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Nigeria’s Petrol Consumption Plummets by 28% as Subsidy Scrapped, Black Market Collapses

Daily petrol consumption dropped from 66.9 million liters to 48.43 million liters in June.

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Petrol - Investors King

In a significant shift since President Bola Tinubu’s decision to abolish fuel subsidies at the end of May, Nigeria has witnessed a remarkable 28% decrease in average daily petrol consumption.

Figures released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reveal that daily petrol consumption dropped from 66.9 million liters to 48.43 million liters in June.

For decades, the subsidy regime had kept fuel prices artificially low, but it had become increasingly burdensome for the country. In fact, last year alone, Nigeria reportedly spent a staggering $10 billion on subsidies, leading to wider deficits and escalating government debt.

The impact of scrapping the subsidy has been felt beyond Nigeria’s borders. The black market for petrol in neighboring Cameroon, Benin, and Togo, which heavily relied on smuggled fuel from Nigeria, has now collapsed.

Also, the World Bank estimates that Nigeria could save up to $5.10 billion this year by discontinuing the petrol subsidy and implementing foreign exchange (FX) reforms. Despite already spending $2.41 billion on subsidies during the first five months, this move presents an opportunity for substantial financial savings.

In response to these developments, the president of the Petroleum Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, expressed support for the government’s decision.

Gillis-Harry highlighted that PETROAN has developed the Petroleum Products Passport (PPP), a transparent framework that can efficiently collate accurate data on petroleum consumption across the country.

While commending the current administration for its political resolve in ending the subsidy regime, Gillis-Harry emphasized the need for sustainable efforts to revitalize the nation’s refineries.

In parallel, the long-awaited expansion of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) refilling outlets throughout Nigeria is now becoming a reality. Seven banks have committed to managing a revolving fund facility provided by the African Development Bank (AfDB), following the removal of the petrol subsidy.

Elder Chinedu Okoronkwo, National President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), confirmed the association’s agreement with the bank. IPMAN conducted a thorough market survey on the conversion costs of existing petrol stations into CNG outlets, leading to this milestone achievement.

Investors King can confirm that IPMAN has already initiated the identification of interested members willing to co-locate CNG dispensers and infrastructure within their existing petrol retail outlets. This strategic exercise aims to identify qualified candidates eligible for loans that will support the establishment of 10-20 colocated CNG stations in each state during the first phase of the nationwide rollout.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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