Comercio Partners has projected Nigeria’s rebased inflation rate to range between 15% and 20% in its base-case scenario for 2025 with a mid-point estimate of 17.5%.
The investment bank’s forecast suggests a gradual decline in inflationary pressures amid evolving macroeconomic dynamics.
With no strong catalysts in sight, inflation is expected to ease to 20-25% while its most optimistic outlook places inflation between 10% and 15%, a reduction from the current 35%.
In its 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook, Comercio Partners revealed that the anticipated lower weight of the food basket reinforces expectations of a drop in inflation compared to the 2023-2025 spike.
The report identifies inflation trends, exchange rate stabilisation and fiscal expansion as key macroeconomic drivers for the year. Other critical factors include policy adjustments, expansion in local refining capacity, recalibrated gross domestic product (GDP) and improved external reserves.
According to Comercio Partners, the expansion of local refining capacity will reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on energy prices and lead to greater stability in production and transportation costs.
“The stabilisation, coupled with more predictable exchange rates, will likely lead to lower production and transportation costs, generating a positive ripple effect throughout the broader economy,” the report stated.
Nigeria sustained a positive balance of payments position last year with analysts expecting the trend to continue.
Comercio Partners sees further strengthening of the balance of payments as Nigeria transitions toward self-sufficiency in petroleum products.
The investment bank also cited the Diaspora Account for Non-Resident Nigerians, recently introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as a potential stabilizing factor for the foreign exchange market.
A stable policy environment and lower interest rates, Comercio Partners noted, would drive corporate investment, making funding more accessible for business expansion.
“This anticipated wave of corporate investment will mark a departure from constraints of 2024, a year in which surging interest rates severely limited business access to credit and stifled expansion plans,” the report stated.
Despite its optimistic outlook, Comercio Partners projects that the naira could close between N1,700 and N1,800 per dollar in the first half of 2025.
However, it emphasised that coordinated efforts by monetary and fiscal authorities could sustain the naira’s current appreciation trend and reinforce economic resilience.
