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Nigeria’s External Reserves Dip by $1.57b in Q1 2023

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U.S dollar - Investors King

Nigeria’s external reserves have declined by $1.57bn in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, according to figures obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The country’s external reserves, which stood at $36.99bn as of the end of January 1, 2023, fell to $35.42bn as of the end of March 30, 2023.

The Governor of the CBN had attributed the decline to the fall in crude oil prices, and analysts at Cordros Securities believe that FX liquidity issues will remain over the short-to-medium term due to the low crude oil production and elevated PMS under-recovery costs.

They also stated that Foreign Portfolio Investors, who have historically supported supply levels in the Importers and Exporters Forex Window will be needed to sustain FX liquidity levels in the medium to long-term.

This decline in external reserves is a cause for concern as it could lead to a reduction in Nigeria’s ability to finance imports and service its debt obligations. The government and the CBN must take measures to address this issue by diversifying the economy and increasing non-oil exports.

Diversifying the economy will reduce Nigeria’s dependence on crude oil exports and increase its foreign exchange earnings.

The government should invest in sectors such as agriculture, solid minerals, and manufacturing to create jobs and boost economic growth.

Furthermore, the CBN should increase its efforts to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) by creating a favorable business environment and improving the ease of doing business in Nigeria. This will increase the inflow of foreign currency and help to stabilize the external reserves.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Naira

Demand Pressure Weakens Naira At Official FX Market

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The Naira fell 8.3 percent against the US Dollar at the official market, the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), as the local currency exchanged for the US Dollar at N1,669.15/$1 on Tuesday, October 2.

This meant the local currency slid by N127.21 from N1,541.94/$1 it closed at the previous session on Monday.

The official market was closed on Tuesday for the country’s 64th Independence Day.

As the fourth quarter commences, demand for FX has surged but recent efforts to bring some stability to the market through a series of auctions held by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for official dealers and Bureau de Change (BDCs) have not been able to tackle high seasonal demand.

Secondary data showed that there was a decrease in daily supply as the midweek turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $176.45 million, indicating that the session’s turnover dipped by 2.9 percent or $5.41 million compared to $181.86 million published in the last trading session.

The local currency was flat against the Pound Sterling and the Euro as it wrapped the session at N2,143.65/£1 and N1,789.71/€1, respectively.

At the black market, the Naira was relatively flat against the Dollar as it retained the recent trading value of N1,656.

In a different outcome, it pulled a N3 gain on the Pound Sterling at the segment to sell at N2,158/£1 from N2,161/€1 and also added N3 on the Euro to wrap the midweek session at N1,844/€1 from N1,847/€1.

The Naira weakened on the Canadian Dollar by N5 to end the day at N1,220/CAD from N1,215/CAD quoted on Tuesday.

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Naira

Naira Steady on Dollar, Gains on Pounds, Others as Nigeria Marks Independence

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 The Naira was steady against the Dollar on Tuesday, October 1, as it traded at N1,656 per Dollar at the unofficial foreign exchange (FX) market as the country marked its 64th Independence Day celebration.

It also gained against the British Pound Sterling, Euros, and Canadian Dollar.

The Naira rose by N8 on the English currency to sell at N2,161 per Pound from N2,169 and also rose N8 on the European currency to go from N1,855 in the recent day to N1,847 while it appreciated N13 on the Canadian Dollar to close at N1,215 from N1,228 on Tuesday.

The local currency which has faced volatility in recent months got relative ease after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sold a fresh batch of FX to authorised Bureau De Change (BDC) traders last week.

Throughout September, the CBN sold $20,000 twice to BDC operators to help meet the rising demand for foreign currency. On September 6, 2024, the CBN sold dollars to the BDCs at a rate of N1,580 per Dollar, and on September 25, 2024, at a rate of N1,590.

This intervention was aimed at reducing the pressure in the FX market and ensuring adequate liquidity for smaller traders. So the move saw demand spread away from the official channels and in turn, eased the value of the local currency.

At the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the domestic currency closed the month of September at N1,541.94 to the Dollar. It didn’t trade on Tuesday due to the holiday.

Upon resumption on Wednesday, the Naira could depreciate as pressure from Q4 seasonal demands could pile on it.

However, this could be prevented by external reserve buffers which have seen sharp increases in the last nine months.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country’s external reserves surged by 15.26% as of September 27, 2024, amounting to a $5.04 billion rise.

This development has pushed Nigeria’s total foreign currency reserves to $38.06 billion, up from $33.02 billion recorded at the beginning of the year.

 

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Naira

Naira Gains 2.29% Against Dollar as Forex Liquidity Declines

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The Naira gained 2.29% or N35.32 against the dollar to N1,540.78 per dollar from N1,576.10 reported on Thursday.

On a week-on-week basis, the Nigerian Naira gained 1% according to the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) data.

On Friday, the dollar supplied by willing buyers and sellers declined by 36.44 percent from $334.05 million on Thursday to $212.31 million at the NAFEM window.

Breaking down foreign currency supply for last week, the supply of dollars rose by 111.9%, from $100.21 million on Monday to $212.31 million on Friday.

It was noted that in the parallel market, also known as the black market, the Naira depreciated by N5 per dollar, from N1,695 on Thursday to N1,700 on Friday.

Moreover, during the week, the Naira fell by 2.1%, losing N35 compared to the N1,665 traded on Monday.

According to a statement signed by the Acting Director of the Trade and Exchange Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), W. J. Kenya, the CBN sold $60 million to commercial banks and provided dollars to Bureau De Change (BDC) operators at a rate of N1,590 per dollar to stabilise the foreign exchange market and improve liquidity.

It was also gathered that eligible BDCs could purchase up to $20,000 to meet the growing demand for invisible transactions, which include personal travel allowances, medical bills, and educational expenses.

However, BDC operators interested in the intervention are required to sell dollars to end-users at no more than a one percent margin above the CBN’s purchase rate, and they must deposit the required Naira equivalent in the CBN’s designated accounts while submitting the necessary documentation at specific branches located in Abuja, Awka, Kano, and Lagos.

“Our goal is to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market and ensure that eligible end-users can meet their transaction needs,” Kenya stated.

“This move is to ensure adequate liquidity and meet the growing demand for invisible transactions in the market,” the statement read.

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