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A Promising Response to Protests

Stocks in China soared after a difficult start to the week, on the hope that the country’s zero-Covid policy stance may be relaxed further.

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Investors in Europe remain in a cautious mood on Tuesday as they await a huge influx of economic data in the coming days, while US futures are also pointing to modest gains ahead of the open.

Stocks in China soared after a difficult start to the week, on the hope that the country’s zero-Covid policy stance may be relaxed further. That had been the expectation in recent weeks, with a modest softening recently seen being followed by a more substantial shift in the spring.

But protests in recent days on the back of record Covid cases and tighter restrictions could have gone either way and that made investors extremely anxious on Monday. While I can imagine the path from zero-Covid to zero restrictions will be long and full of potholes and hurdles, the response to the unrest has appeared more promising than feared.

It may well be that the leadership had already been gauging the public mood on restrictions and had, as has been rumoured, already been planning its exit strategy which recent comments align with. Either way, it appears zero-Covid has reached a crossroads and the direction of travel now will determine investor appetite toward Chinese stocks going into 2023. Today’s rebound suggests there’s some optimism.

So much uncertainty in the oil markets

It’s already been a very volatile week in oil markets and that’s unlikely to change over the coming days given the immense uncertainty over the Russian price cap, China’s Covid stance, and the OPEC+ meeting. The market is being led by speculation and leaks, of which there have been plenty and will likely be much more, which makes for very lively conditions given the wide array of possible outcomes.

And as you’d expect, all of the above are linked to varying degrees. A record surge in Covid cases is leading to tightening restrictions weighing on activity, spurring protests, and forcing a rethink of the country’s zero-Covid policy. They’ve also weighed heavily on prices with China being the world’s second-largest economy which will impact the demand forecasts from OPEC+ unless the group opts to hold on and await more clear signals and data.

Also influencing the group’s analysis will be Russian sanctions, most notably the price cap which is yet to be fully agreed upon. The latest rumours suggest the cap could be agreed to as low as $62 which is much lower than the $65-70 previously leaked and could therefore have a bigger impact on Russian output. And of course, Russia itself is a key member of the OPEC+ alliance, just to complicate matters further and could throw its weight around in those discussions and make an agreement harder and more uncertain.

Oh and the EU does have a tendency to make full use of deadlines, with the next sanctions due to come into force the day after OPEC+ meets, which is of course on a Sunday for some reason. Not that the alliance always comes to quick agreements and on this occasion, you could easily forgive them for not. Needless to say, this is certainly a recipe for volatile trading conditions.

Volatile and awaiting key US data

Gold is rallying again on Tuesday on the back of a softer dollar but has only largely wiped out Monday’s losses leaving it basically net even on the week. I expect to see plenty more volatility in the coming days given the amount of US economic data that are being released including inflation, GDP, and the jobs report. That sets us up nicely as we move into the final month of the year with only a couple of weeks to go until the hotly anticipated CPI inflation report and Fed meeting.

Choppy and vulnerable

Bitcoin has also reversed its Monday losses, rallying 1.5% so far today. The cryptocurrency has remained volatile in the aftermath of another plunge following the FTX collapse and now trades more than 75% from its highs just over a year ago. Even now it remains vulnerable as we continue to discover what the full contagion effect will be and what else will be uncovered.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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