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Nigeria’s Bold Move: A State of Emergency Declared to Tackle Food Crisis

This unprecedented measure grants the government the authority to take extraordinary actions aimed at improving food supply and affordability, which have been severely impacted by surging prices.

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Agriculture - Investors King

In a resolute effort to combat the escalating food security crisis gripping Nigeria, President Bola Tinubu has declared a state of emergency.

This unprecedented measure grants the government the authority to take extraordinary actions aimed at improving food supply and affordability, which have been severely impacted by surging prices.

Speaking at a media briefing in the capital city of Abuja, Dele Alake, a spokesman for President Tinubu, outlined the key steps that will be undertaken to address the crisis. One of the strategies involves clearing forests to create additional farmland, which is expected to boost agricultural output and alleviate food inflation. These drastic measures come on the heels of the president’s recent decision to eliminate fuel subsidies and implement sweeping exchange-rate reforms since assuming office in May.

The relentless rise in food prices has made sustenance unattainable for a vast majority of Nigerians, leaving them burdened by hardships. Alake emphasized that this dire situation has resulted in a significant decline in demand, thus jeopardizing the entire agriculture and food value chain.

Nigeria, as Africa’s most populous country, has witnessed a sharp spike in food and transportation costs following the removal of fuel subsidies, which were costing the government a staggering $10 billion annually but had kept gasoline prices among the lowest globally.

To rejuvenate the agriculture sector, the government intends to channel the savings from the fuel subsidy elimination. Among the proposed measures is the establishment of a National Commodity Board responsible for monitoring food prices, maintaining strategic food reserves, and mitigating sudden price fluctuations. Furthermore, the central bank will continue to provide funding for the agricultural sector, sustaining its growth and stability.

Additionally, the government plans to release 500,000 hectares of land, including the clearing of forested areas, to expand available farmland and enhance agricultural productivity. This ambitious move is intended to address the diminished farming activities caused by years of insecurity and recent flooding in Nigeria’s main food-producing regions, particularly in the north-central area.

Even prior to the subsidy removal, consumer price growth had surged to an almost 18-year high of 22.4% in May, with food inflation outpacing the overall rate by over two percentage points. The elimination of fuel subsidies is anticipated to push the price index even higher, potentially reaching nearly 30% by the end of the year, according to Tatonga Rusike, Bank of America’s sub-Saharan Africa economist.

The consequences of these price pressures are already evident in Borno State, situated in northern Nigeria, where food prices skyrocketed by 36% and transportation fares surged by 78% within a week of subsidy removal, as reported by Mercy Corps, a humanitarian organization working in the region. This distressing situation has led to heightened hunger and an increase in petty theft at the community level, exacerbating the already precarious circumstances faced by vulnerable populations. The report also highlights the impact on education, with more students unable to attend school due to the exorbitant transportation costs.

Nigeria’s declaration of a state of emergency showcases the government’s recognition of the severity of the food crisis and its commitment to finding tangible solutions. While the road to recovery may be challenging, these extraordinary steps aim to stabilize food prices, secure the availability of essential commodities, and restore hope to the millions of Nigerians affected by this crisis.

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Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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