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Nigeria Falls Short of OPEC Quota, Under-Producing by 3 Million Barrels in November

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OPEC - Investors King

In a setback to Nigeria’s efforts to meet its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil quota, the nation reported a significant underproduction of 3 million barrels in the month of November compared to October, according to OPEC figures released on Wednesday.

Nigeria’s self-reported production for November stood at 1.25 million barrels per day, a notable decline from the 1.35 million bpd recorded the previous month.

This 100,000 bpd loss resulted in a cumulative deficit of 3 million barrels over the entire 30 days of November.

The nation has been grappling with meeting its OPEC quota for over three years, citing challenges such as oil theft, asset vandalism, and a decline in investment in the oil sector.

Despite these struggles, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, remains optimistic, asserting that Nigeria will surpass 1.7 million bpd in 2024.

However, it’s worth noting that the 1.25 million bpd figure excludes condensates, which fall outside OPEC’s computation of total crude oil produced.

The persistent shortfall has raised concerns about Nigeria’s ability to adhere to its production commitments and underscores the ongoing challenges faced by the country in the oil sector.

The OPEC report also shed light on Nigeria’s economic performance in Q3 2023, noting a 3.1% year-on-year increase, driven by robust activity in non-oil sectors, particularly services and agriculture.

However, inflationary pressures, with the inflation rate reaching 27.3% year-on-year, pose challenges to the nation’s economic landscape.

As Nigeria grapples with meeting its oil production targets, OPEC maintains a cautious optimism about the 2024 oil market fundamentals, countering what it deems “exaggerated concerns” about demand and attributing recent price drops to speculative market dynamics.

While global oil prices have experienced a downturn, hovering near $72 a barrel, OPEC+ has implemented new production cuts for the first quarter of 2024.

The report acknowledges the impact of speculators on market sentiment but remains hopeful about the fundamental factors affecting oil market dynamics in the coming year.

Nigeria’s struggle to align with OPEC production quotas not only raises economic concerns but also highlights the complexities and uncertainties in the global oil market.

The nation faces the dual challenge of meeting international commitments while navigating domestic economic dynamics and external market pressures.

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Economy

Solid Minerals Sector Adds Over N1 Trillion to Nigerian Treasury in 16 Years – NEITI

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mining sector

The Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) said the solid minerals sector has contributed around N1.137 trillion in direct payments to various government levels over 16 years.

This was disclosed in the 2023 Solid Minerals Audit Report, the 16th audit cycle, which provided a comprehensive overview of the sector’s contributions from 2007 to 2023 published on Wednesday.

The report was conducted by indigenous firm Haruna Yahaya and Co., and covered the solid minerals industry’s economic contributions, revenue streams, and exports, providing recommendations for sector reforms.

The report showed a substantial increase in government receipts from N7.59 billion in 2007 to N341.27 billion in 2022, a 44-fold rise, indicating solid sector growth.

The 2023 report underscored the sector’s evolution into a vital revenue contributor for Nigeria, with cumulative contributions now exceeding N1 trillion. It disclosed that in 2022, the sector generated N345.41 billion, with a reconciled final revenue of N329.92 billion.

Meanwhile, the report also identified the solid minerals sector’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution at 0.83 percent in 2022, with incremental growth to 0.75 per cent in 2023, underscoring untapped potential.

The initiative reiterated the policy measures and reforms needed to unlock the sector’s capacity to significantly contribute to Nigeria’s economic diversification

“Company payments analysis indicated that total government revenue, including reconciled and unilaterally disclosed figures, reached N401.87 billion in 2023.

“Key revenue streams included VAT (N128.32 billion), FIRS taxes (N370.09 billion), Education Tax (38.64 percent), Company Income Tax (10.64 percent), and royalties (N9.06 billion).

The report also showed that discrepancies initially amounted to N301.6 billion but were reconciled down to N100 million, demonstrating NEITI’s transparency commitment.

The production and export data showed 95.07 million tonnes of minerals produced in 2023, with a significant export volume of 4.32 million metric tonnes, valued at N117.29 billion.

The report highlighted top mineral-producing states, including Ogun, Kogi, and Rivers, with Ogun leading production. Revenue contributions were led by Osun, Ogun, and Kogi states

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FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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