As the October cocoa harvest approaches, optimism is growing among West African farmers buoyed by soaring cocoa prices.

However, the industry faces persistent challenges, particularly from swollen shoot disease, which continues to threaten cocoa production despite favorable weather conditions.

Moussa Konate, a cocoa farmer from a small plantation in Ivory Coast, is seeing the fruits of a brighter season.

His trees are now laden with healthy, green pods, a promising sign after last year’s devastating crop loss due to disease.

The upcoming harvest is expected to be significantly better, buoyed by the arrival of essential pesticides and improved weather conditions attributed to the La Niña phenomenon.

Yet, while the outlook is improving, the cocoa industry in West Africa remains fraught with challenges. Swollen shoot disease, an incurable viral infection, remains a significant hurdle.

The disease reduces the yield of infected cocoa trees by up to 70% and is forcing many farmers to cut down not only diseased trees but also those nearby, as a preventative measure.

The economic landscape is more promising. Cocoa prices have surged to record levels, driven by ongoing supply shortages and increased demand.

Analysts forecast that prices could average around $7,000 per ton in 2024, a significant drop from the highs earlier this year but still well above historical norms.

This price surge is attracting new entrants into cocoa farming, particularly in regions like Cameroon and Nigeria, where farmers are reporting impressive yields and substantial earnings.

In contrast, established cocoa giants like Ivory Coast and Ghana are grappling with persistent issues.

Despite attempts to adjust farmgate prices and combat the disease, many farmers still struggle with limited resources.

The high costs of pesticides and fertilizers remain out of reach for many, and illegal mining activities, particularly in Ghana, are exacerbating the problem by destroying valuable agricultural land.

The broader West African cocoa belt is seeing mixed results. Early indicators suggest that Ivory Coast could experience a 10% increase in output this season, reaching about 2 million tons.

However, the spread of swollen shoot disease and irregular weather patterns pose ongoing risks.

In Ghana, where aging trees and diseases are also prevalent, farmers are calling for higher prices to support their operations and curb the impact of illegal mining, which threatens their land and livelihood.

Despite these challenges, there is a glimmer of hope. Improved weather conditions and rising prices are revitalizing the industry, drawing new investment and boosting the spirits of many farmers.

Nevertheless, experts emphasize the need for continued support and coordinated efforts to address disease management and sustainable farming practices to ensure the long-term health of the cocoa sector.

The newly operational Dangote Refinery is poised to make significant waves in Europe’s oil industry, according to the latest report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The world’s largest single-train refinery, located in Lagos, Nigeria, is expected to challenge Europe’s established fuel suppliers, particularly in the Northwest Europe (NWE) gasoil market.

OPEC’s June 2024 Oil Market Report highlights the Dangote Refinery as a major new player in the global oil supply chain, with its increasing production capacity set to pressure Europe’s refined petroleum product markets.

The refinery’s output, particularly in diesel and jet fuel, could disrupt the traditional flow of these products into Europe, making it a key contender in the region’s energy sector.

“Upside potential for higher production levels from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, coupled with strong flows from the Middle East and new supplies from the Mexican Olmeca refinery, will likely exert pressure on NWE gasoil performance in the mid-term,” OPEC stated in its report.

The $20 billion refinery, owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, began operations in January 2024 and has already started to influence global oil dynamics. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the refinery’s entry into the European market is expected to alter established trade patterns and challenge the dominance of existing suppliers.

According to industry analysts at Standard & Poor Global, the Dangote Refinery’s full capacity could significantly reshape international crude markets.

“Nigeria’s $20 billion Dangote Refinery would shake up international crude flows when it reaches full capacity, having already made an impact since coming online in January,” noted the report.

In a strategic move to penetrate the European market, the refinery recently completed its first successful export of jet fuel to the continent.

Devakumar Edwin, Vice President of Oil and Gas at Dangote Industries Limited, confirmed that more than 90 percent of the refinery’s production has been exported since the start of operations, with Europe being a key destination.

“BP is currently transporting its first jet fuel cargo to Rotterdam from Dangote, after being awarded part of a 120,000 metric tonnes tender offered for the end of May,” reported S&P Global.

