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Petrol Prices in Northern Nigeria Could Surpass N700 per Litre, Marketers Project

Northern Nigeria Braces for Potential Petrol Price Surge Above N700 per Litre

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Petrol Importation - investorsking.com

Oil marketers have projected that the pump price of petrol in Northern Nigeria might rise above N700 per litre starting from July.

Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Controller of Operations, Mike Osatuyi, revealed on Wednesday that prices could increase to over N700 in the northern region once independent marketers commence product imports.

Osatuyi explained that residents in the northern states might have to pay as much as N700 and above for one litre of petrol, while those outside Lagos should anticipate a price of around N610. Lagos residents, on the other hand, would pay approximately N600 per litre.

The downstream sector is currently awaiting fresh petroleum products as the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) continues to license operators interested in the importation business.

Olufemi Adewole, the Executive Secretary of the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, stated that the NMDPRA is presently licensing additional importers. He emphasized that the prices of products would depend on market fundamentals.

Adewole pointed out neighboring countries like Ghana, Benin, and Cameroon, which rely on Nigeria for their petroleum products. He raised concerns about smuggling activities from Nigeria to these countries.

He further elaborated, “Prices of products will depend on market fundamentals, and as we speak, the Nigeria Customs Service is delaying some AGO (diesel) vessels because of the 7.5 per cent VAT. And don’t forget, any cost incurred by marketers would be added to landing cost, and then to the pump price. The marketer would also have to add profit because they must make a profit.”

Tunji Oyebanji, a former chairman of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria and CEO/Chairman of 11 Plc, stated that consumers should expect new pump prices similar to diesel prices and those of neighboring African countries that import petrol.

A recent check revealed that as of June 19, the price of one litre of petrol in Ghana, Cameroon, and Benin was already above N800.

Currently, petrol sells for around N495 and above in Nigeria, with diesel prices approaching N800 per litre.

Oyebanji stated, “The truth now is that if you look at the prices of other West African countries that also import petrol, then you will have an idea of what the price will likely be once companies start importing. So, if the price we have now is not anywhere close to theirs, then we are not yet there. Another indicator should be the current price of diesel.”

However, Oyebanji mentioned that the price could also be reduced depending on the exchange rate.

He emphasized the availability of products everywhere and the potential for healthy competition among marketers. If prices are higher than those of nearby filling stations, marketers would be compelled to lower their prices to attract customers.

Osatuyi described the current price of petrol as a “transitional price,” expressing expectations for a roadmap from the Federal Government following subsidy removal.

“We are expecting the roadmap from the Federal Government following the meeting with labor. Labor has said they are giving the government two months to come up with the roadmap. We are also expecting the roadmap on how to deepen the use of Compressed Natural Gas,” Osatuyi

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Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Economy

Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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Economy

IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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