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Internet Subscriptions Hit 159 million in August ’23 – Coronation Economic Note

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Broadband Penetration - Investors King

According to the latest data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), internet subscriptions stood at 159 million in August ’23, reflecting a 4.4% y/y increase.

Meanwhile, on a m/m basis, internet subscriptions declined marginally by -0.3%. Internet subscriptions remain resilient despite visible changes in consumption patterns. Indeed, the importance of social connectivity remains high, even in times of economic challenges.

Social media platforms, messaging apps, and online communities continue to be crucial for maintaining connections, sharing information, and staying informed, driving sustained internet usage.

Furthermore, Nigeria has witnessed a surge in entrepreneurship and digital innovation. Startups
and small businesses often rely on the internet for their operations, from marketing to sales.

This entrepreneurial ecosystem contributes to the consistent demand for internet services.

In a separate report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which broke down subscription levels by states, Lagos state recorded the highest number of active internet subscribers in Q3 ’23 with 19.2 million, then Ogun state with 9.5 million and Kano with 8.7 million.

Meanwhile, Bayelsa recorded the lowest with 1,2 million. The demand for and accessibility of internet services vary among states.

The differences in internet subscriptions between Lagos and Bayelsa can be attributed to population density, infrastructure development, business ecosystems as well as educational and entertainment centers.

Returning to the NCC data, MTN accounted for the largest share (38.6%) of internet subscriptions
in August ’23.

Meanwhile, Globacom, Airtel, and 9mobile accounted for 27.9%, 27.3%, and 6.3% respectively. It is worth noting that Airtel, 9mobile and Globacom recorded marginal m/m increases in total internet subscriptions at +0.1%, +0.3%, and +0.1% respectively. Meanwhile, MTN recorded a -0.4% decline during this period.

Based on MTNN ‘s 9-month financial results (Jan-Sep ’23), service revenue increased by 21.7% y/y. The y/y uptick can be attributed to increases in both data revenue (15.3% y/y). Despite the commendable revenue generation, we saw a notable contraction in profit due to rising operating expenses.

The latest national accounts released by the NBS show that telecommunications grew by 7.7% y/y and accounted for 13.5% of total GDP in Q3 ’23. If Nigeria’s ICT sector maintains double-digit growth over five consecutive years, it could lead to substantial economic expansion.

Our in-house estimate suggests a GDP growth rate in the range of 1-2 percentage points per year. This
projection considers the sector’s direct contribution to GDP, as well as its indirect impact on other sectors through increased productivity, innovation, and connectivity.

Broadband penetration increased to 45.6% in August ’23 vs 44.4% recorded in the corresponding period of 2022. The FGN had set a broadband penetration target of 70% by 2025. This goal was outlined in the National Broadband Plan (NBP) 2020-2025. The current gap can be closed by 2025.

However, roadblocks need to be addressed. Such as delays and difficulties in obtaining the right of way for laying fiber optic cables which are slowing down broadband deployment.

In 2020, the Nigerian Governors’ Forum resolved that telecom operators should pay a RoW fee of N145 per linear meter of fiber. Notably, only Nasarawa, along with Kaduna, Ekiti, Katsina, Plateau, and Ekiti,
opted for zero charges.

Meanwhile, the FCT had disclosed a charge of N14.50 per linear meter RoW charges (a 90% reduction from the regular fee) in 2022.

Effectively mitigating RoW challenges in Nigeria demands a nuanced, strategic approach. Streamlining regulatory frameworks and establishing transparent fee structures are imperative to diminish unnecessary delays and financial uncertainties for infrastructure developers. Additionally, introducing digital platforms for RoW processes aligns with global best practices, enhancing administrative efficiency and minimizing bureaucratic hurdles.

Engaging stakeholders through sustained dialogue and community sensitization becomes paramount, fostering a collaborative environment conducive to infrastructure development. Public-private partnerships should be strategically leveraged, with a focus on incentivizing private sector involvement in broadband deployment.

The creation of standardized RoW agreements and dedicated task forces can institutionalize efficient decision-making processes, ensuring consistency and fair negotiations.

Regarding opportunities within ICT, digital transformation services feature on the list. Businesses are increasingly seeking innovative solutions such as cloud computing, cybersecurity, and data analytics to enhance efficiency and competitiveness.

Furthermore, telecommunications infrastructure development continues to offer avenues for expansion and upgrades, including the deployment of advanced technologies such as 5G. This addresses the escalating demand for data and connectivity in a rapidly digitizing society. Cybersecurity Services also remain important, the increasing reliance on digital platforms necessitates robust solutions to safeguard businesses from evolving cyber threats.

The FGN has shown a commitment to expanding digital infrastructure. Initiatives aimed at improving broadband penetration and increasing internet accessibility, especially in rural areas, contribute to the overall growth and resilience of internet subscriptions and by extension, the broader economy.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Telecommunications

Nigeria to Expand Internet Access with 90,000km of Fibre Optic Cable

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In a bid to bridge the digital divide and enhance internet accessibility across Nigeria, the Federal Government has approved an initiative to expand the country’s internet infrastructure by laying an additional 90,000 kilometers of fiber optic cable.

The announcement was made by the Minister of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani, who said the project will bolster national connectivity and optimize the utilization of existing submarine cables landed in Nigeria.

