Brent crude prices fell on Monday, reversing some of last week’s gains as traders anxiously awaited the release of key economic data from China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil.
After climbing 3.8% last week — the first weekly rise in four — Brent crude edged down toward $82 a barrel. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading near $78 a barrel.
The market’s attention is now focused on China’s scheduled release of industrial output and crude refining figures for May, which are expected to provide crucial insights into the economic health and energy demand of the country.
China’s oil refining — known as crude throughput — is anticipated to be flat or even decline this year for the first time in two decades, excluding the downturn experienced in 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This projection is based on a survey conducted by Bloomberg among market analysts.
In 2023, China processed a record volume of crude oil as demand rebounded, but signs of robust supply and persistent concerns over Chinese demand have kept oil prices trending lower since early April.
The situation was further complicated by OPEC+’s recent decision to increase output this year, which initially unsettled the market. Key members of the cartel have since clarified that production adjustments could be paused or reversed if necessary.
“Crude has room for growth,” said Gui Chenxi, an analyst at CITIC Futures Co. “The third quarter is typically the peak season globally and should drive oil processing and demand higher.”
Market participants are keenly watching the forthcoming data, as any indications of weakening demand could weigh heavily on prices.
Conversely, stronger-than-expected industrial activity could support prices and offset some of the recent bearish sentiment.
The ongoing uncertainty has led to cautious trading, with investors reluctant to make significant moves until more concrete information is available.
This cautious approach underscores the delicate balance the oil market is trying to maintain amid fluctuating global economic signals.
As the world’s top crude importer, China’s economic performance is a key barometer for global oil demand. The data expected from China will not only influence immediate trading strategies but also provide longer-term market direction.
In the meantime, the oil market remains on tenterhooks, reflecting the broader uncertainties in the global economy.