Despite its promising start, the Dangote Refinery has faced challenges in securing a steady supply of crude oil, particularly from within Nigeria.

The refinery has had to rely on U.S. WTI Midland crude to supplement its operations, which has begun to tighten the global market for light, sweet crude oils such as Nigeria’s Bonny Light.

Aliko Dangote has addressed these challenges, emphasizing the refinery’s commitment to utilizing Nigerian crude as its primary feedstock.

“The refinery was built to use Nigerian crude and add value to it within Nigeria. Why should we deviate from that focus?” Dangote stated.

However, he acknowledged that the refinery remains open to sourcing crude from other regions, including Libya, Angola, and Brazil, as supply issues are resolved.

The refinery’s operations are already impacting crude flows, particularly in Europe, the largest consumer of light, sweet Nigerian crude. With the Dangote Refinery scaling up its production, European refiners may soon find themselves in a highly competitive market, driven by Nigeria’s new refining giant.

Nigerians are grappling with an unprecedented surge in the price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), commonly known as cooking gas, which has risen to N1,250 per kilogram.

This sharp rise, up from less than N500 per kilogram just five years ago, has sent shockwaves through households across the country, exacerbating an already dire economic situation.

For many Nigerians, cooking gas has become a symbol of the broader economic hardships plaguing the nation.

Families that once relied on LPG for their daily cooking needs are now faced with the harsh reality of either drastically adjusting their budgets or seeking alternative, less costly—and often more dangerous—methods of cooking.

“How can we cook?” lamented Tosin Adelakun, a Lagos resident juggling multiple jobs to support her family. “Everything is going up, but our salaries stay the same. Now, even cooking basic meals is becoming a luxury.”

This sentiment is echoed by many across Nigeria, where the average retail price for a 5 kg refill of cooking gas now stands at N6,966.03, according to data from the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

This marks a 71.23% increase from June 2023 alone, compounding the financial strain on households already stretched thin by rising food prices, fuel costs, and a depreciating naira.

The impact of the price hike has been immediate and severe. In urban areas like Lagos, where reliance on LPG is higher, many residents are turning to alternative cooking methods such as charcoal and firewood. While these options may seem like a temporary solution, they come with their own set of health risks.

“It’s becoming unbearable to cook with gas now,” said Osuji Chidinma, a businesswoman from the Iyana Iba area of Lagos. “We are now substituting with charcoal and firewood.”

However, this shift to traditional fuels is not without consequence. Health experts have long warned of the dangers associated with cooking with firewood and charcoal, particularly for women and children, who are most often exposed to the harmful smoke.

According to a 2021 report, more than 90,000 women and children in Nigeria die annually from illnesses related to cooking smoke. That number has now risen to 98,000, reflecting the growing reliance on these hazardous alternatives.

Emmanuel Uwandu, Managing Director and CEO of Gas360, highlighted the dire health implications: “Cooking with firewood and charcoal is equivalent to smoking 20 packages of cigarettes. For an average smoker, that is too much. But this is what women in Nigeria have to deal with daily.”

The root cause of the LPG price surge has been attributed largely to foreign exchange challenges, as the naira continues to struggle against the dollar.

Olatunbosun Oladapo, President of the Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers (NALPGAM), explained that the rising costs are tied directly to the FX market, where the naira’s devaluation has driven up the price of imported gas.

“The situation is very unfortunate,” Oladapo said. “Prices are going higher, and Nigerian consumers are passing through very difficult times because they can no longer afford gas and are now depending on firewood, charcoal, and sawdust for cooking.”

As Nigerians face these compounding challenges, there is a growing call for the government to intervene.

Oladapo has urged the government to address the underlying foreign exchange issues and alleviate the burden on consumers through palliative measures, such as reducing taxes and levies on cooking gas.

Moreover, there are calls for Nigeria LNG to prioritize domestic supply over exports to help stabilize prices.

“Nigeria LNG would have to look at catering to domestic needs above exportation to cushion the effects on the masses,” Oladapo added.

For now, the outlook remains bleak as Nigerians brace themselves for continued economic hardship, with no immediate relief in sight.

The soaring cost of cooking gas is just one more hurdle for a population already struggling to make ends meet.