The DMO held its monthly auction of FGN bonds on Monday (20 March ’23). It offered N360bn (USD780.1m) but raised N563.2bn (USD1.2bn) through re-openings of the 13.98% FGN FEB 2028, 12.50% FGN APR 2032, 16.25% FGN APR 2037, and 14.80% FGN APR 2049 FGN bonds.
The participation level (demand) at this auction declined by -22.6% to N808.4bn (USD1.7bn) compared with N991.9bn (USD2.1bn) recorded in February ’23. The bids for the 5, 9, 15, and 27-year benchmarks were allotted at the marginal rates of 14.00% (previously 13.90%), 14.75% (previously 14.90%), 15.20% (previously 15.90%), and 15.75% (previously 16.00%) respectively. Bid-to-cover stood at 1.4x
YTD the DMO has now raised NGN1.9trn at its bond auctions, exceeding its borrowing target (via FGN bonds) by 58.3% in Q1 ’23. It is clearly on track pro rata to meet the target for H1 2023.
The MPC/CBN raised the policy rate by 50bps to 18% at its latest meeting held in March. Further tightening is expected to offset the upward risk in price development and narrow the real interest rate gap. There was a slight uptick in the average FGN bond yield following the 50bps rate hike. We note that MPR – Inflation is currently at -3.9%.
The domestic institutions are still the core buyers of the bonds, which accounted for 61.5% of the assets under management of the PFAs at end-December ‘22. Some foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) outside the payments pipeline may be tempted back into the market by a little more retracement. More likely in our view, the domestic institutions will again make the running and the FPIs will generally stick with less complicated trades with similar (or better) returns elsewhere.
Looking ahead we expect a small boost to system liquidity due to an FGN bond maturity, NTB maturity, bond coupon payments and an OMO maturity in April and May. These maturities and coupon payments collectively amount to N1.45trn. A slight moderation in the avenge yield of fixed income instruments is likely.
In H2 2023 liquidity is expected to reduce while domestic borrowing increases, potentially resulting in further upticks in yields. However, the level of system liquidity largely impacted by items such as auctions, CRR debits/refunds, bond/NTB maturities and coupon payments would influence the movement in yields.
Over the next month, we see the mid-curve FGN bond yields around 13.7% – 14.9% and yields at the longer end of the curve between 13.5% – 15.8%.
Drastic Decline in FGN Bond Listings Raises Concerns Over Government Borrowing
Data from the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) has shown that the value of listed Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Bonds on the exchange experienced a decline of 99.9% in the eight months ending on August 31, 2023.
Plummeting from N1.6 trillion recorded during the corresponding period in 2022 to a mere N148.2 billion.
The stark contrast in FGN Bond listings between the two years has raised eyebrows and prompted experts to delve into the implications of this significant shift.
Analysis of NGX data revealed that the bonds listed this year primarily consisted of the FGN Savings Bond and Sukuk, whereas the previous year featured a combination of both Federal Government Bonds and Savings Bonds.
Among the listings, the FGN Sukuk stood out with the highest recorded value of N130 billion for the period under review.
Analysts have identified several factors contributing to the stark decline in FGN Bond listings.
David Adonri, an analyst and Vice Executive Chairman at HighCap Securities Limited, commented on this development, and said, “The reduction of FGN Bond listing could be an indication that the government borrowed less in the domestic market, and its implication is that it could affect liquidity in the secondary market.”
He continued, “The decline could also be that the FGN Bonds were not listed on the Exchange during the period under review as only the Savings Bonds were captured as well as Sukuk.”
Adonri highlighted concerns about the country’s debt profile, both domestically and internationally, saying, “Both externally and internally, the immediate past government had taken more debt. This is increasing the risk of sovereign default and economic nightmares.” He also noted the adverse effects on the real sector, explaining that “the borrowing has now reached the alarming point of crowding out the productive real sector.”
Tajudeen Olayinka, an Investment Banker and Stockbroker, echoed similar sentiments, saying, “If there was an increase in debt listings in the market, it brings about increased liquidity and trading activities in the market, but the drop in the eight-month period could be largely as a result of higher yields in other competing instruments.”
Olayinka also speculated that “the drop in the FGN Bond listing could also be that there was less borrowing by the government in the primary market so not much to offer for listing in the secondary market.”
DMO’s July 2023 FGN Offering Oversubscribed by 182.73 Percent
The Debt Management Office (DMO) on Wednesday reported that its July 2023 Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) bond offering received overwhelming investor interest, surpassing all expectations with an oversubscription rate of 182.73 percent.
The DMO, responsible for managing the nation’s debt, reopened the market for two 10-year, one 15-year, and one 30-year FGN bonds, collectively valued at N657.84 billion.
The July 2023 offering also recorded a month-on-month increase of 39.03 percent, equivalent to N184.68 billion when compared to the N473.16 billion sold in June 2023.
This was revealed in the FMDQ Exchange financial markets monthly report for July, which was released on Wednesday.
The oversubscribed FGN bond offering in July, combined with the impressive performance in the treasury bills market, where the DMO sold bills valued at N406.10 billion, underscores Nigeria’s fiscal strength.
During the month under review, the Central Bank of Nigeria did not conduct any public OMO bills auctions within the period under review.
The average FGN bond coupon rates in July 2023 dipped across 10-year, 15-year and 30-year segments to 13.05 percent, 14.10 percent and 14.30 percent respectively.
It was also reported that there were no corporate bonds listed on FMDQ Exchange in July 2023 compared to N17.50bn worth of corporate bonds listed in June 2023.
Saudi Arabia Executes $9.5 Billion Debt Buyback and Sukuk Issuance
Saudi Arabia has completed an early purchase of more than 35.7 billion riyals ($9.5 billion) of outstanding debt and will issue about 35.9 billion riyals in sukuk as the kingdom plans to bolster its domestic market.
The government bought a portion of its debt instruments maturing in 2024, 2025 and 2026, the National Debt Management Center said in a statement on Sunday.
The buyback represents the largest early purchase transaction arranged by NDMC.
The Saudi government will issue new sukuk worth 35.9 billion riyals under the Local Saudi Sukuk Issuance Program, NDMC said. The program will be divided into four tranches, with issuances maturing in 2031, 2032, 2033 and 2038.
The initiative is part of NDMC’s efforts to strengthen the domestic market and “to keep up with market developments which have been reflected positively on the growing trading volume in the secondary market,” the agency said.
The transaction will also align NDMC’s efforts with other initiatives to enhance public finances in the medium and long term. HSBC Saudi Arabia, Al Rajhi Capital, SNB Capital, and AlJazira Capital have been appointed as joint lead managers to lead the transaction.
News4 weeks ago
Npower Program Restores Hope with Long-Awaited Stipend Disbursement
Commodities4 weeks ago
Three Chinese Groups Vying to Acquire $2 Billion Botswana Copper Mine
News3 weeks ago
Government Plans to Revamp Npower Scheme and Combat Poverty
Banking Sector4 weeks ago
Guaranty Trust Holding Co. Surpasses Expectations with $468 Million Forex Windfall
Forex3 weeks ago
Black Market Dollar to Naira Today, September 7th, 2023
Government4 weeks ago
French Influence Wanes in Africa: Is Macron’s Africa Policy Doomed?
Black Market Rate4 weeks ago
Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, 2nd September 2023
Cryptocurrency4 weeks ago
Ripple Labs Objects to SEC’s Request for Appeal in Landmark Cryptocurrency Case