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South Africa’s GDP Shrinks Amid Political Jitters

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s economy is grappling with a new wave of uncertainty as the nation faces political turmoil following its recent elections.

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2024, reversing the revised growth of 0.3% seen in the previous quarter, according to a report released by Statistics South Africa on Tuesday.

This contraction has sent ripples through the economy, causing widespread concern among economists, investors, and citizens alike.

The GDP decline was largely attributed to contractions in key sectors, particularly mining, manufacturing, and construction.

These sectors, which together comprise more than 20% of the nation’s GDP, have been hit hard by weak demand and a resurgence of rotational power cuts.

Statistician General Risenga Maluleke reported that the mining and quarrying sector’s contribution to GDP fell by 25 billion rand ($1.3 billion) to 100 billion rand, while the manufacturing sector saw a reduction of 26 billion rand, dropping to 217 billion rand for the quarter.

The contraction took most analysts by surprise. Of the eleven economists surveyed by Bloomberg, only two anticipated the downturn, highlighting the pervasive unpredictability in South Africa’s economic landscape.

This unexpected slump has also impacted the national currency, with the rand trading 0.9% weaker at 18.6883 per US dollar as of 1 p.m. in Johannesburg.

Economic indicators suggest that the upcoming second quarter may see some improvement due to reduced congestion at ports, enhanced electricity capacity, and a potential rise in global commodity prices.

However, the outlook remains heavily dependent on the political climate and the alliances formed by the ruling African National Congress (ANC) post-elections.

The ANC, which lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994 in the May 29 elections, is currently in coalition talks with several opposition parties.

The political landscape is fraught with uncertainty. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s allies are advocating for a coalition with the centrist Democratic Alliance (DA), while his opponents prefer aligning with the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or the newly established uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), led by former President Jacob Zuma.

The nature of the coalition will significantly influence investor sentiment and economic policy.

According to Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec Bank Ltd., “A lot depends on the politics and what type of alliances we see.”

A coalition with the DA is expected to boost investor confidence, spurring investment and economic growth. Conversely, a partnership with the EFF or MKP could create initial apprehension among investors due to potential policy shifts, particularly towards looser fiscal policies that could drive up borrowing costs, slow economic growth, and exacerbate the deficit and debt burden.

Household spending, which constitutes about two-thirds of the GDP, fell by 0.3% in the first quarter, reflecting the pressures of persistently high interest rates and economic instability.

This decline in consumer spending underscores the broader economic challenges facing South Africa as it navigates through this period of political and economic turbulence.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Senate Calls on FG to Boost Capital Budget Funding for National Development

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The Senate has called on the Federal Government to enhance funding for the capital components of the national budgets, which are currently lagging behind.

This call was made during a session on Wednesday by the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriation, Senator Solomon Adeola, who emphasized the importance of capital expenditure in showcasing the government’s performance and driving national development.

During the session, Senator Adeola expressed concerns over the inadequate funding of capital projects in the 2024 national budget.

He highlighted that only N1.84 billion out of the allocated N9 trillion capital expenditure had been utilized so far, a figure he described as “nothing to write home about.”

“It is the capital component of the budgets that will showcase this government largely in terms of performances,” Senator Adeola said. “The capital components tend to showcase various projects that will be executed by this government, and people can say the government is doing this, it’s doing that. That is why we are emphasizing the performance of the 2024 capital component of the project.”

The committee session featured appearances by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun, and the Accountant-General of the Federation, Oluwatoyin Madein, who were invited to discuss the performance of the budgets.

Adeola urged the Finance Minister to engage more with the Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to ensure they are aware of the current funding arrangements and to accelerate the release of funds for capital projects.

The Senate also plans to organize a public hearing on the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), inviting stakeholders from the oil and gas sector, including the Finance Minister, to discuss the corporation’s financial operations and strategies.

Despite the challenges in funding capital projects, Adeola commended the Finance Minister for achieving 100% funding for the 2023 supplementary budget.

However, he stressed the need for consistent updates and periodic reports on the implementation levels of these projects to ensure transparency and accountability.

In response, Minister Edun acknowledged the Senate’s concerns and pledged to intensify efforts in monitoring revenue-generating agencies and improving the funding of capital projects.

He also provided updates on the Federal Government’s ongoing forensic investigation into the N30 trillion Ways and Means, aimed at scrutinizing past financial practices to enhance future fiscal responsibility.

Edun highlighted the challenges faced in the procurement of electric and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles due to a spike in freight costs, but reassured that efforts were being made to address these issues.

“We are also interrogating the N22.7 trillion that we met on the ground. We instituted a forensic audit to see the impact. We are also interrogating the revenues that are due to us from everybody because we need to,” Edun said.

The Senate’s call for increased capital budget funding underscores the critical role of capital expenditure in national development, infrastructure improvement, and public service delivery.

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Nigeria Aims for $1 Trillion Economy by 2030 with New Inclusion Initiative

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Nigerian Breweries - Investors King

In a bold move to propel Nigeria towards a $1 trillion economy by 2030, the federal government has launched an ambitious initiative aimed at establishing an operating model and framework for economic and financial inclusion.

This initiative, announced on Wednesday, underscores the administration’s commitment to combating poverty and driving sustainable economic growth from the ground up.

Vice President Kashim Shettima, speaking during the kickoff meeting for the initiative, highlighted its significance as a core component of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

The Vice President emphasized that this project symbolizes the administration’s dedication to enhancing financial and economic inclusion across Nigeria.

