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Cautiously Optimistic

The euro is a little higher on the day against the dollar after CPI data for the currency bloc slowed to 10%, far below market expectations of around 10.4%

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Equity markets are off to a positive start on Wednesday as we await a slew of big economic releases and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

It’s already been a very headline-driven week, particularly where oil is concerned, while Covid restrictions and protests in China have very much set the tone in Asia, and to a lesser extent elsewhere.

The headwinds facing China are intensifying and the protests of recent days could make it even more challenging to navigate. That said, what we’ve heard so far has been promising and potentially indicative of a plan that was already in the works.

But we shouldn’t kid ourselves. In the event that China commits 100% to its vaccine drive, especially among the elderly and vulnerable, the move away from zero Covid will take time as the virus spreads rapidly throughout the country necessitating swift action to control the spread. Even the best-case scenario is one of significant turbulence for the world’s second-largest economy next year.

Chinese PMIs highlight the challenges ahead

The PMIs highlight just how difficult the situation is in China, with the zero-Covid stance combined with the property market crackdown severely impacting domestic sentiment, while a slowing global economy weighs on external demand. With both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs falling deeper into contraction territory than anticipated, the country really has a mountain to climb in order to achieve decent, consistent growth once more.

Some rare good news on inflation

The euro is a little higher on the day against the dollar after CPI data for the currency bloc slowed to 10%, far below market expectations of around 10.4%. While still extraordinarily high, it does offer hope that inflation may have peaked and the deceleration could be faster than anticipated, in much the same way it was on the way up.

The single currency was choppy in the aftermath of the release, while markets now view the possibility of a 50 or 75 basis points hike in December as a coin flip after previously heavily favouring the latter. That could be a positive for the euro if it means less of an economic slump, with the bloc already likely heading for recession.

Immense uncertainty

It was always shaping up to be a volatile week in oil markets and it’s certainly living up to that. Brent and WTI are up more than 2% on Wednesday as the EU continues to work towards an agreeable price cap on Russian crude and OPEC+ consider another large production cut this weekend.

Both carry significant uncertainty and a wide range of outcomes that should ensure oil remains volatile in the coming days, especially if both go into the weekend still up in the air. When OPEC+ can’t even commit to meeting in person, you know nothing is straightforward.

Despite rumours circulating of another possible two million barrel cut, it wouldn’t come as a surprise for OPEC+ to hold off on this occasion and wait until everything becomes clearer on the price cap and China. Nor would it be alarming for the alliance to wait a couple of extra days for details on the cap which could be more easily factored into its forecast and decision. This may be why they’ve opted for a virtual meeting as it offers more flexibility.

Rallying ahead of Powell’s appearance

Gold is benefiting from improved risk appetite as the dollar softens and US yields edge lower. It remains very much within the same range though, between $1730 support and $1,780 resistance as we await some major economic reports and, of course, the speech from Jerome Powell. Whether the Fed Chair will be so bold as to say something that could have a material impact on the yellow metal when there is some major data due over the next couple of weeks, I’m not so sure. But there’s certainly a risk he will and a break of either of these levels could be significant.

Rising for now

Bitcoin is making steady gains in the session, up more than 2% and eyeing a second positive session. It did run into resistance around $1,700 again, the upper end of its range over the last couple of weeks. While we could see a bigger correction to the upside, especially if we’re treated to some dovish commentary from Powell, I’m not convinced it would be anything more than that. The industry has been shaken by the FTX collapse and as a result, bitcoin could remain vulnerable to further plunges in the price.

Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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