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Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Seizes Market Share from Europe with Surging Gasoil Exports

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Dangote refinery

Nigeria’s newly operational Dangote oil refinery is making waves in the oil industry, rapidly increasing its gasoil exports to West Africa and capturing significant market share from European refiners.

According to traders and shipping data, this $20 billion refinery is already altering the landscape of oil exports in the region.

Despite currently producing a lower grade of gasoil than anticipated, due to pending restarts of key units needed for cleaner fuel production, the refinery has been actively seeking buyers in neighboring markets.

In May, Dangote’s gasoil exports soared to nearly 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), almost doubling the levels recorded in April, as per data from analytics firm Kpler.

The majority of these exports were directed to West African countries, with one shipment reaching Spain.

However, preliminary data for June shows a significant decline in gasoil volumes. Despite this, overall oil product exports, including fuel oil, naphtha, and jet fuel, remained robust at 225,000 bpd.

The rise of Dangote’s refinery has significantly impacted European markets. A European distillates trading source told Reuters, “The refinery has shifted the balance in West Africa.”

This shift is reflected in Kpler data, which shows that EU and UK gasoil exports to West Africa fell to a four-year low of 29,000 bpd in May.

Russian exports to the region also dropped to an eight-month low of 87,000 bpd in the same month.

In Nigeria, Dangote has been selling some high-sulphur gasoil, leading to disputes with local fuel retailers over responsibility for distributing the dirtier fuel.

The Petroleum Industry Bill passed in 2021 mandates a sulphur content of 50 parts per million (ppm) to align with sub-regional ECOWAS standards.

However, the regulator allowed the sale of gasoil with sulphur content above 200 ppm locally from the beginning of the year until June, giving local refineries and importers more time to comply with the new standard.

As European countries tighten regulations on high-sulphur gasoil exports, cargoes from the Dangote refinery have found a market in regions with more lenient motor fuel standards.

This shift is crucial as European refiners face increasing constraints, while West African countries continue to demand more fuel.

Earlier in May, Aliko Dangote, the Chairman of the Dangote refinery, stated that once fully operational, the refinery would supply products to West and Central African countries due to its capacity being too large for Nigeria alone.

This expansion underscores the refinery’s potential to reduce the $17 billion in oil imports into the continent and could even lead to the closure of some European refineries.

The refinery’s impact is evident with West Africa becoming the largest regional recipient of Europe’s gasoline exports in 2023, receiving roughly one-third of the continent’s average exports, which totaled 1.33 million barrels per day (bpd).

The Dangote refinery’s rapid ascent and substantial increase in gasoil exports mark a significant shift in the oil export dynamics of West Africa, promising to reshape the region’s energy landscape for years to come.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Merger and Acquisition

Oando Secures 100% Stake in Nigerian Agip Oil Company, NUPRC Announces

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Oando PLC has completed the acquisition of 100% of the shares of Nigerian Agip Oil Company Limited (NAOC Ltd).

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) confirmed the completion of the deal on Wednesday.

NUPRC Chief Executive, Engineer Gbenga Komolafe, made the announcement at the ongoing Oil and Gas Energy Week in Abuja, a significant event sponsored by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and other industry stakeholders.

The acquisition marks a significant milestone for Oando, a leading indigenous energy solutions provider, solidifying its position in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

“This acquisition is a testament to Oando’s commitment to expanding its footprint in the upstream sector,” said Komolafe. “The divestment agreement with ENI, which includes the full acquisition of NAOC Ltd, has been successfully finalized, and we look forward to the signing ceremony in the coming days.”

The NAOC deal is part of a broader wave of acquisitions and divestments within Nigeria’s oil industry, reflecting a dynamic shift in the sector.

Alongside Oando’s acquisition, other major transactions include Equinor’s completed deal with Project Odinmin and the ongoing due diligence for Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited’s (SPDC) transaction with the Renaissance Consortium.

Seplat Energy Offshore Limited is also advancing its proposed takeover of ExxonMobil Nigeria’s offshore shallow water operations, pending ministerial consent.

Oando’s acquisition of NAOC significantly boosts its operational capacity, increasing its participating interests in key Oil Mining Leases (OMLs) from 20% to 40%.

This strategic move not only enhances Oando’s production capabilities but also positions the company to leverage new opportunities in Nigeria’s oil-rich regions.

The NUPRC has emphasized the importance of adhering to regulatory frameworks to ensure smooth transitions and protect national interests.

Komolafe highlighted that while divestments are the right of investors, they must be conducted within the rule of law and best practices to avoid the pitfalls experienced by other countries.

“Countries like Brazil, Canada, and the UK have faced challenges with divestments that were not well-managed,” Komolafe noted. “We aim to avoid similar issues by ensuring that divestments in Nigeria are carried out with thorough due diligence, safeguarding financial capacity, technical capability, and environmental responsibilities.”

Oando’s acquisition aligns with Nigeria’s broader energy strategy, which includes diversifying its energy portfolio and attracting foreign investment.