Tijani explained that the project will increase Nigeria’s fiber optic cable capacity from the current 35,000 kilometers to 125,000 kilometers.

This expansion positions Nigeria to become the third-largest terrestrial fiber optic backbone in Africa, trailing behind South Africa and Egypt.

The project will be overseen by a special purpose vehicle (SPV), a separate legal entity established to manage the implementation, finances, and operations of the fiber optics initiative.

Drawing inspiration from successful public-private partnership models like the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System Plc (NIBSS) and Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), the SPV will ensure efficient governance and operations.

According to Tijani, the extensive fiber optic coverage will enable Nigeria to leverage the benefits of its eight submarine cables more effectively, thereby driving increased utilization of data capacity beyond the current 10 percent usage rate.

Moreover, the enhanced connectivity will facilitate the connection of over 200,000 educational, healthcare, and social institutions across the country, promoting inclusivity and broadening access to internet services.

The minister said the project aims to address the digital exclusion of approximately 50 percent of the 33 million Nigerians currently without internet access.

By expanding internet connectivity, the initiative is poised to contribute significantly to the country’s economic growth, with projected GDP growth of up to 1.5 percent per capita over the next four years.

Last week, a report by the Groupe Special Mobile Association revealed that 71 percent of Nigerians lack regular access to mobile internet.

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Naira Devaluation Spurs Airtel Africa’s $549 Million Forex Loss

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Airtel Financial Results - Investors King

Telecommunications giant Airtel Africa Plc reported foreign exchange loss of $549 million that contributing to an overall loss after tax of $89 million for its full fiscal year ending March 2024.

The telecom company’s latest financial report, released on Thursday, highlighted the significant impact of currency devaluations on its bottom line.

The devaluations of both the naira in June 2024 and the Malawian kwacha in November 2023 resulted in substantial forex losses, exacerbating the financial challenges faced by the company.

The $89 million loss after tax was primarily attributed to the $549 million net of tax impact of exceptional derivative and foreign exchange losses.

This setback underscores the vulnerability of companies operating in economies with volatile currency markets.

Despite the forex challenges, Airtel Africa’s reported revenue decline by 5.3 percent to $4.98 billion. The depreciation of the naira played a significant role in this decline.

However, the company noted that its revenue in constant currency actually grew by 20.9 percent, with fourth-quarter growth accelerating to 23.1 percent.

Airtel Africa emphasized that Nigerian constant currency revenue growth saw a notable acceleration to 34.2 percent in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year, despite the challenging economic backdrop marked by currency fluctuations.

The telecommunications sector, like many others, is sensitive to currency devaluations, as it impacts the cost of imported equipment, infrastructure, and services.

Airtel Africa’s experience underscores the importance for multinational corporations to navigate and mitigate currency risks effectively in markets prone to volatility.

As Nigeria and other countries grapple with economic uncertainties and currency fluctuations, companies operating within these environments must employ robust risk management strategies to safeguard against potential forex losses and maintain financial stability.

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Telecom Tax, Other Levies Back on the Table for $750m Loan

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world bank - Investors King

In a bid to secure a $750 million loan from the World Bank, Nigeria is considering the reintroduction of previously suspended telecom taxes and other fiscal measures.

This potential move comes as part of the Stakeholder Engagement Plan for Nigeria – Accelerating Resource Mobilisation Reforms program between the country and the World Bank.

The program, aimed at strengthening the government’s financial position by enhancing its capacity to manage and mobilize domestic resources effectively, outlines plans to improve tax and customs compliance and safeguard oil revenues.

Among the proposed measures are the reintroduction of excises on telecom services and the EMT levy on electronic money transfers through the Nigerian Banking System.

President Bola Tinubu had previously ordered the suspension of the five percent excise duty on telecommunications and the Import Tax Adjustment levy on certain vehicles in July 2023.

However, negotiations between the government and the World Bank suggest that this suspension may be lifted to meet the targets of the new loan program.

The World Bank’s contribution of $750 million constitutes a significant portion of the program’s budget, with the government expected to contribute $1.17 billion through annual budgetary allocations.

The proposed tax reforms under the ARMOR program are expected to have far-reaching implications across various economic sectors.

Stakeholders that would be affected by these measures include telecom and banking service providers, manufacturers of goods such as alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, and sugar-sweetened beverages, as well as the general tax-paying public, importers, and international traders.

Key industry groups, such as the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria, are being engaged regarding the excise duties on telecom services.

The planned reintroduction of these taxes is part of a larger governmental initiative aimed at reforming tax and excise regimes, enhancing the administrative capabilities of tax and customs, and ensuring transparency in oil and gas revenue management from 2024 to 2028.

The program also emphasizes the importance of engaging vulnerable groups to mitigate any disproportionate impact of these changes.

Additionally, the program outlines specific allocations for technical assistance, including investments in better data sharing systems, risk-based audits, compliance processes, and capacity building for institutions such as the Federal Inland Revenue Service and the Nigeria Customs Service.

While the reintroduction of telecom taxes and other levies may face resistance from some stakeholders, the government sees them as essential steps toward achieving its fiscal targets and unlocking much-needed financing for development projects.

As negotiations with the World Bank continue, Nigeria must balance its revenue needs with the potential impact on businesses and consumers.

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