The pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could drop to N300 per litre once local production ramps up significantly, according to operators of modular refineries.

This projection hinges on the provision of sufficient crude oil to domestic refiners, which they say would undercut the exorbitant costs currently imposed by foreign refineries.

Speaking under the aegis of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), the refiners stressed the urgency for the government to ensure a steady supply of crude oil to local processing plants.

They argue that the reliance on imported petroleum products has been economically disadvantageous for Nigeria.

Eche Idoko, Publicity Secretary of CORAN, emphasized that the current high costs could be mitigated by boosting local production.

“If we begin to produce PMS in large volumes and ensure adequate crude oil supply, the pump price could be reduced to N300 per litre. This would prevent Nigerians from paying nearly N700 per litre and stop foreign refiners from profiting excessively at our expense,” Idoko stated.

The potential price drop follows the model seen with diesel, which experienced a significant price reduction once the Dangote Petroleum Refinery began its production.

“Diesel prices dropped from N1,700-N1,800 per litre to N1,200 per litre after Dangote started producing. This is a clear indication that local production can drastically reduce costs,” Idoko explained.

In a previous statement, Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, affirmed that Nigeria would cease importing petrol by June 2024 due to the Dangote Refinery’s capacity to meet local demand.

Dangote also expressed confidence in the refinery’s ability to cater to West Africa’s diesel and aviation fuel needs.

Challenges and Governmental Role

However, achieving this price reduction is contingent on several factors, including the provision of crude oil at the naira equivalent of its dollar rate.

CORAN has advocated for this approach, citing that it would bolster the naira and reduce the financial burden on refiners who currently buy crude in dollars.

The Nigerian government has shown some commitment towards this goal. Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), confirmed that a framework has been developed to ensure consistent supply of crude oil to domestic refineries.

“We have created a template for the Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation to foster seamless supply to local refineries,” Komolafe stated.

Industry Reactions

Oil marketers have welcomed the potential for reduced petrol prices. Abubakar Maigandi, President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), expressed optimism about the Dangote Refinery’s impact on petrol prices.

“We expect the price of locally produced PMS to be below the current NNPC rate of N565.50 per litre. Ideally, we are looking at a price around N500 per litre,” Maigandi noted.

The Nigerian Federal Government announced on Tuesday that it will reduce the importation of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, by approximately $4.4 billion annually through the adoption of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG).

This announcement was made under the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative (PCNGI).

The initiative aims to convert one million diesel and petrol-powered vehicles to run on CNG, providing a substantial financial reprieve for the country.

According to Zayyan Tambari, Coordinator for Regulations, Compliance, and Facilitation at PCNGI, this move is expected to save Nigeria around $4.4 billion annually in petrol import costs.

Speaking at the Co-Creation Session on Nigeria Gas Vehicle Monitoring System in Abuja, Tambari highlighted the Federal Government’s target to replace 20% of the 50 million liters of petrol consumed daily in Nigeria with CNG.

This shift is part of a broader strategy to enhance energy sustainability and economic resilience.

Tambari’s statements followed a report indicating that the Federal Government had already commenced the rollout of CNG-powered buses and tricycles.

The initiative was officially launched in Ilorin, Kwara State, with Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazak inaugurating a refueling and conversion center.

The launch included the unveiling of CNG buses and tricycles, marking the beginning of a nationwide deployment.

The Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, confirmed the launch, emphasizing the Federal Government’s commitment to expanding CNG infrastructure.

“Ilorin’s launch is just the beginning. We are setting up refueling and conversion centers across the country,” Onanuga said.

During the co-creation session in Abuja, the PCNGI noted that an investment of about $890 million would be required to develop the necessary infrastructure for the alternative fuel.

Ekperikpe Ekpo, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), represented by Abel Nsa, underscored the government’s dedication to maximizing the benefits of Nigeria’s abundant gas resources.

