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Asian Markets Follow US Rally as Interest Rate Peak Looms

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Asian markets saw gains today, echoing Friday’s rally in US stocks and bonds as investors increasingly believe that interest rates have reached their peak for the current economic cycle.

Equities in Australia, Japan, South Korea, and China all posted gains, pushing a regional stock gauge to its highest level in nearly a month. This marked the fourth consecutive advance of more than 1%.

South Korea’s benchmark index jumped by 4% following Sunday’s announcement that the country would ban short-selling.

This restriction took effect on Monday and is set to last until the end of June next year, as declared by South Korea’s Financial Services Commission.

Investors have adjusted their predictions for Federal Reserve rate cuts next year, with swaps pricing suggesting that a cut by June is fully priced in. This increased expectation for rate cuts stems, in part, from projections of a weaker jobs report and a slight uptick in US unemployment.

Vasu Menon, Managing Director of Investment Strategy for OCBC Bank Singapore, commented, “There’s a bit more reason for investors to be more optimistic that the Fed is probably done with rate hikes, but one should not let one’s guard down. If the economy proves to be more resilient, if inflation proves to be more stubborn, bond yields could go up once again.”

Most Asian currencies advanced against the dollar, with the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah leading the way. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields inched up in Asian trading after a nine-basis-point drop on Friday.

Forecasts for Federal Reserve cuts next year challenge the narrative of “higher for longer” that policymakers have outlined in recent months, potentially setting the market and Fed officials on a collision course.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, addressing the central bank’s inflation target, mentioned that the bank cannot yet see its inflation target within sight with enough certainty, although the chances of achieving the goal are gradually rising.

Looking ahead, investors will closely watch the Reserve Bank of Australia’s potential interest rate increase after a four-meeting pause in rate hikes. China is set to release trade data following Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s pledge to expand imports in Sunday’s comments.

In the commodities market, oil prices rose slightly in Asia following Saudi Arabia and Russia’s reaffirmation of their commitment to supply curbs of over 1 million barrels a day through the year-end.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Shares Reconstruction: Transcorp Lists Newly Reconstructed 10,161,997,574 Units of Ordinary Shares

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Transnational Corporation Plc (Transcorp) has delisted 40,647,990,293 shares from the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Monday and listed a newly reconstructed issued share capital of 10,161,997,574 ordinary shares.

In a statement seen by Investors King, the company said “We refer to our market bulletin with reference number NGXREG/IRD/MB73/24/10/10, dated 10 October 2024, wherein the Market was notified that trading in the shares of Transnational Corporation Plc (Transcorp or the Company) was placed on suspension effective, Thursday, 10 October 2024, in preparation for the share reconstruction of the Company’s Issued shares.

“The Market is hereby notified that the entire 40,647,990,293 issued shares of Transcorp were delisted from the Daily Official List of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) on Monday, 28 October 2024, while the newly reconstructed issued share capital of 10,161,997,574 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each were also today, listed on the Daily Official List of NGX at N44.2 per share.

“The delisting of 40,647,990,293 ordinary shares and listing of 10,161,997,574 ordinary shares on NGX is pursuant to the approval received from the Company’s shareholders at its Annual General Meeting of 27 May 2024 and the no-objection received from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

“Consequently, following the completion of the share reconstruction, the suspension placed on the securities of the Company has been lifted.”

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Transcorp Gains 314.03% Last Week Despite NGX Closing the Red

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Transnational Corporation Plc (Transcorp), Nigeria’s largest listed conglomerate, gained N34.70 or 313.03% a share last week to close at N45.75 a unit after the company’s unaudited financial statement for the third quarter showed 352% year-on-year growth in profit before tax to N34.566 billion.

During the week, investors on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) transacted 2.717 billion shares worth N54.632 billion in 46,848 deals, against a total of 2.142 billion shares valued at N85.946 billion that exchanged hands in 41,217 deals in the previous week.

The Financial Services Industry led the activity chart with a combined 1.821 billion shares valued at N28.958 billion traded in 20,173 deals, therefore, contributing 67.01% and 53.01% to the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively.

The ICT Industry followed with 389.848 million shares worth N6.560 billion in 2,515 deals. In third place was the Conglomerates Industry with a turnover of 160.993 million shares worth N4.746 billion in 3,623 deals.

Fidelity Bank Plc, Chams Holding Company Plc and United Bank for Africa Plc accounted for 1.225 billion shares worth N17.721 billion in 4,912 deals and contributed 45.10% and 32.44% to the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively.

The NGX All-Share index closed the week in the red at 97,432.02 index points, a 2.03% decline from 99,448.91 index points recorded in the previous week. The Exchange year-to-date return moderated to 30.30%.

Also, the market capitalization of listed equities dipped by the same 2.03% from N60.261 trillion to N59.039 trillion.

Similarly, all other indices finished lower with the exception of NGX Banking, NGX AFR Bank Value, NGX AFR Div Yield, NGX MERI Growth, NGX MERI Value, NGX Oil & Gas and NGX Growth which appreciated by 0.19%, 1.76%, 1.52%, 0.16%, 0.48%, 1.15%, and 0.07% respectively while the NGX ASeM index closed flat.

Thirty-nine equities appreciated in price during the week lower than fifty-eight equities in the previous week. Forty-five equities depreciated in price higher than eighteen in the previous week, while sixty-eight equities remained unchanged, lower than seventy-six recorded in the previous week.

 

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Naira Depreciation and High Interest Rates Force Market Slowdown, Experts Say

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Stockbrokers and investors have abandoned the equity market due to the Naira volatility, lack of market drive towards the end of the year,  and the high interest rate in Nigeria.

A long-time investor, David Adonri explained that the volume of trade usually drops towards the end of the year but the market normalises in January.

With the persistent drop in the value of the Nigerian Naira against foreign currencies, investors are wary of unfavourable currency conversion.

“The equity market reacts to so many things. The depreciation of the naira, which is around N1,700, of course, would impact the market. The foreign exchange position can make people exit the market and convert to hard currency, which is stronger, possibly to come back to the market when they see an improved currency level. That is what we call carry-over trade,” Adonri said.

“We also have the hike in the interest rate, which also causes financial assets to migrate away from the capital market,” Adonri added.

“Third, we are in the period of the year, where seasonally, the market is a little bit down because there is nothing specific to drive the market like full-year results or half-year dividends and so on. So we slide to a low tempo from September up to November until after Christmas the market starts trending up again,” he further stated.

According to a report by the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), equity investment transactions dropped in Q3, 2024 compared to the previous quarter of the year.

In the same vein, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that capital importation showed that investors shifted from equity investment to portfolio investment.

The portfolio investment includes equity, bonds, and money market instruments.

With the recent shift, the portfolio investment made a 10.37 percent increase amounting to a $106.85 million gain from the N1.03 billion total capital inflow.

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