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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Surge to Two-Month Highs Amid Summer Demand and Hurricane Threats

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Crude oil

Oil prices surged to their highest levels in two months on Tuesday, driven by a combination of rising summer demand and potential supply disruptions due to Hurricane Beryl.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, climbed 70 cents, or 0.81% to $87.30 a barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 68 cents, or 0.82%, to $84.06 a barrel, its highest since April 26.

Both benchmarks had already gained approximately 2% in the previous session, signaling a robust upward trend.

The primary catalyst for this surge is the anticipated rise in U.S. gasoline demand as the summer travel season intensifies, particularly with the Independence Day holiday this week.

The American Automobile Association (AAA) forecasts a 5.2% increase in travel during the holiday period compared to 2023, with car travel expected to rise by 4.8%.

In addition to the seasonal demand boost, oil prices are being supported by a rising geopolitical risk premium associated with Middle East tensions.

This, coupled with signs of subsiding inflation in the United States, has rekindled hopes of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Recent U.S. data has bolstered the market view that the Federal Reserve might proceed with two quarter-point interest rate cuts later this year.

Further compounding the supply concerns is Hurricane Beryl, which struck the Caribbean as a Category 4 storm on Monday.

The hurricane’s trajectory towards Mexico raises fears of disruptions to U.S. refining and offshore production.

“A dangerous hurricane in the Caribbean Sea is expected to hit Mexico, intensifying concerns regarding the supply side of the equation,” said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM.

Market analysts are closely monitoring the situation, particularly as lower crude exports from OPEC and Russia coincide with the peak summer refinery runs, contributing to a tighter-than-expected market.

Claudio Galimberti of Rystad Energy noted, “Lower crude exports from OPEC and Russia, just as refinery runs ramp up for the summer peak, are contributing to a tighter market and prices are reacting accordingly.”

Despite these bullish factors, some caution remains due to signs of lower-than-expected demand growth. Data indicates that first-half crude imports to Asia, the world’s largest oil-consuming region, were lower than in the same period last year.

However, the prevailing high geopolitical risk premium continues to lend support to oil prices.

As markets navigate these dynamics, industry stakeholders are advised to stay vigilant. The interplay of seasonal demand, geopolitical tensions, and natural disasters underscores the volatile nature of the oil market.

The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the current price rally is sustainable or if further adjustments will be necessary.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Namibia’s Oil Boom Turns Nation into High-End Business Travel Hub

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Total Exploration - Investors King

Namibia, known for its stunning landscapes like the Skeleton Coast and the Namib Desert, is fast becoming more than just a tourist hotspot.

With recent monumental oil discoveries by TotalEnergies SE and Shell Plc totaling an estimated 11 billion barrels, the country is now on track to transform into a high-end business travel hub.

The allure of Namibia’s burgeoning oil industry has sparked a rush of corporate travelers and oil executives, reshaping the travel landscape in the region.

According to Rodger Foster, CEO of SA Airlink Pty Ltd, the country’s newfound status as an oil producer has catalyzed a significant increase in high-end business travel.

“Namibia has historically been a leisure destination, but the discovery and commercialization of oil and gas, along with its green hydrogen potential, have positioned it as a magnet for business travelers,” Foster remarked in a recent interview with Bloomberg TV.

SA Airlink, responding to the growing demand, has expanded its flight services to Namibia, increasing routes to cities like Walvis Bay and the capital, Windhoek.

The airline now operates 63 return trips weekly to accommodate the influx of business travelers and industry professionals.

“This shift towards business travel, particularly in sectors like oil and gas, mirrors similar developments seen in neighboring countries such as Mozambique,” Foster added, highlighting the broader economic impact of Namibia’s oil boom on regional travel patterns.

Namibia’s strategic location and stable political environment further enhance its appeal as a business destination.

The government’s proactive measures to attract foreign investment in green hydrogen production also contribute to its emerging role in global business travel.

“We are witnessing a transformative moment for Namibia,” said Minister of Mines and Energy, Emma Theofelus, during a recent conference. “The development of our oil resources is not just about economic growth but also positioning Namibia as a hub for sustainable energy solutions.”

As Namibia navigates this new chapter, stakeholders are optimistic about the country’s potential to diversify its economy and attract further investment in sectors beyond oil and gas.

