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Oil Prices Decline Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting Amid Economic Concerns

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Crude oil - Investors King

Global oil prices experienced a fourth consecutive day of decline as traders anticipated the delayed OPEC+ meeting later this week, coupled with a prevailing risk-off sentiment in broader financial markets.

Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel, representing a 2.3% retreat over the last three sessions while West Texas Intermediate hovered around $75.

The OPEC+ meeting, originally scheduled for November 26, faced a four-day postponement to November 30 due to disagreements over production quotas.

Despite a Bloomberg survey indicating that approximately half of traders and analysts expect additional measures from OPEC+ to tighten the market, oil prices weakened.

The recent decline in crude futures, down nearly 20% from late September, is attributed to increased supply from non-OPEC+ countries and the diminishing risk premium related to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

The International Energy Agency’s prediction of a market surplus next year further contributed to market concerns.

Analysts emphasize the importance of OPEC+ demonstrating significant supply discipline to alleviate apprehensions about a potential oil surplus in 2024.

Market indicators, such as WTI’s prompt spread in contango, suggest deteriorating conditions, reflecting a bearish sentiment.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, a chemical tanker with ties to an Israeli-affiliated company was boarded in the waters between Yemen and Somalia, underscoring the vulnerability of shipping in the region.

On a different note, the upcoming COP28 summit in the United Arab Emirates, starting Thursday, adds complexity as the summit’s president also heads the OPEC-producing state oil company, making it a contentious climate summit.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Slide as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Surge, Heightening Demand Concerns

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Oil prices declined on Thursday as concerns over demand intensified due to a larger-than-anticipated build in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by 0.5% to $83.25 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 0.3% to $78.28 a barrel.

The Energy Information Administration’s report revealed a substantial increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles by 4.2 million barrels to 447.2 million barrels for the week ending February 23rd.

This surge surpassed analysts’ expectations and marked the fifth consecutive week of rising inventories.

While gasoline and distillate inventories witnessed a decline, concerns regarding a sluggish economy and reduced oil demand in the U.S. were amplified.

Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities, highlighted that the significant stockpiles have heightened investor worries.

Moreover, the anticipation of delayed U.S. interest rate cuts further weighed on market sentiment, potentially undermining oil demand.

Traders have adjusted their expectations for rate cuts, with an easing cycle predicted to commence in June rather than March as previously anticipated.

Market participants await the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index for insights into inflation trends, while the possibility of an extension of voluntary oil output cuts from OPEC+ looms over price dynamics, amid lingering uncertainty in the demand outlook and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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Crude Oil

Crude Oil Shortage Threatens Dangote, Government Refineries, Minister Raises Alarm

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Dangote Refinery

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has sounded a clarion call over a looming crude oil shortage that threatens the operations of the newly inaugurated Dangote Petrochemical Refinery and government-owned refineries in Nigeria.

Addressing stakeholders at the seventh edition of the Nigeria International Energy Summit in Abuja, Minister Lokpobiri expressed concerns that unless deliberate efforts are made to increase investments and crude oil production, these refineries may struggle to obtain enough feedstock for petroleum product manufacturing.

The Dangote refinery, a colossal project spearheaded by Dangote Industries Limited, has a daily requirement of up to 650,000 barrels of crude oil, while government-owned refineries could need approximately 400,000 barrels.

However, the current pace of crude oil production and investment in Nigeria falls short of meeting these demands.

Minister Lokpobiri highlighted the need to ramp up production and attract investments in the upstream sector to ensure adequate feedstock supply for the refineries.

He emphasized the importance of efficiently utilizing Nigeria’s abundant oil and gas reserves to enhance domestic energy security and economic prosperity.

Furthermore, the minister underscored the significance of investing in energy infrastructure and transitioning towards more environmentally friendly practices to address Nigeria’s energy needs effectively.

The alarm raised by Minister Lokpobiri underscores the urgency for strategic interventions and collaborative efforts to mitigate the impending crude oil shortage and secure the future of Nigeria’s refining industry amidst evolving global energy dynamics.

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Oil Prices Surge as Brent Approaches $83, WTI Nears $78 Amidst Refinery Buying Activity

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Crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil approached the $83 price level while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) neared $78 as refineries in the United States and China increased purchases.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, gained 1.1% on Monday, signaling a bullish trend in the oil market.

The recent uptick in oil prices comes amidst signs of heightened demand from refineries, particularly in key markets like the US and China.

This surge in demand has contributed to the strengthening of timespreads, indicating tighter conditions in the near term.

Market observers are closely monitoring the International Energy Week in London, where industry leaders are convening to discuss the outlook for the global energy market.

Scheduled speakers include Russell Hardy, the CEO of Vitol Group, a major player in the energy sector.

While tensions in the Middle East and production cuts by the OPEC+ alliance have supported crude prices, increased production from non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, has capped potential gains.

Analysts predict that oil prices may continue to trade within a range, with Brent crude expected to hover around $83, while WTI remains near the $78 mark, barring significant shifts in market dynamics.

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