Ekpo emphasized the need for public education and adherence to safety standards in the use of CNG.

“We must educate ourselves and adopt new tools and materials to ensure the safe and efficient use of CNG,” he stated, drawing a parallel to the economic impact of mobile phone adoption during former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s tenure.

Ogbugo Ukoha, Executive Director for Distribution System, Storage, and Retailing Infrastructure at the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), announced that new filling stations would only be licensed if they provide CNG dispensing points.

“We are engaging stakeholders to mandate the conversion of fuel trucks and fleet owners to CNG, given the high cost of diesel,” Ukoha said.

Michael Oluwagbemi, Project Director and CEO of PCNGI, highlighted the economic and environmental advantages of CNG, stating that it is cheaper, cleaner, safer, and more sustainable than petrol.

He stressed the importance of a smooth transition, strong regulatory compliance, and cooperation across the ecosystem to ensure the success of the CNG initiative.

The PCNGI has already commenced a nationwide CNG conversion program for mass transit buses, starting in Lagos, Kwara, the Federal Capital Territory, and Rivers states.

The program is being executed in partnership with major transport unions, including the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), Road Transport Employers’ Association of Nigeria (RTEAN), and Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO).

The initial phase involves eight of over 120 designated conversion workshop sites, with plans to scale up operations across 15 states in the next 45 days.

“This ambitious initiative aims to convert mass transit vehicles to cleaner energy sources, significantly reducing emissions and promoting environmental sustainability,” Oluwagbemi stated.

This landmark initiative marks a significant step towards reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol, promoting the use of domestic gas resources, and advancing the country’s environmental sustainability goals.

As the nation embarks on this journey, the anticipated $4.4 billion annual savings will be a critical boost to Nigeria’s economy.

Aliko Dangote, the Chairman of the Dangote Group and Africa’s wealthiest individual has announced that Nigeria is poised to attain fuel independence by next month.

Dangote made this assertion during his participation as a panelist at the Africa CEO Forum Annual Summit held in Kigali.

The announcement comes as a result of the Dangote Refinery’s ambitious plan, which aims to eliminate the need for Nigeria to import premium motor spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, within the next four to five weeks.

According to Dangote, the refinery already operational in supplying diesel and aviation fuel within Nigeria, possesses the capacity to fulfill the diesel and petrol requirements of West Africa and cater to the aviation fuel demands of the entire African continent.

Dangote expressed unwavering confidence in the refinery’s capabilities, stating, “Right now, Nigeria has no cause to import anything apart from gasoline and by sometime in June, within the next four or five weeks, Nigeria shouldn’t import anything like gasoline; not one drop of a litre.”

He said the refinery is committed to ensuring self-sufficiency in the continent’s energy needs, highlighting its capacity to significantly reduce or eliminate the need for fuel imports.

The Dangote Refinery’s accomplishment marks a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for energy independence. With the refinery’s robust infrastructure and advanced technology, Nigeria is poised to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products, bolstering its economic stability and reducing its reliance on foreign imports.

Dangote’s remarks underscored the transformative potential of the refinery, not only for Nigeria but for the entire African continent.

He emphasized the refinery’s role in fostering regional energy security, asserting, “We have enough gasoline to give to at least the entire West Africa, diesel to give to West Africa and Central Africa. We have enough aviation fuel to give to the entire continent and also export some to Brazil and Mexico.”

Dangote further outlined the refinery’s broader vision for Africa’s economic advancement and detailed plans to expand its production capacity and diversify its product range.

He highlighted initiatives aimed at promoting self-sufficiency across various sectors, including agriculture and manufacturing, with the ultimate goal of reducing Africa’s dependence on imports and creating sustainable economic growth.

Dangote’s vision for a self-reliant Africa resonates with his long-standing commitment to investing in the continent’s development.

He concluded his remarks by reiterating the refinery’s mission to transform Africa’s energy landscape and drive socio-economic progress across the region.