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Experts Propose Gradual Subsidy Easing: Oil Industry Urges President Tinubu to Reconsider Fuel Pricing Approach

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Oil industry experts offered President Bola Tinubu recommendations on Tuesday, suggesting a gradual easing of the subsidy removal on Premium Motor Spirit, commonly known as petrol.

The advice stems from importers’ challenges in procuring United States dollars, which has led to significant repercussions for businesses.

Despite this, President Tinubu remained steadfast in his rejection of fuel price increases and the restoration of fuel subsidies.

Meanwhile, petroleum product marketers extended their counsel to the President by highlighting the Kenyan example as they emphasized that Kenya, in response to the adverse consequences of subsidy removal, had been compelled to reintroduce subsidies on petrol to mitigate the severe impact experienced by the citizens.

“Let them not do the needful, they will see the consequences. We learned this morning that Kenya, which equally removed subsidy and noticed that its effect was so hard on the citizens, has again resumed the subsidy regime for the period of two months,” the Secretary, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Abuja-Suleja, Mohammed Shuaibu, told our correspondent.

He added, “Government is about the people and it must have a listening ear. For Nigeria, how can we be an oil producing nation with four refineries and all of them are down. We now depend on imports.

“When he (Tinubu) announced that thing (subsidy removal), we said it was going to bring problems. Are we not feeling the consequences of that announcement now? It is forex that largely determines the cost of petroleum products here.

“Marketers are not willing to import products again,  So if the government is going to relax the removal of subsidy for a while, it should better do that as a matter of urgency.”

Shuaibu argued that despite the fact that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited announced earlier on Tuesday that it had no intention of increasing petrol price, the cost of the commodity would rise above its current N617/litre in weeks, if the exchange rate continues to increase.

“Relaxing subsidy removal is going to be a very wise decision right now, because going by the price of the dollar, the cost of petrol is bound to rise. In fact, some oil marketers are ready to join the labour union to protest,” he added.

Some dealers had said subsidy on petrol would gradually creep in, should the NNPCL continue to sell at N617/litre, particularly if the rise in forex rate persists.

The National Public Relations Officer, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chief Chinedu Ukadike, said the outright removal of subsidy would cause severe hardship.

“I’ve been saying this even before subsidy on petrol was removed. How can you stop subsidy without anything on ground as palliatives?

“Trips that used to be N5,000 in the past and now over N15,000. Businesses are shutting down. The suffering is rising. The government has to intervene now,” he stated.

The IPMAN PRO had earlier explained that the price of imported commodities, including petrol, would continue to rise as far as the rate of exchange of the dollar increases.

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Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Economy

Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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