q4 2023.
With Nigeria’s non-oil economy continuing to expand, experts say the delayed GDP rebasing remains a critical issue, urging the NBS to update its methodology to reflect the true scale and dynamics of the Nigerian economy.
