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IPPG Warns Against Forced Crude Sales to Dangote Refinery, Seeks NNPC Intervention

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The Independent Petroleum Producers Group (IPPG) has raised concerns over recent attempts to compel oil producers to supply crude to the Dangote Refinery and other local refineries.

In a strongly worded letter addressed to the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Gbenga Komolafe, IPPG Chairman Abdulrazak Isa urged authorities to allow producers to operate under the willing-buyer, willing-seller principle outlined in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021.

The letter, dated August 16, 2024, calls on the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to redirect its statutory crude oil allocation of 445,000 barrels per day to local refineries to address the ongoing crude supply shortage.

This shortage has contributed to a significant reduction in the availability of petroleum products across various regions of Nigeria, adding pressure on local markets.

The IPPG, a collective of Nigerian independent oil producers, expressed discontent with the current situation, in which its members are being asked to supply crude oil to domestic refineries, including the newly inaugurated Dangote Refinery.

The group believes that these demands go against the market-driven policies set by the PIA and could disrupt existing commercial agreements and business models within Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

“Historically, the NNPC has always had an intervention crude oil volume of 445,000 barrels per day meant to satisfy the nation’s domestic consumption,” Isa stated.

“This volume has always been used, under various swap mechanisms, to import refined products for domestic use. Since there is now domestic refining capacity to meet consumption, this dedicated volume should be reserved for all domestic refineries under a price hedge mechanism that can be facilitated by financial institutions like Afrexim Bank.”

Isa emphasized that while IPPG members understand the need to increase domestic refining capacity, they should not be forced into arrangements that effectively subsidize private businesses under the guise of national interest.

The group reiterated that any national crude production beyond the allocated volume should be treated strictly as export volumes and sold under market-driven conditions to willing buyers.

The excess refined products from local refineries should be exported to boost Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) earnings, Isa suggested.

The issue has taken on greater urgency following recent developments in Nigeria’s oil sector. In July, the NUPRC released a crude oil production forecast for the second half of 2024 and requested all oil-producing companies to submit their monthly crude oil supply quotations to licensed domestic refineries.

IPPG members, in particular, have received direct requests from the Dangote Refinery for crude supply nominations starting in October.

The IPPG criticized this approach, arguing that it conflicts with the willing-buyer, willing-seller principle of the PIA and undermines the autonomy of oil producers.

“While we fully support and commend the efforts of Nigerian entrepreneurs to enhance domestic refining capacity, no private sector business should be unduly pressured into arrangements that may effectively subsidize another within the oil and gas value chain,” Isa said.

“Refiners should negotiate and execute long-term crude oil Sales and Purchase Agreements with producers and their marketing agents. These agreements must follow industry best practices, with typical tenures ranging from one to five years.”

The IPPG also expressed concerns over the transparency of the current crude allocation process, noting that it appears to be based on refiners’ demands rather than actual local consumption needs.

This could lead to inefficiencies, Isa warned, adding that refineries with capacity beyond domestic demand should not exploit the Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligations to the detriment of producers and other stakeholders, including the government.

“Allocations determined solely by refiners’ demands may exceed what is needed for domestic consumption, creating potential inefficiencies and disadvantaging producers,” Isa wrote. “We urge transparency in how these allocations are made, and we call on the NUPRC to provide clear details on the allocation criteria and methodology.”

The IPPG’s position underscores the delicate balancing act between supporting local refining capacity and ensuring that the country’s oil and gas sector operates in a free-market environment that encourages investment, job creation, and economic growth.

The group stressed the need for continued dialogue between all stakeholders to find a solution that benefits both domestic refiners and oil producers while safeguarding Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and economic interests.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Surge as Hurricane Threat Looms Over U.S. Gulf Coast

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Oil jumped in Asian trading on Monday as a potential hurricane system approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, and as markets recovered from a selloff following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 72 cents, or 1.06%, to $68.39 a barrel while Brent crude oil was up 71 cents, or 1%, at $71.77 a barrel.

Prices had gained as much as $1 during early Asian trading before pulling back.

Analysts said the bounce was in part a reaction to a potential hurricane in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday.

The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for some 60% of U.S. refining capacity.

“Sentiment recovered somewhat from last week’s selloff,” said independent market analyst Tina Teng.

At the Friday close, Brent had dropped 10% on the week to the lowest level since December 2021, while WTI fell 8% to its lowest close since June 2023 on weak jobs data in the U.S.

A highly anticipated U.S. government jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased less than market watchers had expected in August, rising by 142,000, and the July figure was downwardly revised to an increase of 89,000, which was the smallest gain since an outright decline in December 2020.

A decline in the jobless rate points to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points this month rather than a half-point rate cut, analysts said.

Lower interest rates typically increase oil demand by spurring economic growth and making oil cheaper for holders of non-dollar currencies.

But weak demand continued to cap price gains.

The weakness in China is driven by economic slowdown and inventory destocking, Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at U.S. investment giant Carlyle Group, told the APPEC energy conference in Singapore on Monday.

Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020 on weak demand from the two largest economies.

Fuel oil exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast fell to the lowest level since January 2019 last month on weaker refining margins.

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Oil Prices Rebound on OPEC+ Output Delay Talks and U.S. Inventory Drop

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Oil prices made a modest recovery on Thursday on the expectations that OPEC+ may delay planned production increases and the drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 66 cents, or 0.9% to $73.36 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 64 cents or 0.9% to $69.84 per barrel.

The rebound in oil prices was a result of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report that revealed that the U.S. crude oil inventories had fallen by a surprising 7.431 million barrels last week, against analysts 1 million barrel decline projection.

The decline signals better than projected demand for the commodity in the United States of America and offers some relief for traders on global demand.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, attributed the rebound in crude oil prices to the API report.

He said, “There is a pause of breath and light reprieve for oil prices.”

Also, discussions within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are fueling speculation about a potential delay in planned output increases.

The group was initially expected to increase production by 180,000 a day in October 2024.

However, concerns over softening demand in China and potential developments in Libya’s oil production have prompted the group to reconsider its strategy.

Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that lingering uncertainties around global oil demand may continue to weigh on prices in the near term.

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Again NNPC Raises Petrol Price to N897/litre

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has once again increased the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from N855 per litre on Tuesday to N897 on Wednesday.

The increase was after Aliko Dangote, the Chairman of Dangote Refinery, announced the commencement of petrol production at its refinery.

The continuous increase in pump prices has raised concerns among Nigerians despite the initial excitement from the refinery announcement.

According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the 650,000 barrels per day refinery will supply 25 million litres of petrol to the Nigerian market daily this September.

This, NMDPRA said will increase to 30 million litres per day in October.

However, the promise of increased fuel supply has not yet eased the situation on the ground.

Tunde Ayeni, a commercial bus driver at an NNPC station in Ikoyi, said “I have been in the queue since 6 a.m. waiting for them to start selling, but we just realised that the pump price has been changed to N897. This is terrible, and yet they still haven’t started selling the product.”

The price hike comes as NNPC continues to struggle with sustaining regular fuel supply.

On Sunday, the company warned that its ability to maintain steady distribution across the country was under threat due to financial strain.

NNPC cited rising supply costs as the cause of its difficulties in keeping up with demand.

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