Nigeria’s upcoming GDP rebasing is set to reshape the nation’s economic narrative, with emerging sectors such as fintech, digital services, and tech startups poised to take center stage.
Projections suggest the services sector will dominate the rebased GDP and contribute between 55% and 60%, compared to its current share of 53%.
This adjustment will also reflect a decline in agriculture’s contribution to less than 25% and a steady oil sector contribution of 5% to 10%.
According to Meristem Securities’ 2025 Full Year Outlook titled Mining Gold in the Grit, the rebasing exercise will not only capture emerging sectors but also provide a more accurate representation of Nigeria’s evolving economy.
“A rebasing exercise in 2025 could bring emerging sectors like fintech, tech startups, and digital services into sharper focus while improving the capture of underreported areas such as arts and entertainment,” the report stated.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has indicated that the rebased GDP will include previously overlooked economic activities such as digital economy operations, modular refineries, and household employment.
This approach mirrors the 2014 rebasing, which increased Nigeria’s GDP by 90%, largely due to the inclusion of underrepresented sectors such as information and communication, healthcare, and real estate.
However, experts caution that these statistical changes may not translate into immediate economic improvement.
Analysts at Afrinvest Securities said “Policymakers must look beyond statistical effects to drive sustainable growth. Similarly, a potential decline in debt-to-GDP must not derail efforts to enhance fiscal discipline and sustainable debt growth.”
While the rebasing is expected to increase nominal GDP, real economic growth could remain constrained by challenges such as inflation, low productivity, and policy inconsistency.
Nigeria’s GDP, currently valued at $195 billion, has fallen behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.
“To get the economy back on track, the government must reduce its debt burden, restore its credit rating to investment grade, and tame inflation.
This would reduce borrowing costs and provide stimulus for investment, sustainable growth, productivity, and employment,” he said.
Adebajo also suggested selling joint venture oil assets to raise $30–50 billion, which could be used to stabilize the naira, improve foreign reserves, and reduce the debt burden.
As Nigeria prepares for this critical rebasing exercise, the emphasis on emerging sectors and digital advancements could reposition the country as a leading player in Africa’s economy.
