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Euro Drops Amid Projections of Left-Wing Win in French Elections

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Euro

The euro experienced a significant decline in early trading on Monday following initial projections indicating a left-wing coalition was poised to win the French legislative elections.

The currency fell as much as 0.4% amid growing concerns about France’s financial future under a government led by the New Popular Front (NPF).

In a surprising turn of events, the NPF emerged as the likely front-runner, contrary to earlier expectations that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally would secure the most seats.

Instead, the National Rally is now projected to come in third, following President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.

French government bond futures also underperformed compared to their German counterparts, reflecting market anxiety over the potential shift in France’s economic policy.

One of the NPF bloc’s leaders, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has vowed not to negotiate with other parties to form a government and to stand firm on the coalition’s agenda, which includes substantial increases in public spending. Such measures are expected to create friction with the European Union.

Krishna Guha, a strategist at Evercore ISI, noted the market’s mixed reaction in a client note.

“The show of support for the left/far-left and calls by far-left leader Mélenchon to enact the full hard-left NPF agenda will unsettle some investors,” he wrote.

“But we view the outcome as broadly market-friendly, with National Rally-related risks disappearing for now and the left/far-left NPF set to fall far short of a majority with essentially no prospect of being able to enact its agreed alliance agenda.”

Asian markets reacted to the news with a downturn. Shares in the region retreated, and South Korea’s three-year bond futures reached their highest levels in nearly two years.

In addition, Samsung Electronics Co. workers are expected to initiate a major labor action, the most significant in the company’s history.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China announced it would conduct temporary bond repurchase operations as necessary to maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system. This move is intended to ensure stability amid the broader economic uncertainty.

Traders are also keeping a close eye on upcoming events in the United States. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and new inflation data later this week are anticipated to influence market sentiment further.

Following a soft jobs report, there is increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve might ease policy as early as September.

The recent nonfarm payrolls data indicated a slowdown in US hiring and wage growth, coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate to its highest since late 2021.

This has bolstered expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, adding another layer of complexity to the global economic outlook.

Back in the US, President Joe Biden is facing renewed challenges within his own party as he gears up for a reelection campaign. Despite achieving his best showing in recent polls, Biden continues to navigate a turbulent political landscape.

As the week progresses, market participants will be closely monitoring rate decisions from central banks in New Zealand and South Korea, as well as earnings reports from major US banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co.

These developments, coupled with Powell’s testimony and subsequent remarks from Fed officials, are expected to provide critical insights into the future direction of economic policy.

In the commodities market, oil prices ticked up ahead of reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency, which are expected to shed light on global crude balances.

Also, traders are tracking the path of Tropical Storm Beryl as it approaches Texas, which could impact oil supply and prices.

Gold, on the other hand, eased off the six-week high it reached last week, reflecting the fluctuating market dynamics.

As the political landscape in France and economic indicators globally continue to evolve, investors remain vigilant, adjusting their strategies to navigate the uncertainties ahead.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Forex

BDC Operators Blame Forex Shortage for Continued Naira Depreciation

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Bureau Of Engraving And Printing Prints New Anti-Counterfeit 100 Dollar Bills

Bureau De Change (BDC) operators in Nigeria have said that the value of Naira has continued to depreciate in the parallel market because of the scarcity of forex in the sector as major sources become drastically reduced.

This was disclosed by the Chairman of the Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe.

Gwadabe said sources of forex to that segment of the forex market have been severely impacted by the recent policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

He averred that members of the Association no longer get as much forex from relevant sources such as exports and external remittances and now rely on irregular intervention from the apex bank.

Blaming the International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), Gwadabe said the liberalisation of the market has prevented supply inflow which is being reduced and has made it difficult for BDCs.

According to him, IMT0s have ambushed the international remittance payment as most remittance payment now go their direction.

He added that non-oil exports, which is another source of FX for BDCs have also been reduced and the CBN intervention is not regular.

In the past, he noted that BDCs used to do up to $40k weekly but now, it is not more than $20k.

Gwadabe declared that the Naira will continue to depreciate in the parallel market except there is regular intervention by the CBN.

Describing the BDCs as the language of the invisible players in the retail end of the market, he stated that any sentiment of scarcity by buyers as well as sellers would affect the value of the Naira.

Recall that the Naira fell to N1,700/$ in the parallel market in September, its lowest in seven months but recovered marginally on the 2nd of October. However, the official market section saw a wide depreciation of up to 8%.

The CBN in the past one year has sought to regulate the IMTOs and enable them to play a more prominent role in attracting foreign exchange into official channels from international sources.

In 2023, Nigeria received around $19.5 billion- around 35% of total remittances to Africa according to the World Bank.

However, Taiwo Oyedele, the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on fiscal policy and tax reforms stated that only about 10% of the nearly $20 billion remittance entered the official forex exchange market as the parallel market swallowed up almost 90% of remittance inflows.

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Naira Strengthens Against Dollar at Official, Black Market in Final Session

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The Naira continued to strong-arm the US Dollar as it made a 1.7 percent gain in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, October 4 as the local currency gained a value of N28.05 to close the closing session at N1,631.21/$1 at the official window.

According to data obtained from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, compared to N1,659.26/$1 published in the preceding session on Thursday.

Turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $239.36 million indicating that the session’s turnover slid by 46.9 percent, indicating that there was a decrease of $211.03 million compared to $450.39 million published the previous day.

Equally, the domestic currency also witnessed gains against the British currency and the Euro in the week’s final session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made an appreciation of N24.21 to wrap the session at N2,175.44/£1 from N2,199.65/£1 that it sold at the previous session.

Also, against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,830.11/€1 versus N1,830.89/€1, indicating a 78 Kobo appreciation.

In the black market, the Naira also gained on the American currency by N5.23 to close at N1,676.56 per Dollar from N1,681.79.

It also made the same movement against the British Pound as it rose by N17.10 to N2,153.83 against N2,170.93 and trading against the Euro, the local currency added N6.93 to N1,852.10 versus N1,859.03.

It equally recorded a positive end result against the Canadian Dollar as it gained N10.52 to end the last session at N1,202.18 from Wednesday’s N1,212.72.

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Naira

Naira Gains on Dollar at Official Market on Improved Supply, Dips at Black Market

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, October 3, as the local currency sold for N1,659.26/$1.

The domestic currency recorded a 0.6 percent or N9.89 again against the greenback compared to the N1,669.15/$1 it was valued at the previous session on Wednesday.

This occurred as turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $450.39 million indicating that the session’s turnover surged by 155.3 percent, indicating that there was an increase of $273.94 million compared to $176.45 million that was published the day before.

This development indicates that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may have made fresh interventions in the market after it only sold to Bureau de Change (BDC) operators in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the domestic currency also witnessed losses against the British Pound Sterling and the Euro in the week’s penultimate session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made a loss of N56.00 to wrap the session at N2,199.65/£1 from N2,143.65/£1 that it sold at the previous session and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,830.89/€1 versus N1,789.71/€1, indicating an N41.18 depreciation.

In the black market, the Naira plunged by N25.75 to close at N1,681.79 per Dollar from N1,656.04 and extended this outcome against the British Pound as it fell by N12.70 to N2,170.93 against N2,158.23.

Trading against the Euro, the local currency dropped N14.80 to N1,859.03 versus N1,844.23

However, it was a positive outcome against the Canadian Dollar as it gained N7.28 to end the penultimate session at N1,212.72 from Wednesday’s N1,220.00.

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