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Saudi Economy Contracts for Fourth Quarter; Oil Sector Decline Continues

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Saudi Arabia’s economy has experienced its fourth consecutive quarterly contraction due to continued declines in the oil sector.

According to preliminary data released by the General Authority for Statistics on Wednesday, the kingdom’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.4% on an annual basis during the April-June period.

This contraction, while slightly better than the previous quarter’s 1.7% decline, underscores the persistent challenges facing the world’s top oil exporter.

The oil sector, which remains a crucial component of Saudi Arabia’s economic framework, contracted by a significant 8.5%.

This decline marks a continuation of the negative trend driven by ongoing OPEC+ production cuts aimed at stabilizing global oil prices.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy demonstrated resilience, growing by 4.4% during the same period, an improvement from the previous quarter’s 3.4% growth.

This robust performance in the non-oil sector aligns with the government’s long-term strategy to diversify the economy and reduce its dependence on oil revenue.

The Vision 2030 plan, spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, emphasizes the expansion of the non-oil economy to generate employment opportunities for the Saudi population.

However, the overall economic growth remains vital to the success of this ambitious plan, which requires substantial investments.

Economists predict that the overall economic expansion is likely to accelerate as the impact of oil production cuts diminishes.

On a quarterly basis, Saudi Arabia’s economic output remained steady at 1.4% during the second quarter.

Carla Slim, an economist with Standard Chartered Plc, expressed optimism regarding the future. “We expect this to be the last quarter of deeply negative hydrocarbon sector growth,” Slim said before the data release, noting that the base effects are starting to dissipate.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Saudi Arabia, have been limiting oil supplies for almost two years in an effort to support prices.

Despite these efforts, Brent crude has averaged around $83.5 per barrel this year, which is below the $96 per barrel price that Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Bloomberg Economics estimates that when domestic spending by the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund is considered, the break-even price rises to $109 per barrel.

The IMF recently revised its estimate for Saudi GDP growth this year, lowering it to 1.7% from the 2.6% forecasted in April.

This adjustment reflects the ongoing difficulties in the oil sector and the broader economic challenges facing the kingdom.

Ziad Daoud, chief emerging-markets economist at Bloomberg Economics, highlighted the interconnectedness of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sectors and oil prices.

“Despite their label, Saudi non-oil sectors depend on oil prices,” Daoud explained. “With high oil prices, authorities hire more people, raising government services, a non-oil activity.”

As Saudi Arabia continues to navigate the complexities of a global oil market and strives to achieve its Vision 2030 objectives, the country’s economic landscape remains in a delicate balance.

The resilience of the non-oil sector provides a glimmer of hope, but the road to sustained growth and diversification remains challenging.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Economy

FIRS VAT Revenue Surges to N1.56 Trillion in Q2 2024 Amid Economic Struggles

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Value added tax - Investors King

The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) generated N1.56 trillion in Value Added Tax (VAT) in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

This represents an increase of 9.11% compared to the N1.43 trillion reported in the first quarter of 2024.

A breakdown of the report showed that local VAT payments accounted for N792.58 billion of the total amount generated, while foreign VAT payments stood at N395.74 billion, and import VAT contributed N372.95 billion.

A quarterly analysis of the report revealed that human health and social work activities recorded the highest growth rate with 98.44%. This was followed by agriculture, forestry, and fishing with 70.26%, and water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities with 59.75%.

On the other hand, activities of households as employers and undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use had the lowest growth rate with –46.84%, followed by real estate activities with –42.59%.

Sectoral analysis showed that the manufacturing sector contributed the most at 11.78%. Information and communication and mining and quarrying contributed 9.02% and 8.79%, respectively.

Nevertheless, activities of households as employers and undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use recorded the least share with 0.00%, followed by activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies with 0.01%, and water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities and real estate services with 0.04% each.

On a year-on-year basis, VAT collections grew by 99.82% from Q2 2023 despite ongoing economic challenges.

Nigeria’s inflation rate remains well above 30 percent, while new job creation is almost nonexistent.

Other key economic factors, such as investor sentiment, the purchasing managers’ index, and consumer spending, remain weak amid intermittent protests by citizens demanding improvements in quality of life.

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Economy

Nigeria Sees 9.11% Increase in VAT Revenue, Generating N1.56 Trillion in Q2 2024

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The federal government in the second quarter of 2024 generated a total of N1.56 trillion from Value Added Tax. This is a 9.11 percent increase from the N1.43 trillion in Q1 2024.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics report, local payments recorded were N792.58 billion, foreign VAT payments were N395.74 billion, while import VAT contributed N372.95 billion in Q2 2024.

“On a quarter-on-quarter basis, human health and social work activities recorded the highest growth rate with 98.44%, followed by agriculture, forestry and fishing with 70.26%, and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities with 59.75%,” NBS reported.

“On the other hand, activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services producing activities of households for own use had the lowest growth rate with 46.84%, followed by Real estate activities with 42.59%.

“In terms of sectoral contributions, the top three largest shares in Q2 2024 were
manufacturing with 11.78%; information and communication with 9.02%; and Mining and quarrying with 8.79%.

“Nevertheless, activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use recorded the least share with 0.00%, followed by activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies with 0.01%; and Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities with and real estate services 0.04% each.

“However, on a year-on-year basis, VAT collections in Q2 2024 increased by 99.82% from Q2 2023.”

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Economy

Finance Minister Denies VAT Hike, Confirms Rate Remains at 7.5%

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Value added tax - Investors King

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, on Monday, debunked reports doing the rounds that the rate for Value-Added Tax (VAT) has been upwardly adjusted to 10% from 7.5%.

The Minister, in a statement signed by him, affirmed that VAT rate as contained in relevant tax laws and chargeable on goods and services remains 7.5%.

“The current VAT rate is 7.5% and this is what government is charging on a spectrum of goods and services to which the tax is applicable. Therefore, neither the Federal Government nor any of its agencies will act contrary to what our laws stipulate.

“The tax system stands on a tripod, namely tax policy, tax laws and tax administration. All the three must combine well to give us a sound system that gives vitality to the fiscal position of government.

“Our focus as a government is to use fiscal policy in a manner that promotes and enhances strong and sustainable economic growth, reduces poverty as well as makes businesses to flourish.

“The imputation in some media reports on the issue of VAT and the opinion articles that have sprouted from them seem to wrongly convey the impression that government is out to make life difficult for Nigerians. That is not correct. If anything, the Federal Government has, through its policies, demonstrated that it is committed to creating a congenial environment for businesses to thrive.

“In fact, it is on record that the Federal Government, as part of efforts to bring relief to Nigerians and businesses, recently ordered the stoppage of import duties, tariffs and taxes on rice, wheat, beans and other food items.

“For emphasis, as of today, VAT remains 7.5% and that is what will be charged on all the goods and services that are VAT-able,” Edun said

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