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Return to Trade Surplus in 2022

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By Coronation Merchant Bank Economic Research

The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade in goods shows the total value of trade declined by -4.5% q/q to N11.7trn in Q4 ’22. This is the third consecutive q/q decline recorded. On a y/y basis, it rose marginally by 0.1%.

The total export value increased by 7.2% q/q to N6.4trn compared with N5.9trn recorded in Q3’22 while the import value declined by -15.5% q/q to N5.4trn from N6.3trn. The net result was a surplus of N996.8bn vs a deficit of -N409.4trn recorded in Q3 ‘22. Total trade as a percentage of nominal GDP (2022) stood at 5.9% in Q4 ’22 compared with 6.2% recorded in Q3 ’22.

For FY2022, the total value of trade was N52.4trn compared to N39.7trn recorded in FY2021. Total export value for FY2022 increased by 41.7% y/y to N26.8trn. Meanwhile, import value also increased by 22.7% y/y to N25.6trn in 2022 from N20.8trn recorded in 2021. The net result was a surplus of N1.2trn compared with a deficit of -N1.9trn recorded in FY2021. Total trade as a percentage of nominal GDP (2022) stood at 26.3% in 2022 vs 22.9% recorded in 2021, (using 2021 nominal GDP).

According to the NBS, most imports in Q4 ’22 originated from China (N1.4trn). This was followed by Belgium (N585.6bn), India (N368.9bn), Netherlands (N365.3bn), and the United States (N319.2bn). These five countries collectively accounted for 55.8% of the total imports in Q4 ’22. The value of imported manufactured products and oil-related products declined by -14.3% q/q and -18.2% q/q respectively.
Imported agricultural goods also declined by -13.3% q/q.

Imports from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) stood at N55.4bn in Q4 ‘22, accounting for 30.7% of total imports within the region. Regarding export destinations, Spain (N617.2bn) was the top exporting partner for Nigeria in Q4 ’22, followed by the Netherlands (N517.6bn), India (N490.4bn), France (N489.8bn) and Indonesia (N473.3bn). These five countries collectively accounted for 41.6% of the total exports in Q4 ’22.

Crude oil accounted for the largest share (77.8%) of total exports in Q4 ’22 and increased by 5.4% q/q to N4.9trn in Q4 ’22 compared with a decline of -21.2%q/q recorded in the previous quarter. The q/q increase in the value of total crude exported can be partly attributed to improved oil production due to the FGN’s recent efforts towards tackling crude oil theft and vandalism.

Based on data from the NBS, average crude oil production (condensates inclusive) in Q4 was 1.34mbpd compared with 1.20mbpd in the previous quarter and 1.50mbpd in Q4 ‘21. This is lower than the OPEC production quota for Nigeria pegged at 1.8mbpd and the FGN’s production benchmark of 1.7mbpd.

As for non-oil exports, superior quality cocoa beans, sesamum seeds, cashew nuts in shell, superior quality cocoa, other frozen shrimps and prawns, shelled cashew nuts, crude palm kernel oil, natural coca butter, ginger and soya beans featured as the top export commodities in Q4 ’22.

Nigeria exported goods worth N553.7bn to fellow members of the ECOWAS in Q4 ‘22, compared with N507.9bn in Q3 ’22. This represented 58.7% of total exports within Africa.

The most active port during the period was the Apapa Port. Goods worth N5.8trn exited the country through this port and accounted for 91% of total exports. Other ports widely used include Port Harcourt (N341.9bn) and Tin can Island (N159.3bn).

Global/Regional in focus

According to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), merchandise trade increased by 13.4% y/y or USD1.5trn to USD12.8trn in Q3 ’22 compared with USD11.2trn recorded in the corresponding period of 2021. Meanwhile, on a q/q basis, total merchandise trade declined marginally by -0.9% reflecting disruptions in supply chains due to the impact from the ongoing Russian-Ukraine crisis and a slowdown in economic
activities on the back of global recession concerns triggered by rising inflation and monetary policy tightening in both advanced and emerging economies.

We understand that Russia has agreed to extend the Black Sea Grain deal for an additional 60 days (2 months) after uncertainties regarding the continuity of the initiative mounted as the original expiration date of 18 March ’23 drew near. According to data from the United Nations, c.24.1 million tonnes of grains (corn, wheat, barley, sunflower oil among others) have been exported through 1600 vessels to both advanced and emerging economies, highlighting the vital role that the Black Sea Initiative has played in promoting global food security.

Turning to China, merchandise exports to other countries increased by 6.6%q/q to USD970.6bn in Q3 ’22 compared with USD910.4bn recorded in Q2 ’22. We note that the Chinese authorities have phased out the zero-covid policy and reopened the economy. As evidenced by the growth recorded in China’s PMI (52.6 as at February ’23 vs 50.1 recorded in January ’23), the reopening is expected to spur economic activities and minimize production disruptions in the manufacturing sector.

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Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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