The country is also focusing on becoming a hub for green hydrogen production, leveraging its abundant solar radiation to support Europe’s energy needs.

As Oando takes the helm of NAOC, the company is expected to drive initiatives that enhance oil production and contribute to sustainable energy solutions.

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Guinness Nigeria’s Nine-Month Report Shows N60.45 Billion Loss

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Guiness

Guinness Nigeria Plc, one of the leading brewery companies in the country, has reported a financial downturn in its latest unaudited report for the nine months ending March 2024.

The company recorded a loss before tax of N60.45 billion, its first loss in five years while in the same period last year, the company reported N9.94 billion in profit.

The loss is attributed to a combination of increased operational expenses and significant foreign exchange (FX) pressures. Operating expenses surged by 9% from N44.43 billion to N48.50 billion.

This rise in costs, coupled with an 89% increase in FX loss to N83 billion, largely driven by a $22.5 million loan from its parent company and the float in exchange rate in 2023, severely impacted the company’s bottom line.

Despite these challenges, Guinness Nigeria’s revenue saw a notable increase of 27%, climbing to N220.30 billion from N172.47 billion the previous year.

This revenue growth was primarily due to increased local sales, indicating a strong market presence despite the financial hurdles.

Analysts at CardinalStone noted that the elevated cost pressures are expected to persist in the coming quarters, driven by rising inflation affecting locally sourced raw materials and foreign exchange volatility impacting imported products.

They anticipate a flattish EBIT margin of 10.1% for the full year 2023/2024, influenced by high energy prices and increased marketing expenses due to intense industry competition.

The challenging economic environment has led to a significant increase in the prices of many commodities.

Nigeria’s headline inflation hit a 28-year high of 33.95% in May, reflecting the declining purchasing power of consumers.

Despite the current financial setback, there is optimism about the future. Analysts expect a recovery in EBIT margin to 10.2% in the 2024/2025 fiscal year, supported by the localization of raw materials, improved export earnings, and reduced foreign currency exposure.

The recent acquisition of a majority stake by Tolaram, coupled with long-term licensing agreements, is anticipated to provide synergistic benefits and strong revenue growth.

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Shell and Ardova Launch “Power Conference” to Tackle Energy Challenges

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Shell

Ardova Plc, a leading indigenous energy company, and global lubricants giant Shell International have joined forces to launch the inaugural “Power Conference.”

The event, themed “Powering Nigeria’s Industries – Enhancing Productivity and Competitiveness,” was held in Lagos and drew significant attention from key stakeholders across the energy sector.

The conference stems from a strategic partnership between Ardova Plc and Shell International, highlighting their joint commitment to advancing Nigeria’s energy sector and fostering economic development.

The collaboration aims to create a platform for discourse on innovative energy solutions and collaborative approaches to drive industrialization and sustainable growth in the country.

In his opening remarks, Abdulwasiu Sowami, Group Executive Chairman of Ardova Plc, said its important to address the nation’s energy challenges through collective efforts.

“The Shell Power Conference serves as a nexus for experts and stakeholders to readdress the pressing challenges facing the Nigerian power sector.

“It underscores the critical need for collaborative approaches to drive industrialization for growth and development.

“At Ardova Plc, our vision is to promote power as a national aspiration by meticulously designing and recognizing key opportunities to provide adequate results,” Sowami stated.

Moshood Olajide, Managing Director at Ardova, reiterated the company’s commitment to fostering innovation and sustainability within the energy sector.

“The Shell Power Conference provides an invaluable platform for collaboration and knowledge-sharing, which is essential for driving progress in our industry. We are excited to participate in discussions that will shape the future of energy and look forward to the opportunities that arise from this esteemed gathering,” Olajide said.

The conference also featured discussions on initiatives and projects aimed at transitioning Nigeria towards a sustainable energy future, aligning with global efforts to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions.

Keynote speakers and panelists explored innovative solutions and technologies that can enhance productivity and competitiveness in Nigeria’s business landscape.

Samir Mahgoub, Regional Sales Manager for Africa and European markets at Shell International, expressed enthusiasm about the partnership with Ardova.

“We are excited to collaborate with Ardova at the Shell Power Conference in our bid to advance sustainable energy solutions across Nigeria and the West African market. This conference is an opportunity to exchange ideas and explore innovations that will drive energy transition,” Mahgoub noted.

One of the highlighted innovations at the conference was the Shell Lubricant Solution, which utilizes proprietary Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) technology to convert natural gas into high-quality base oils for lubricants.

These GTL-based lubricants are designed to offer greater reliability and superior performance, particularly for the power sector’s transmission and distribution operations.

At the conclusion of the event, attendees expressed optimism about the future of Nigeria’s energy sector and commended Ardova and Shell for their proactive efforts in addressing energy challenges.

The “Power Conference” is expected to be an annual event, serving as a catalyst for ongoing dialogue and collaboration among industry stakeholders to drive sustainable growth and development in Nigeria’s energy landscape.

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