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Managing Subsidy Removal: Federal Government Prepares Roadmap for President-elect Bola Tinubu

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Bola Tinubu

In a proactive move aimed at providing guidance to the incoming administration of President-elect Bola Tinubu, the Federal Government of Nigeria has announced its plans to develop a comprehensive roadmap for the removal of subsidy on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol.

This initiative comes as the government seeks to navigate the complexities associated with subsidy removal while ensuring a smooth transition of power.

During the unveiling of the 2022-2026 Strategic Plan of the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) in Abuja, Boss Mustapha, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), highlighted the ongoing debates surrounding the subsidy removal by concerned citizens.

These discussions have focused on critical aspects such as refinery rehabilitation, safety nets for the vulnerable, and prudent management of the resulting revenues.

Mustapha emphasized the Federal Government’s commitment to following these debates closely and acknowledged the burden the country has borne over the years due to fuel subsidy. He also assured the public that a comprehensive position to guide the incoming administration was being formulated by the Presidential Transition Council, headed by himself.

While welcoming the ongoing debate on subsidy removal, Mustapha commended the outgoing administration of President Muhammadu Buhari for its efforts in effectively managing the subsidy burden, despite the numerous challenges faced by the Nigerian economy.

He specifically praised NEITI for providing a detailed policy advisory on fuel subsidy, which presented various options to assist the government in making an informed decision on the issue.

The NEITI policy advisory revealed a shocking revelation that over N13tn had been expended on subsidizing petroleum products between 2005 and 2021.

This staggering amount is equivalent to Nigeria’s entire budget allocation for key sectors like health, education, agriculture, and defense over the past five years. The adverse effects of this expenditure include reduced funding for vital sectors, ailing refineries, limited private sector investments, and inefficient supply chains leading to fuel scarcity.

Addressing NEITI’s 2022-2026 Strategic Plan, Mustapha outlined the government’s commitment to expanding the agency’s operations to sub-national levels and addressing emerging issues such as transparency in contracts and ownership, gender and environmental reporting, and energy transition. He urged all stakeholders to collaborate with NEITI to ensure the effective implementation of the strategic plan for the benefit of Nigeria and its citizens.

However, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) expressed concerns about the outgoing government’s move, stating that the incoming administration should hold discussions with critical stakeholders before implementing any guidelines for subsidy removal. Chief Ukadike Chinedu, the National Public Relations Officer of IPMAN, called for open dialogue to address the challenges surrounding petroleum product subsidy in Nigeria.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) also expressed its intention to engage in discussions with the incoming administration regarding the removal of petrol subsidy. As President-elect Bola Tinubu’s inauguration date draws near, the nation awaits the new government’s approach to striking a delicate balance between economic considerations and the welfare of the Nigerian people.

With the Federal Government taking proactive steps to develop a roadmap for subsidy removal, the onus now falls on the incoming administration to carefully analyze the proposed guidelines, engage with stakeholders, and make informed decisions that will steer the nation toward sustainable energy policies and economic growth.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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