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IEA Report Boosts Oil Prices Despite U.S. Stock Build

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Oil prices rose on Thursday, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted strong demand from China will lead to a record 101.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is measured, gained 0.5% to $85.80 per barrel while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose 0.6% to $79.07 per barrel, despite the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report of a 16.3 million barrel build in U.S. crude oil stocks last week, the largest increase since June 2021.

China is expected to account for almost half of the global oil demand growth next year, as it relaxes COVID-19 curbs. However, the surge in U.S. production and swelling inventories, combined with a broad recovery in the U.S. dollar, could limit oil price gains.

The IEA predicts that 1 million bpd of oil production will be shut down by the end of the first quarter, following the European ban on seaborne imports and international price cap sanctions, Investors King reports.

Analysts at Commonwealth Bank have noted that OPEC+ will not look to boost output to compensate for lower Russian output, which means that the onus will be on the United States and other non-OPEC producers to boost output to meet any incremental increase in global oil demand.

Founder of Vanda Insights, Vandana Hari, sees the upward thrust of China, OPEC, and the IEA’s optimistic outlook on oil demand as countering the weight of the U.S. oil stock-build. However, she does not see much more headroom just yet.

Overall, oil prices are expected to swing in a narrow range, caught between the divergent demand-supply dynamics. The narrative of a strong demand revival from China and the prospects of Russia-linked output cuts are jacking up oil prices. However, steadily rising U.S. production and swelling inventories, combined with a broad recovery in the U.S. dollar, act as headwinds for oil prices.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Continue to Slide: Drops Over 1% Amid Surging U.S. Stockpiles

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Amidst growing concerns over surging U.S. stockpiles and indications of static output policies from major oil-producing nations, oil prices declined for a second consecutive day by 1% on Wednesday.

Brent crude oil, against which the Nigerian oil price is measured, shed 97 cents or 1.12% to $85.28 per barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped by 93 cents or a 1.14% fall to close at $80.69.

The recent downtrend in oil prices comes after they reached their highest level since October last week.

However, ongoing concerns regarding burgeoning U.S. crude inventories and uncertainties surrounding potential inaction by the OPEC+ group in their forthcoming technical meeting have exacerbated the downward momentum.

Market analysts attribute the decline to expectations of minimal adjustments to oil output policies by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, until a full ministerial meeting scheduled for June.

In addition to concerns about excess supply, the market’s attention is also focused on the impending release of official government data on U.S. crude inventories, scheduled for Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

Analysts are keenly observing OPEC members for any signals of deviation from their production quotas, suggesting further volatility may lie ahead in the oil market.

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Brent Crude Approaches $86 Following Moscow Attacks

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions following the devastating terrorist attacks in Moscow, global oil markets rose with Brent crude oil hitting a $86 price level.

The tragic events in the Russian capital, which claimed the lives of over 130 innocent civilians, sent shockwaves through international communities and rattled energy markets already grappling with supply uncertainties.

Speculation surrounding the attacks, claimed by the Islamic State but with hints of potential Ukrainian involvement from Russian President Vladimir Putin, intensified concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies.

Also, ongoing drone strikes by Ukraine targeting Russian infrastructure further exacerbated worries about the stability of crude oil production and refining capabilities in the region.

The mounting geopolitical unrest in key oil-producing regions has injected a sense of urgency into the market, with investors closely monitoring developments for potential impacts on global supply and demand dynamics.

Despite recent fluctuations, crude oil is poised for a third consecutive monthly gain, buoyed by efforts from the OPEC+ alliance to maintain production cuts and bolstered by tightening US sanctions on Russian energy exports.

The bullish sentiment is further supported by positive commentary on the broader commodities outlook, with central banks signaling potential interest rate reductions to stimulate economic growth, thus underpinning industrial and consumer demand for raw materials.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the trajectory of oil prices, citing a delicate balance between supply risks and supportive macroeconomic factors amidst the backdrop of geopolitical turmoil.

As Brent crude inches closer to the $86 threshold, market participants brace for continued volatility amid unfolding geopolitical developments.

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Indian Refiners Shun Russian Crude Carried by Sovcomflot Tankers Amidst US Sanctions

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Indian refiners have taken a bold stance by refusing to accept Russian crude oil carried on PJSC Sovcomflot tankers, citing stringent US sanctions.

This decision marks a significant shift in India’s energy strategy and underscores the profound impact of global politics on the oil trade.

The move comes in the wake of heightened scrutiny on Sovcomflot tankers following sanctions imposed by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.

Designating Sovcomflot and identifying specific crude oil tankers, the US has intensified its efforts to clamp down on entities linked to Russia, particularly in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion.

Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp., Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd., and Nayara Energy Ltd. have all halted the acceptance of cargoes carried on Sovcomflot vessels.

This unified action underscores the severity of the situation, with refiners diligently scrutinizing tanker ownership to ensure compliance with sanctions.

The repercussions of this decision are reverberating throughout the oil market, leading to disruptions in the supply chain and altering trade dynamics.

With fewer tankers available to transport Russian crude, the pricing landscape has undergone a significant shift, with discounts narrowing to compensate for higher freight costs.

Despite the challenges posed by sanctions and supply chain disruptions, India remains a key player in the global oil market.

However, the decision to shun Russian crude on Sovcomflot tankers reflects a strategic recalibration in response to evolving geopolitical realities, underscoring the complex interplay between politics and energy security on the world stage.

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