French Influence Wanes in Africa: Is Macron’s Africa Policy Doomed?

As a series of coups rock African nations, questions are arising about the effectiveness of French President Emmanuel Macron’s ambitious vision for a new era of Franco-African relations.

Macron had pledged to break with the past and end the long-standing “Françafrique” era, characterized by cozy relationships with autocratic leaders.

However, recent events suggest that his Africa policy may be facing significant challenges.

The turmoil in Gabon, following similar upheavals in Niger, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Chad over the past three years, is forcing a sober reassessment of France’s role in the continent. While Macron’s presidency began with promises of a fresh approach to Africa, observers argue that the reality has not matched the rhetoric.

Thierry Vircoulon, an analyst at the French Institute of International Relations, bluntly stated, “Macron’s Africa policy is dead.” This assessment comes as France grapples with the loss of several African allies during Macron’s tenure, raising concerns about the viability of its influence on the continent.

Michel Duclos, a former French ambassador and resident senior fellow at the Institut Montaigne think-tank, believes that it’s time for France to start anew.

He commented, “We won’t escape a re-evaluation of our policy. The problem isn’t to assess whether or not our strategy in Africa is a failure or not — we did what we could, we did our duty — but now we need to start from scratch and think.”

The recent coups highlight that France can no longer dictate the course of African affairs. Instead, the armies of these nations, often with popular support, are sidelining leaders whose connections to the West ran through Paris.

In each of the six countries that have witnessed coups in the past three years, France maintains significant economic, political, and security ties.

Also read: Tensions Escalate as French Ambassador to Niger Expelled

The revolts in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger were fueled, in part, by frustration with the French-led fight against jihadists in the Sahel, a conflict that has resulted in thousands of casualties and millions of displaced people.

As Paris embarks on a reevaluation of its approach to Africa, it must address the presence of thousands of French troops stationed on the continent. While this military presence once bolstered France’s influence, it has also bred mistrust among African nations.

“France’s declining influence in West Africa is a blow for these connections,” noted Duclos, reflecting on the changing dynamics of Franco-African relations.

Furthermore, France faces the challenge of determining its stance toward other Francophone allies in the region. These include autocrats who have ruled with an iron fist for decades and leaders like Ali Bongo of Gabon, who have taken over from their fathers.

Rahmane Idrissa, a political scientist at the African Studies Centre at the University of Leiden, criticized French policymakers for failing to adapt their Africa policy to the growing demand for genuine democracy in Francophone Africa.

He argued, “French decision makers didn’t really adapt their policy toward Africa, taking into consideration the thirst for genuine democracy in Francophone Africa. So in Central Africa, they kept supporting — or tolerating — those dictators, those despots.”

As France grapples with these challenges, the future of its Africa policy hangs in the balance. The events unfolding on the continent indicate that it is high time for France to reassess its approach, redefine its role, and forge a new path in its engagement with Africa.

Whether Macron’s vision for a transformed relationship with the continent can be realized remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the status quo is no longer tenable.