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Oil Prices Edge Higher on Hopes of U.S. Rate Cuts Amid Global Demand Concerns

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Oil prices saw a modest rise on Thursday as investors remained optimistic that potential U.S. interest rate cuts could stimulate economic activity and boost fuel consumption.

However, concerns over sluggish global demand, particularly from China, limited the gains.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, climbed 19 cents, or 0.24% to settle at $79.95 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also rose by 23 cents, or 0.3%, reaching $77.21 per barrel.

The slight rebound in oil prices came after a more than 1% decline on Wednesday, driven by an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories and easing fears of a wider Middle East conflict.

Despite the inventory build-up, which typically signals weaker demand, investor sentiment was buoyed by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates.

Recent U.S. consumer price data showed moderate inflation in July, with the annual increase slowing to below 3% for the first time in over three years.

This development has strengthened the belief that the Federal Reserve might cut rates as early as next month, which could spur economic growth and, in turn, increase demand for oil.

“The market experienced a correction during Asian trade as oil had been oversold on Wednesday,” said Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities. “Investors are now betting on the possibility of the Fed starting to cut rates next month, which has provided some support to oil prices.”

Geopolitical risks also continued to influence the market. Concerns remain over Iran’s potential response to the recent killing of a Hamas leader, with three senior Iranian officials indicating that only a ceasefire in Gaza could prevent direct retaliation against Israel.

This uncertainty has led to increased options trading activity, with market participants seeking protection against significant price spikes.

However, the optimism surrounding U.S. rate cuts was tempered by ongoing concerns about global demand. U.S. crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week ending August 9, marking the first increase since late June.

Also, China’s factory output growth slowed in July, and refinery output fell for the fourth consecutive month, underscoring the uneven recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.

Looking ahead, the market’s focus will shift to U.S. retail sales data for July, following mixed economic signals from China.

A disappointing figure could trigger a short-term bearish movement in oil prices, according to Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

Analysts remain divided on the future trajectory of oil prices. While Nomura’s Takashima anticipates that concerns over global demand will keep oil prices under pressure, with WTI potentially dropping toward the $72 mark, independent market analyst Tina Teng predicts that prices could rise in the third quarter.

Teng points to factors such as Middle East tensions, central bank rate cuts, and a weakening U.S. dollar as potential drivers pushing Brent prices toward $90 per barrel.

As the global energy market continues to navigate these complex dynamics, oil prices are expected to remain volatile, with investors closely monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments in the weeks ahead.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Surge as Hurricane Threat Looms Over U.S. Gulf Coast

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Oil jumped in Asian trading on Monday as a potential hurricane system approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, and as markets recovered from a selloff following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 72 cents, or 1.06%, to $68.39 a barrel while Brent crude oil was up 71 cents, or 1%, at $71.77 a barrel.

Prices had gained as much as $1 during early Asian trading before pulling back.

Analysts said the bounce was in part a reaction to a potential hurricane in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday.

The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for some 60% of U.S. refining capacity.

“Sentiment recovered somewhat from last week’s selloff,” said independent market analyst Tina Teng.

At the Friday close, Brent had dropped 10% on the week to the lowest level since December 2021, while WTI fell 8% to its lowest close since June 2023 on weak jobs data in the U.S.

A highly anticipated U.S. government jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased less than market watchers had expected in August, rising by 142,000, and the July figure was downwardly revised to an increase of 89,000, which was the smallest gain since an outright decline in December 2020.

A decline in the jobless rate points to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points this month rather than a half-point rate cut, analysts said.

Lower interest rates typically increase oil demand by spurring economic growth and making oil cheaper for holders of non-dollar currencies.

But weak demand continued to cap price gains.

The weakness in China is driven by economic slowdown and inventory destocking, Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at U.S. investment giant Carlyle Group, told the APPEC energy conference in Singapore on Monday.

Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020 on weak demand from the two largest economies.

Fuel oil exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast fell to the lowest level since January 2019 last month on weaker refining margins.

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Oil Prices Rebound on OPEC+ Output Delay Talks and U.S. Inventory Drop

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Crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices made a modest recovery on Thursday on the expectations that OPEC+ may delay planned production increases and the drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 66 cents, or 0.9% to $73.36 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 64 cents or 0.9% to $69.84 per barrel.

The rebound in oil prices was a result of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report that revealed that the U.S. crude oil inventories had fallen by a surprising 7.431 million barrels last week, against analysts 1 million barrel decline projection.

The decline signals better than projected demand for the commodity in the United States of America and offers some relief for traders on global demand.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, attributed the rebound in crude oil prices to the API report.

He said, “There is a pause of breath and light reprieve for oil prices.”

Also, discussions within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are fueling speculation about a potential delay in planned output increases.

The group was initially expected to increase production by 180,000 a day in October 2024.

However, concerns over softening demand in China and potential developments in Libya’s oil production have prompted the group to reconsider its strategy.

Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that lingering uncertainties around global oil demand may continue to weigh on prices in the near term.

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Again NNPC Raises Petrol Price to N897/litre

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Petrol - Investors King

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has once again increased the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from N855 per litre on Tuesday to N897 on Wednesday.

The increase was after Aliko Dangote, the Chairman of Dangote Refinery, announced the commencement of petrol production at its refinery.

The continuous increase in pump prices has raised concerns among Nigerians despite the initial excitement from the refinery announcement.

According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the 650,000 barrels per day refinery will supply 25 million litres of petrol to the Nigerian market daily this September.

This, NMDPRA said will increase to 30 million litres per day in October.

However, the promise of increased fuel supply has not yet eased the situation on the ground.

Tunde Ayeni, a commercial bus driver at an NNPC station in Ikoyi, said “I have been in the queue since 6 a.m. waiting for them to start selling, but we just realised that the pump price has been changed to N897. This is terrible, and yet they still haven’t started selling the product.”

The price hike comes as NNPC continues to struggle with sustaining regular fuel supply.

On Sunday, the company warned that its ability to maintain steady distribution across the country was under threat due to financial strain.

NNPC cited rising supply costs as the cause of its difficulties in keeping up with demand.

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