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Nigeria’s Bold Move: A State of Emergency Declared to Tackle Food Crisis

This unprecedented measure grants the government the authority to take extraordinary actions aimed at improving food supply and affordability, which have been severely impacted by surging prices.

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Agriculture - Investors King

In a resolute effort to combat the escalating food security crisis gripping Nigeria, President Bola Tinubu has declared a state of emergency.

This unprecedented measure grants the government the authority to take extraordinary actions aimed at improving food supply and affordability, which have been severely impacted by surging prices.

Speaking at a media briefing in the capital city of Abuja, Dele Alake, a spokesman for President Tinubu, outlined the key steps that will be undertaken to address the crisis. One of the strategies involves clearing forests to create additional farmland, which is expected to boost agricultural output and alleviate food inflation. These drastic measures come on the heels of the president’s recent decision to eliminate fuel subsidies and implement sweeping exchange-rate reforms since assuming office in May.

The relentless rise in food prices has made sustenance unattainable for a vast majority of Nigerians, leaving them burdened by hardships. Alake emphasized that this dire situation has resulted in a significant decline in demand, thus jeopardizing the entire agriculture and food value chain.

Nigeria, as Africa’s most populous country, has witnessed a sharp spike in food and transportation costs following the removal of fuel subsidies, which were costing the government a staggering $10 billion annually but had kept gasoline prices among the lowest globally.

To rejuvenate the agriculture sector, the government intends to channel the savings from the fuel subsidy elimination. Among the proposed measures is the establishment of a National Commodity Board responsible for monitoring food prices, maintaining strategic food reserves, and mitigating sudden price fluctuations. Furthermore, the central bank will continue to provide funding for the agricultural sector, sustaining its growth and stability.

Additionally, the government plans to release 500,000 hectares of land, including the clearing of forested areas, to expand available farmland and enhance agricultural productivity. This ambitious move is intended to address the diminished farming activities caused by years of insecurity and recent flooding in Nigeria’s main food-producing regions, particularly in the north-central area.

Even prior to the subsidy removal, consumer price growth had surged to an almost 18-year high of 22.4% in May, with food inflation outpacing the overall rate by over two percentage points. The elimination of fuel subsidies is anticipated to push the price index even higher, potentially reaching nearly 30% by the end of the year, according to Tatonga Rusike, Bank of America’s sub-Saharan Africa economist.

The consequences of these price pressures are already evident in Borno State, situated in northern Nigeria, where food prices skyrocketed by 36% and transportation fares surged by 78% within a week of subsidy removal, as reported by Mercy Corps, a humanitarian organization working in the region. This distressing situation has led to heightened hunger and an increase in petty theft at the community level, exacerbating the already precarious circumstances faced by vulnerable populations. The report also highlights the impact on education, with more students unable to attend school due to the exorbitant transportation costs.

Nigeria’s declaration of a state of emergency showcases the government’s recognition of the severity of the food crisis and its commitment to finding tangible solutions. While the road to recovery may be challenging, these extraordinary steps aim to stabilize food prices, secure the availability of essential commodities, and restore hope to the millions of Nigerians affected by this crisis.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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