The growth in business travel underscores Namibia’s evolving role in the global economic landscape, with opportunities emerging in hospitality, infrastructure development, and sustainable energy initiatives.

With the momentum of its oil discoveries propelling it forward, Namibia looks set to carve out a niche as a premier destination for high-end business travelers seeking both economic opportunities and the country’s renowned natural beauty.

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Emergency Declared on Nigeria’s Oil Output by NNPC CEO Mele Kyari

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) declared a state of emergency on the nation’s crude oil output.

The announcement was made by the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, Mele Kyari, during the ongoing 2024 Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy Week in Abuja on Tuesday.

Kyari’s declaration shows the urgency and severity of the issues plaguing Nigeria’s oil industry.

“We have decided to stop the debate. We have declared war on the challenges affecting our crude oil production. War means war,” Kyari stated emphatically.

“We have the right tools. We know what to fight. We know what we have to do at the level of assets. We have engaged our partners. And we will work together to improve the situation.”

A comprehensive analysis of the country’s oil assets revealed that Nigeria has the potential to produce two million barrels of crude oil per day without the need for new rigs.

However, significant barriers, primarily procedural delays, have hindered achieving this target.

Kyari stressed that the state of emergency would expedite the removal of these obstacles, particularly delays in procurement processes, which have stymied efficient production.

As part of the immediate measures, Kyari announced that NNPC Ltd plans to replace all outdated crude oil pipelines, some of which were built over four decades ago.

This modernization effort is crucial for boosting and sustaining production levels.

Also, a rig-sharing program with NNPC’s partners will be introduced to ensure that production rigs remain operational in the country for an extended period, aligning with global best practices.

Kyari called for industry-wide collaboration to reduce production costs and achieve targeted output levels.

He also highlighted the company’s commitment to investing in critical midstream gas infrastructure, including the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) and the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipelines.

These projects aim to enhance domestic gas production and supply, supporting power generation, industrial development, and economic prosperity in Nigeria.

In a related address, Haitham Al Ghais, the Secretary-General of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), highlighted the anticipated rise in global energy demand by 2045.

Al Ghais noted that the world economy is expected to double in size, driving a 23% increase in energy demand.

He said oil and gas will continue to dominate the global energy mix, with oil alone projected to meet nearly 30% of the demand by 2045.

To meet the growing energy consumption, Al Ghais stressed the necessity for significant investments in the oil sector.

“Cumulative oil-related investment requirements from now until 2045 will amount to approximately $14 trillion or around $610 billion on average per year,” he said.

Securing this funding is essential to maintaining a stable supply and preventing market volatility.

Al Ghais also called for a balanced approach to energy policies, especially for developing countries, advocating for fair adaptation, mitigation, and implementation strategies.

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Oil Prices Rise as Peak Summer Fuel Use and OPEC+ Cuts Tighten Supply

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Oil prices climbed on Monday, driven by forecasts of a supply deficit stemming from peak summer fuel consumption and ongoing OPEC+ production cuts.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose 53 cents, or 0.6% to $85.53 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased by 51 cents, or 0.6%, to $82.05 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, extended most of their deep oil output cuts well into 2025.

This led analysts to forecast supply deficits in the third quarter as transportation and air-conditioning demand during summer draw down fuel stockpiles.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Friday that oil production and demand for major products rose to a four-month high in April, further supporting prices.

“We continue to hold a supportive view towards Brent, although there are concerns around demand, such as U.S. gasoline demand and Chinese apparent demand,” said Warren Patterson, an analyst at ING, in a note.

Despite these positive signals, global economic headwinds and rising non-OPEC+ output have capped gains.

Factory activity among smaller Chinese manufacturers grew at the fastest pace since 2021 due to overseas orders, a private index showed, even as a broader survey indicated weak domestic demand and trade frictions had led to another industrial sector contraction.

China remains the world’s second-largest consumer and top importer of crude.

Hopes of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical concerns in Europe and between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have also kept a floor under prices, according to Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

WTI’s recent rally may extend towards $85 a barrel if prices remain above the 200-day moving average at $79.52, Sycamore noted.

Traders are also watching for the impact of hurricanes on oil and gas production and consumption in the Americas.

The Atlantic hurricane season began with Hurricane Beryl on Sunday. Beryl, the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record, headed toward the Caribbean’s Windward Islands, where it is expected to bring life-threatening winds and flash flooding on Monday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

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