During the Asian trading session on Friday, oil prices sustained their upward increase to set the stage for a third consecutive weekly gain.
This rise is fueled by growing optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates and improving refining margins.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, saw an increase of 48 cents, or 0.56% to settle at $86.87 a barrel.
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil gained 52 cents, or 0.64% to settle at $82.26 a barrel.
This positive trend persists despite unexpected increases in U.S. crude inventories, which had been anticipated to decline during the peak summer demand period.
“Crude oil edged higher despite weak near-term fundamentals,” commented ANZ analysts. They attributed the price rise to a broader market risk-on tone, triggered by data signaling further weaknesses in the U.S. labor market.
The market’s optimism has been further buoyed by rising expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve easing cycle.
Traders are now pricing in a 64% chance of a rate cut by September, up from 50% just a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Lower interest rates could potentially stimulate oil demand by reducing borrowing costs for consumers.
The recovery in physical refining margins has also supported the oil markets. The Singapore complex refining margins have averaged $1 higher in June compared to May, standing at around $3.60 a barrel.
Ivan Mathews, head of Asia refining at FGE, said, “Heading to Q3, we expect refining margins to remain around current levels. We anticipate gasoline prices to continue rising through August, offset by easing diesel cracks amid lengthening East of Suez balances.”
Despite the overall positive sentiment, market analysts are cautious about several downside risks. Fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, which is at a two-month high, and political uncertainty in France could impact oil demand.
Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA, highlighted, “The downside risk factor at play is related to USD volatility, bearing in mind the U.S. core PCE inflation data due later today.”
Wong also noted that oil prices might face short-term profit-taking at the start of next week if the first-round results of the French legislative election on June 30 show lower public support for a far-right group advocating a halt to green energy development.
