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Ghana’s Soaring Public Debt Raises Concerns as IMF Bailout Aims to Stabilize Economy

Short-term Central Bank Loans and Debt Restructuring Add to Mounting Fiscal Pressures

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Ghana one cedi - Investors King

Ghana’s public debt has seen a staggering 20% increase in a mere four months, largely attributed to the inclusion of short-term loans provided by the central bank to the state.

The Bank of Ghana revealed that the debt, which does not incorporate state-owned enterprises obligations, surged to a whopping 569.3 billion cedis ($49.7 billion) by the end of April.

This surge came after the central bank’s overdraft to the government was securitized in December 2022, adjusting the debt figure from a previous estimate of 434.6 billion cedis to 473.2 billion cedis.

Although Ghana’s obligations as a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) decreased to 71.1% in April from 77.5% in December, concerns over the sustainability of the nation’s debt remain at the forefront of economic discussions.

Ghana’s economic challenges have been further compounded by its eurobond default earlier this year. Seeking to stabilize the economy and mitigate the debt burden, the country initiated a debt restructuring plan in line with a $3 billion bailout program approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in May.

In an effort to make its debt more manageable, Ghana completed the first phase of a domestic debt exchange in February, allowing investors to exchange 87.8 billion cedis in obligations for new securities with lower interest rates.

This move is expected to provide some relief, especially considering that the average interest rate on the new notes dropped to as low as 8.35%, compared to the previous 19% on the old notes.

As the country continues its restructuring efforts, investors are bracing for reduced coupons on $1.5 billion worth of domestic dollar bonds and cocoa bills. Also, ongoing discussions are being held with local pension funds, bilateral partners, and eurobond holders to renegotiate and reorganize the country’s obligations.

Ghana external debt has increased to 321.4 billion cedis at the end of April from 240.9 billion cedis in December, while domestic debt rose to 247.9 billion cedis from 232.3 billion cedis over the same period.

On a positive note, Ghana’s budget deficit in the first five months of the year has significantly improved, dropping to 1.8% of GDP from 4.2% compared to the same period the previous year. The primary balance also saw an improvement, narrowing to a deficit of 0.7% of GDP from a 1.2% deficit.

However, the country faces challenges in its banking sector, as non-performing loans rose to 18.7% in June from 14.1% a year ago, leading to a drop in the capital adequacy ratio to 14.3% from 19.4%.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Akinwumi Adesina Calls for Debt Transparency to Safeguard African Economic Growth

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Akinwumi Adesina

Amidst the backdrop of mounting concerns over Africa’s ballooning external debt, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has emphatically called for greater debt transparency to protect the continent’s economic growth trajectory.

In his address at the Semafor Africa Summit, held alongside the International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2024 Spring Meetings, Adesina highlighted the detrimental impact of non-transparent resource-backed loans on African economies.

He stressed that such loans not only complicate debt resolution but also jeopardize countries’ future growth prospects.

Adesina explained the urgent need for accountability and transparency in debt management, citing the continent’s debt burden of $824 billion as of 2021.

With countries dedicating a significant portion of their GDP to servicing these obligations, Adesina warned that the current trajectory could hinder Africa’s development efforts.

One of the key concerns raised by Adesina was the shift from concessional financing to more expensive and short-term commercial debt, particularly Eurobonds, which now constitute a substantial portion of Africa’s total debt.

He criticized the prevailing ‘Africa premium’ that raises borrowing costs for African countries despite their lower default rates compared to other regions.

Adesina called for a paradigm shift in the perception of risk associated with African investments, advocating for a more nuanced approach that reflects the continent’s economic potential.

He stated the importance of an orderly and predictable debt resolution framework, called for the expedited implementation of the G20 Common Framework.

The AfDB President also outlined various initiatives and instruments employed by the bank to mitigate risks and attract institutional investors, including partial credit guarantees and synthetic securitization.

He expressed optimism about Africa’s renewable energy sector and highlighted the Africa Investment Forum as a catalyst for large-scale investments in critical sectors.

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Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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Nigeria Secures $1.05bn Oil-Backed Loan to Bolster Economy

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Bola Tinubu

Nigeria has successfully secured a significant oil-backed loan worth $1.05 billion from the African Import Export Bank.

The syndicated loan, set to be disbursed next month, represents a crucial step in the country’s efforts to revive its economy and enhance foreign exchange liquidity.

This loan forms part of a larger $3.3 billion prepayment facility orchestrated by Afreximbank, with repayment terms intricately linked to crude oil cargoes from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd.

The agreement, confirmed by Afreximbank’s Senior Executive Vice President for Finance, Administration, and Banking, Denys Denya, underscores the confidence in Nigeria’s oil reserves and its potential to generate revenue even amid global economic uncertainties.

The financial injection is expected to provide a much-needed boost to Nigeria’s economy, which has been grappling with various challenges, including fluctuating oil prices, currency devaluation, and inflationary pressures.

By leveraging its oil reserves, Nigeria aims to enhance its foreign exchange reserves and stabilize its local currency, thereby bolstering investor confidence and stimulating economic growth.

The timing of this loan is particularly significant as Nigeria seeks to navigate the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

With oil prices experiencing fluctuations and market uncertainties looming, the loan serves as a strategic mechanism to mitigate financial risks and enhance economic resilience.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited had previously announced plans to utilize funds from the $3.3 billion financing deal secured from Afreximbank to support the Federal Government in stabilizing the country’s exchange rate.

The adoption of a conservative crude oil price benchmark of $65 per barrel for the loan facility reflects a prudent approach to risk management, ensuring financial stability amidst volatile market conditions.

Furthermore, the loan disbursement is strategically tied to future oil sales, with repayments structured to align with anticipated revenue streams.

This approach not only mitigates the risks associated with oil price volatility but also ensures a sustainable and manageable debt repayment process.

While the loan provides immediate liquidity and financial flexibility, Nigeria remains committed to implementing comprehensive economic reforms to drive long-term sustainable growth.

The government’s efforts to diversify the economy, enhance infrastructure development, and promote investment in key sectors will complement the benefits derived from the oil-backed loan, fostering inclusive economic development and prosperity for all Nigerians.

As Nigeria embarks on this transformative journey, the successful acquisition of the $1.05 billion oil-backed loan represents a pivotal milestone in the country’s economic recovery efforts. With prudent fiscal management and strategic resource utilization, Nigeria is poised to unlock its full economic potential and emerge stronger in the post-pandemic era.

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