“This initiative represents our unwavering commitment to providing universal access to financial services and creating a broad-based prosperity that will lift millions out of poverty,” Shettima said. “At the heart of every strategy championed by President Tinubu, there has been a need to prioritize inclusive economic growth and development.”

The launch of the Aso Accord on Economic and Financial Inclusion on April 25, 2024, laid the groundwork for this multi-faceted blueprint.

The accord aims to achieve universal access to financial services, addressing both economic and security challenges through inclusive growth.

Vice President Shettima noted several positive outcomes from the administration’s efforts, including the recent upgrade of Nigeria’s credit outlook to positive by Fitch Ratings.

This upgrade reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic trajectory and the progress of policy reforms aimed at easing the country’s debt service burden.

“While such an upgrade by a distinguished institution reflects growing confidence in our economic trajectory, particularly in light of policy changes aimed at easing our debt service burden, we remain mindful of the short-term impacts of these reforms,” Shettima said.

“Hence, we are prioritizing measures to mitigate immediate effects, from the Student Loan Act, which democratizes access to education, to the relentless efforts of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security in combating food insecurity.”

The Vice President stressed that the approach to inclusive growth must be strategic and sustainable, hence the elevation of economic and financial inclusion to the agenda of the National Economic Council (NEC).

This body includes governors from all 36 states and the FCT minister, who participate in crucial policy deliberations alongside other stakeholders.

“You have been entrusted with a vital national assignment, and I have full confidence that you will bring your best efforts to ensure its success,” Shettima told the implementation team.

“As we embark on this essential initiative, I call upon each of you to contribute your insights, expertise, and dedication. Only through such resolve and discipline can we forge a robust operating model that will drive economic and financial inclusion across our nation, ensuring every Nigerian has the opportunity to thrive.”

Technical Advisor to the President on Financial Inclusion, Dr. Nurudeen Abubakar Zauro, reported substantial progress in implementing the Aso Accord on financial inclusion.

The initiative has garnered support and funding from notable organizations, including the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Lagos Business School.

Dr. Zauro detailed the ongoing efforts to set up the operating model and legal framework to ensure the project’s smooth takeoff and alignment with the Renewed Hope Agenda.

The team includes Augmentum Advisory, Banwo & Ighodalo, and Ndarani (SAN) & CO. He also highlighted plans for capacity-building initiatives and high-profile training for permanent secretaries and finance commissioners to enhance practical knowledge of financial inclusion.

Prof. Olayinka David-West, Project Manager at the Lagos Business School, commended the administration for prioritizing economic and financial inclusion.

She noted that the initiative aims to establish a legal framework and national coordination to drive ownership and successful implementation across the country.

The project seeks to galvanize relevant authorities and stakeholders to key into the initiative, creating a robust platform for inclusive economic growth that will transform Nigeria into a $1 trillion economy by 2030.

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EU-Nigeria Trade Volume Falls by 18.7%, Oil Remains Key Import

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Trade - Investors King

The trade volume between the European Union (EU) and Nigeria rose to €24.6 billion in 2023, an 18.7% decline from the previous year.

Despite the downturn, oil continues to dominate as the primary import from Nigeria, according to Miriam Ferran, Deputy Director General of the Directorate of International Partnerships (INTPA) at the European Commission.

Ferran disclosed these figures during her address at the 9th Edition of the EU-Nigeria Business Forum, themed “Investing in Jobs and Sustainable Future,” held in Abuja.

Ferran emphasized the EU’s significant role in Nigeria’s economic landscape, highlighting that the EU remains Nigeria’s largest trading partner, first investor, top donor of humanitarian and development aid, and possesses the most extensive diplomatic network.

“EU-Nigeria trade relations favor Nigeria, with crude oil contributing the majority of imports from Nigeria,” she said.

The forum also saw the launch of the EU-Nigeria Agribusiness Platform, a digital initiative designed to bolster private investments in Nigeria’s agribusiness sector.

This platform was developed in consultation with the Nigerian government and aims to create a structured dialogue between Nigerian and EU farming and agri-food communities.

“The platform is intended to promote trade, attract responsible investment, and foster business linkages, particularly for SMEs,” Ferran noted.

She underscored the importance of sustainable agriculture for Nigeria’s economic development and growth, stating, “Sustainable agriculture is a cornerstone for economic development and sustainable growth in Nigeria. The agricultural sector contributes around a quarter of the gross domestic product (GDP).”

Ferran highlighted the efforts of successive Nigerian governments to diversify the economy away from crude oil dependence by rejuvenating the agricultural sector through various policies and programs.

Despite the positive initiatives, the need to improve non-oil trade between Nigeria and the EU remains critical. The EU-Nigeria Agribusiness Platform, managed by Agribusiness Register Limited, a private sector entity familiar with the agribusiness ecosystem, aims to address this need.

The platform will engage with selected agribusinesses, farmer groups, aggregators, and other key stakeholders to nurture partnerships and collaboration.

“The initiative will contribute to the reduction of food insecurity and poverty as well as the attainment of sustainable economic development in Nigeria,” Ferran added.

By promoting trade and investment, the platform seeks to boost the exploration and exploitation of agribusiness opportunities between Nigeria and the EU.

The platform’s primary focus is to create linkages and interactions between Nigerian and EU agribusiness stakeholders, especially among SMEs.

It will also work closely with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, the Federal Ministry of Industry Trade and Investment, the Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC), the Standards Organization of Nigeria, and the Ministry of Communication and Digital Economy.

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