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Improved Demand at the Latest Bond Auction – Coronation Economic Note

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The Debt Management Office (DMO) held its monthly auction of FGN Bonds on Monday (16 October ’23). It offered N360bn but raised N334.8bn through re-openings of 14.55% FGN APR 2029, 14.70% FGN JUN 2023, 15.45% FGN JUN 2038, and 15.70% FGN JUN 2053 bonds.

The participation level (demand) at this auction increased by 31.7% m/m to N383.1bn compared with N290.9bn recorded in September ’23. The bids for the 10, 10, 15, 30-year benchmarks were allotted at the marginal rates of 14.90%, 15.75%, 15.80%, and 16.60% respectively.

The bid-to-cover ratio stood at 1.2x.

The demand at this auction reflects improved system liquidity. This is in sharp contrast with September’s bond offering which recorded a relatively lower subscription of N290.9bn.

Inflows from FGN bond coupon payments, NTB maturity, and FAAC payout within the period boosted system liquidity as it outweighed outflows from NTB auctions. We note that market liquidity stood at N448.8bn while call, overnight and repo rates closed within the range of 1% – 6% as money market rates moderated on Friday (13 October ’23; i.e., the previous working day before the auction).

Looking ahead, we expect relatively healthy system liquidity in the coming months (November and December 2023) largely due to inflows from FGN bond coupon payments and NTB maturities. Based on our estimates, these maturities and coupon payments collectively amount to N1.2trn.

We note that demand was significant for the longer-tenure bonds (JUN 2038 and 2053 bonds) given their attractive yields (15.80% and 16.60% respectively). However, negative real interest rates (currently -7.95%) due to elevated inflation continue to dampen investor’s sentiments toward investing in FGN bond instruments.

The latest inflation report by the NBS shows September’s headline inflation increased by +92bps to 26.70% y/y. We understand that the new CBN Governor has not ruled out further rate hikes as a mechanism for combating inflationary pressures. Another moderate rate hike in the near-term is not far-fetched.

Domestic institutions remained the core participants at this bond auction. According to the latest monthly report released by Nigeria’s Pension Commission (PENCOM), the assets under management (AUM) of the pension industry increased by 18.7% y/y and 1.8% m/m to N17.1trn in July ‘23. FGN bonds accounted for 62.8% of total assets under management.

The DMO is set to raise a maximum of N4.8trn in FY 2023 through FGN bond issuances.

However, YTD, it has raised N4.6trn (meeting 95.8% of its target). Overall, we maintain our stance that the FGN is likely to exceed its domestic borrowing target of N7.04trn by end2023.

In a separate report, the DMO disclosed that it offered N150bn but raised N350bn through the issuance of its sixth Sovereign Sukuk Bond. The interest rate for the 10-year instrument was pegged at 15.75% per annum.

We note that the bond was oversubscribed as demand stood at N652.8bn. According to the DMO, the funds raised would be channeled towards the construction and rehabilitation of critical infrastructure projects such as roads and bridges across the country.

Over the next one month, we see mid-curve FGN bond yields in the secondary market around 14.9% – 15.5% at the short-end of the curve and yields at the longer-end of the curve between 15.0% – 16.5%

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Investor Appetite Wanes as FG Bond Auction Sees Lowest Participation of the Year

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Subscription for the Federal Government bond auction on May 13, 2024 was the lowest so far in 2024.

Despite the subdued interest, the government successfully raised N380.76 billion, albeit experiencing a 39 per cent reduction compared to the proceeds from the previous month’s auction.

The aggregate subscription across all tenors amounted to N551.316 billion, representing a decrease from the N920.08 billion recorded in the preceding month.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) reported a non-competitive allotment of N301.30 billion.

The auction featured various bond tenors with the new 9-year bond taking center stage. This bond attracted substantial interest, garnering N373.875 billion in subscriptions.

Of this amount, N285.124 billion was allotted, inclusive of N179.00 billion under non-competitive bids.

The bids ranged from 16.95 per cent to 22.00 per cent, eventually settling at a marginal rate of 19.89 per cent.

Meanwhile, the 7-year bond received bids totaling N76.875 billion, with N62.975 billion allotted. Non-competitive allotments accounted for N85.80 billion.

The bids ranged from 17.20 per cent to 20.80 per cent, resulting in a final marginal rate of 19.74 per cent.

In addition, the 5-year bond attracted bids amounting to N100.56 billion, with an allotment of N32.67 billion.

An additional N36.500 billion was allocated through non-competitive bids. Bids spanned from 17.50 per cent to 21.00 per cent, and the marginal rate was set at 19.29 per cent.

The subdued subscription level in May 2024 indicates a lack of robust investor participation in government bonds compared to previous auctions.

This decline in investor interest could be attributed to various factors, including prevailing market conditions, economic uncertainties, and evolving investment preferences.

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African ESG Bond Issuance Surges to $4.4bn in 2024

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The landscape of sustainable investment in Africa is experiencing a significant upswing as the issuance of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) bonds by African entities hit $4.4 billion in 2024.

This substantial increase highlights a growing commitment among African institutions to raise funds for investments aligned with ESG principles.

The surge in ESG bond issuance underscores a broader trend towards responsible and sustainable investing on the continent.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) emerges as a key player in this segment, having successfully issued social bonds worth $2 billion in January 2024, in addition to hybrid sustainable bonds amounting to $750 million.

Joining the AfDB in this endeavor is the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), which, with the support of the African Export-Import Bank, has issued bonds totaling €500 million.

This momentum in the ESG bond market has propelled financial institutions like BNP Paribas, JPMorgan, and Bank of America Securities into leading positions as arrangers for such bonds on the continent.

The surge in ESG bond issuance reflects a broader global trend towards sustainable finance, with the total value of emissions of this kind expected to reach $950 billion in 2024, according to Moody’s.

It is evident that ESG bonds are gaining traction in Africa, supported by development finance institutions and initiatives aimed at fostering sustainable economic growth and development across the continent.

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Coinbase Unveils $1 Billion Convertible Bond Plan to Fuel Growth

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Coinbase Global, Inc., the renowned cryptocurrency exchange platform, has announced its strategic move to bolster its financial position by initiating a private sale of $1 billion in convertible senior notes.

The bonds, set to mature in 2030, come with an additional provision allowing initial buyers to acquire an extra $150 million to address potential over-allotments.

This ambitious plan, aimed at fortifying Coinbase’s financial foundation, underscores the company’s commitment to fostering growth and expansion in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

The proceeds from the convertible bond issuance are earmarked for “working capital and capital expenditures,” reflecting Coinbase’s strategic vision to drive innovation and enhance its market presence.

Convertible bonds offer a unique avenue for Coinbase to raise capital, providing investors with the flexibility to convert their holdings into company stock.

This approach not only diversifies Coinbase’s funding sources but also potentially reduces interest costs compared to traditional debt financing methods.

The decision to opt for convertible bonds aligns with Coinbase’s strategy to navigate market dynamics effectively while maximizing shareholder value.

Amidst recent operational challenges, including glitches during bitcoin’s price surges, Coinbase remains steadfast in its pursuit of growth opportunities.

Coinbase’s move to secure $1 billion through convertible bonds underscores its confidence in the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency industry.

As the company continues to innovate and adapt to market trends, investors are poised to witness Coinbase’s strategic vision translate into sustained growth and value creation in the dynamic world of digital assets.

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